This blog has certainly enjoyed wearing out various trade scenarios for one Kobe Bryant, and the plausibility of one coming to fruition has never seemed higher. The leading candidate remains the Chicago Bulls, with rumors having the Lakers asking for Deng, Gordon, Thomas and Noah, and the Bulls and Kobe rejecting it - Kobe can reject it because he has a no-trade clause, and can turn down a deal if he deems it leaves his new team too depleted. The Bulls Paxson is known for playing hardball, and despite the media fit if it happens (imagine the Chicago Tribune headlines when it turns out they turned down getting MJ version 2), I halfway suspect they won't make the deal. The most plausible version may involve salary cap chicanery that has PJ Brown sign and traded with a 1-year contract (but never having to report for work as a Laker) along with 2 or 3 of those 4 youngsters.
If Kupchak is dumb and feels he has to deal Kobe to the Eastern conference, the Wiz and Gilbert Arenas look like the most likely deal; Kobe is thereby reunited with his friend Caron Butler. I think that is likely the worst deal the Lakers could make. But if Kupchak gets smart and trades for the best deal instead of insisting on sending Kobe East, new possibilities arise. The Mavs are one - while they won't swap Dirk, their love affair with Devin Harris won't get in the way of a deal. But salary cap restrictions mean a deal gets a bit complicated - the most plausible looks like Josh Howard plus Devin Harris plus some crappy bigs (Dampier, Mbenga) for Kobe + Radmanovic (whose snowboarding exploits and big contract make him a prime trade candidate for Lakers brass). The Mavs would still have Diop, Dirk, Stackhouse, Kobe and Jet Terry, plus various other bench parts, so this looks doable.
But my favorite deal (from a Laker standpoint) rumored so far is with the Suns, with Kobe heading to the Valley of the Sun for Barbosa, Marion, and the Suns-owned Hawks #1 pick in 2008. (It works under the cap). If I'm the Lakers, I can't imagine they'd get a better deal than that - not even from Dallas. And Phoenix would solve their Marion-Stoudamire standoff and give Nash some fearsome weapons. But, no bench. Could Phoenix win the title by playing Stoudamire, Diaw, GHill, Bell, Kobe, and Nash and almost no one else? I'd love to find out, for both their sakes and the Lakers.
Monday, October 29, 2007
Sunday, October 28, 2007
fearless NBA predictions 2007-8
NBA predictions 2007-8:
Eastern Conference (ranked by playoff seed):
TEAM PROJECTED RECORD PROJECTED DIV. FINISH
1. Detroit Pistons 56-26 1st in Central
Sheed looks motivated, their bench may well be better, and they play well together. Plus, they won’t have to cover for CWebb on D.
2. Chicago Bulls 52-30 2nd in Central
I suspect the roster will change before Jan 2008, as I expect Kobe to become a Bull before New Year’s. How that will kill their chemistry will not become completely clear until the playoffs.
3. Boston Celtics 48-34 1st in Atlantic
The Big 3 will mostly mesh well, but Pierce and Allen may have health and/or chemistry issues by season’s end, and their weak bench will doom them in the playoffs. I expect Big Baby Davis to deserve major rotation minutes by then….
4. Atlanta Hawks 45-37 1st in Southeast
The shocker: someone has to win the division, and here they are, led by all-star Joe Johnson and the deepest team in the division. Al Horford will deserve the award, but with Durant’s pub will probably finish 2nd in ROY voting.
5. Cleveland Cavaliers 50-32 3rd in Central
LeBron will coast through a good portion of the schedule again, and his supporting cast is another year older, mostly a bad thing. Plus, Varejao remains unsigned… so my expectations are coming down a tad.
6. Miami Heat 44-38 2nd in Southeast
The Heat are an tough to predict this year, as the health of their big 2 and the chemistry issues with Ricky Davis multiply uncertainties. Still, the team is better with Davis taking A. Walker’s minutes, and Shaq and Wade should both play 50-60 games. In the weak East, that gets them in.
7. Orlando Magic 43-39 3rd in Southeast
Not a fan of R. Lewis or J. Nelson, but D Howard looks like he’s becoming a true beast. That plus getting something from Redick and Turkoglu should assure a playoff spot.
8. Toronto Raptors 43-39 2nd in Atlantic
They overachieved last year, but have a roster that should still play well together. Absent serious injury problems (esp to Bosh), I think they make it.
----out of playoffs:
9. New Jersey Nets 38-44 3rd in Atlantic
Vinsanity will coast with his new deal, RJeff will clang jumpers and/or get hurt, and Kidd will wish he had Olympians to pass to and will probably push behind the scenes for a trade.
10. Charlotte Bobcats 37-45 4th in Southeast
I agree with Hollinger – if Sean May didn’t get hurt, they’d have made the playoffs. Losing Adam Morrison helps, sad as it is to say. But GWallace is likely to get hurt at some point, dooming their playoff push.
11. Washington Wizards 35-47 5th in Southeast
Selfish gunners with no D, but older and slower and recovering from surgery. Yuck.
12. Milwaukee Bucks 35-47 4th in Central
Bad chemistry from the PGs who wanted to go to Miami in free agency, but stayed because of money/ restricted status. Plus, Yi (the bust) will play rotation minutes and kill them – cf Adam Morrison last season. That offsets improvement from Bogut.
13. New York Knicks 34-48 4th in Atlantic
The Knicks should be able to score, just because the NBA doesn’t call 3 seconds much and Curry and Randolph will do plenty of damage down low against the league tendency towards smaller, quicker bigs. But that same tendency will exacerbate their already lamentable defense, and their overrated guards (Marbury, Crawford, etc) may melt down if required to feed the post nonstop. By season’s end, it could be ugly in the media and on the team.
14. Indiana Pacers 29-53 5th in Central
The Pacers have a slow roster with trouble shooting and a big man who doesn’t want to be there and thinks he’s better than he actually is. And though I like Jim O’Brien, he’s no Rick Carlisle as a coach. Pain awaits.
15. Philadelphia 76ers 23-59 5th in Atlantic
As it becomes clear that Andre Miller is their best player, but well past his prime, and Iguodala merely tantalizes, this becomes the go-nowhere team for the next 5 years.
Playoffs: Miami upsets Boston and Orlando knocks off Kobe’s Bulls in the first round, joining Detroit and Cleveland. Detroit and Miami make the Eastern finals, where in a shocker, DWade makes a case that he deserved KG’s MVP trophy and the Heat have one last hurrah in the Finals.
Western Conference (ranked by playoff seed):
TEAM PROJECTED RECORD PROJECTED DIV. FINISH
1. Dallas Mavericks 59-23 1st in Southwest
They’ll slip from 67 wins, but remain the best regular season team in the league. Dirk will lose MVP to KG, but will have another fabulous season.
2. Houston Rockets 58-24 2nd in Southwest
Adelman’s been a great regular season coach, and Scola is a nice pickup. PG could be an issue, but they have multiple options there. Assuming McGrady’s back specialist keeps doing his magic, they look like a terrific team.
3. Phoenix Suns 54-28 1st in Pacific
The league is beginning to adjust to their style, and with their penurious owner’s personnel expulsions, their depth is now tissue thin. If the Stoudamire-Marion envyfest isn’t resolved, it could be a tough season, and I think their title dreams left with Nash’s bloody nose and the suspensions in last year’s playoffs.
4. Utah Jazz 50-32 1st in Northwest
Kirilenko will either be happier or traded, and Ronnie Brewer’s emergence will stabilize their 2-guard situation. Even if Boozer misses 20 games, they look like the class of the Northwest. If he misses 60, though….
5. San Antonio Spurs 56-26 3rd in Southwest
I think this is the year that some of the triumvirate of Parker/ Ginobili/ Duncan miss some serious time, although I expect them back healthy for the playoffs – and the veteran Popovich will be fine with that.
6. Denver Nuggets 47-35 2nd in Northwest
Questions galore: will Camby, Nene and Kmart stay healthy? Will AI and Melo shoot them into or out of more games? And can they find a decent PG?
7. Golden State Warriors 45-37 2nd in Pacific
Nellie’s show has Biedrins improving and good possibilities on defense, as (with the exception of Monta Ellis) their rotation players can all switch the pick and roll without mismatch problems thanks to their big guards/ swingmen. As long as Baron Davis stays healthy (admittedly a large conditional), I think they’re playoff bound.
8. Los Angeles Lakers 41-41 3rd in Pacific
The Lakers have depth, and are soon to be even deeper with the multiple players coming to town for Kobe. Once those fellows arrive and Kobe leaves, the pall will lift and the Lakers will make a late playoff push to come from behind to grab the 8th seed, led by new stars Luol Deng and Joakim Noah.
----out of playoffs:
9. New Orleans Hornets 39-43 4th in Southwest
Chris Paul should be an offensive juggernaut, and Chandler a defensive force. Unfortunately, they don’t have enough else to put them into the playoffs, and will rue the contract they gave Peja every day until it ends.
10. Memphis Grizzlies 38-44 5th in Southwest
A healthy Spanish tandem, a terrific young PG combo in Lowry and Conley, and Miller’s marksmanship from 3 – what’s not to like? Defense. But they should play entertaining ball under Phoenix transplant Iavaroni, at least.
11. Seattle SuperSonics 33-49 3rd in Northwest
Their young bigs are theoretically healthy, and you would think losing Lewis and Allen as swingmen would improve their D, however much it hurts their offense. You’d be wrong, as Durant will be a sieve. But he’ll score and board a bit (18 and 7 look about right) and get the ROY in a developmental year of what figures to be a long career in the great wet Northwest – or so the good citizens of Seattle hope.
12. Portland Trail Blazers 28-54 4th in Northwest
No Oden, Roy is hurting, and… they have four or five PGs and little interior defense. In 5 years they should be really good, but this year will be tough.
13. Sacramento Kings 26-56 4th in Pacific
The Kings have some good players – Martin, Artest – and Miller has reported in his best shape in a while. That said, they still may play the worst D around – well, except for the two teams still below them. Which are:
14. Los Angeles Clippers 24-58 5th in Pacific
The Clips looked like an old and selfish team last year; a year later, they lost their best player by far and otherwise did nothing to improve, and even didn’t address the player-coach locker-room cancer, letting Maggette fester all offseason, As he enters free agency next summer, think he’ll worry about anything but gunning? Their only hope is Elton’s early return, but he likely will never be the same player as before the Achilles snapped.
15. Minnesota Timberwolves 20-62 5th in Northwest
The Wolves went 32-50 with Garnett, and should not be better without him. Well, actually, they might on offense – but their defense should be sufficiently horrid as to overwhelm any offensive improvement - especially as the refs don't let youngsters get away with much on defense. But now, they have hope for the future – it was the right move, even if it came a year or 2 too late.
Playoffs: Dallas, Houston, Phoenix and the Spurs win the first round as expected. Dallas takes out the Spurs in an epic 2nd round, and Houston whips the Suns. And home court proves huge as Dallas whips the Rockets in 7 in the conference finals, setting up:
Finals: The rematch, Mavericks against Heat! Mark Cuban promises to have a team of retired refs analyze every call DWade gets as the series begins. The Mavs run Shaq ragged and hack him relentlessly, and sweep the first two; Miami gets 2 /3 at home, and the Mavs finally win the title in game 6 back home. Dirk is Finals MVP and lets all who questioned him have it with both barrels in the postgame news conference.
Regular season: MVP – KG. ROY- Durant.
Comments?
Eastern Conference (ranked by playoff seed):
TEAM PROJECTED RECORD PROJECTED DIV. FINISH
1. Detroit Pistons 56-26 1st in Central
Sheed looks motivated, their bench may well be better, and they play well together. Plus, they won’t have to cover for CWebb on D.
2. Chicago Bulls 52-30 2nd in Central
I suspect the roster will change before Jan 2008, as I expect Kobe to become a Bull before New Year’s. How that will kill their chemistry will not become completely clear until the playoffs.
3. Boston Celtics 48-34 1st in Atlantic
The Big 3 will mostly mesh well, but Pierce and Allen may have health and/or chemistry issues by season’s end, and their weak bench will doom them in the playoffs. I expect Big Baby Davis to deserve major rotation minutes by then….
4. Atlanta Hawks 45-37 1st in Southeast
The shocker: someone has to win the division, and here they are, led by all-star Joe Johnson and the deepest team in the division. Al Horford will deserve the award, but with Durant’s pub will probably finish 2nd in ROY voting.
5. Cleveland Cavaliers 50-32 3rd in Central
LeBron will coast through a good portion of the schedule again, and his supporting cast is another year older, mostly a bad thing. Plus, Varejao remains unsigned… so my expectations are coming down a tad.
6. Miami Heat 44-38 2nd in Southeast
The Heat are an tough to predict this year, as the health of their big 2 and the chemistry issues with Ricky Davis multiply uncertainties. Still, the team is better with Davis taking A. Walker’s minutes, and Shaq and Wade should both play 50-60 games. In the weak East, that gets them in.
7. Orlando Magic 43-39 3rd in Southeast
Not a fan of R. Lewis or J. Nelson, but D Howard looks like he’s becoming a true beast. That plus getting something from Redick and Turkoglu should assure a playoff spot.
8. Toronto Raptors 43-39 2nd in Atlantic
They overachieved last year, but have a roster that should still play well together. Absent serious injury problems (esp to Bosh), I think they make it.
----out of playoffs:
9. New Jersey Nets 38-44 3rd in Atlantic
Vinsanity will coast with his new deal, RJeff will clang jumpers and/or get hurt, and Kidd will wish he had Olympians to pass to and will probably push behind the scenes for a trade.
10. Charlotte Bobcats 37-45 4th in Southeast
I agree with Hollinger – if Sean May didn’t get hurt, they’d have made the playoffs. Losing Adam Morrison helps, sad as it is to say. But GWallace is likely to get hurt at some point, dooming their playoff push.
11. Washington Wizards 35-47 5th in Southeast
Selfish gunners with no D, but older and slower and recovering from surgery. Yuck.
12. Milwaukee Bucks 35-47 4th in Central
Bad chemistry from the PGs who wanted to go to Miami in free agency, but stayed because of money/ restricted status. Plus, Yi (the bust) will play rotation minutes and kill them – cf Adam Morrison last season. That offsets improvement from Bogut.
13. New York Knicks 34-48 4th in Atlantic
The Knicks should be able to score, just because the NBA doesn’t call 3 seconds much and Curry and Randolph will do plenty of damage down low against the league tendency towards smaller, quicker bigs. But that same tendency will exacerbate their already lamentable defense, and their overrated guards (Marbury, Crawford, etc) may melt down if required to feed the post nonstop. By season’s end, it could be ugly in the media and on the team.
14. Indiana Pacers 29-53 5th in Central
The Pacers have a slow roster with trouble shooting and a big man who doesn’t want to be there and thinks he’s better than he actually is. And though I like Jim O’Brien, he’s no Rick Carlisle as a coach. Pain awaits.
15. Philadelphia 76ers 23-59 5th in Atlantic
As it becomes clear that Andre Miller is their best player, but well past his prime, and Iguodala merely tantalizes, this becomes the go-nowhere team for the next 5 years.
Playoffs: Miami upsets Boston and Orlando knocks off Kobe’s Bulls in the first round, joining Detroit and Cleveland. Detroit and Miami make the Eastern finals, where in a shocker, DWade makes a case that he deserved KG’s MVP trophy and the Heat have one last hurrah in the Finals.
Western Conference (ranked by playoff seed):
TEAM PROJECTED RECORD PROJECTED DIV. FINISH
1. Dallas Mavericks 59-23 1st in Southwest
They’ll slip from 67 wins, but remain the best regular season team in the league. Dirk will lose MVP to KG, but will have another fabulous season.
2. Houston Rockets 58-24 2nd in Southwest
Adelman’s been a great regular season coach, and Scola is a nice pickup. PG could be an issue, but they have multiple options there. Assuming McGrady’s back specialist keeps doing his magic, they look like a terrific team.
3. Phoenix Suns 54-28 1st in Pacific
The league is beginning to adjust to their style, and with their penurious owner’s personnel expulsions, their depth is now tissue thin. If the Stoudamire-Marion envyfest isn’t resolved, it could be a tough season, and I think their title dreams left with Nash’s bloody nose and the suspensions in last year’s playoffs.
4. Utah Jazz 50-32 1st in Northwest
Kirilenko will either be happier or traded, and Ronnie Brewer’s emergence will stabilize their 2-guard situation. Even if Boozer misses 20 games, they look like the class of the Northwest. If he misses 60, though….
5. San Antonio Spurs 56-26 3rd in Southwest
I think this is the year that some of the triumvirate of Parker/ Ginobili/ Duncan miss some serious time, although I expect them back healthy for the playoffs – and the veteran Popovich will be fine with that.
6. Denver Nuggets 47-35 2nd in Northwest
Questions galore: will Camby, Nene and Kmart stay healthy? Will AI and Melo shoot them into or out of more games? And can they find a decent PG?
7. Golden State Warriors 45-37 2nd in Pacific
Nellie’s show has Biedrins improving and good possibilities on defense, as (with the exception of Monta Ellis) their rotation players can all switch the pick and roll without mismatch problems thanks to their big guards/ swingmen. As long as Baron Davis stays healthy (admittedly a large conditional), I think they’re playoff bound.
8. Los Angeles Lakers 41-41 3rd in Pacific
The Lakers have depth, and are soon to be even deeper with the multiple players coming to town for Kobe. Once those fellows arrive and Kobe leaves, the pall will lift and the Lakers will make a late playoff push to come from behind to grab the 8th seed, led by new stars Luol Deng and Joakim Noah.
----out of playoffs:
9. New Orleans Hornets 39-43 4th in Southwest
Chris Paul should be an offensive juggernaut, and Chandler a defensive force. Unfortunately, they don’t have enough else to put them into the playoffs, and will rue the contract they gave Peja every day until it ends.
10. Memphis Grizzlies 38-44 5th in Southwest
A healthy Spanish tandem, a terrific young PG combo in Lowry and Conley, and Miller’s marksmanship from 3 – what’s not to like? Defense. But they should play entertaining ball under Phoenix transplant Iavaroni, at least.
11. Seattle SuperSonics 33-49 3rd in Northwest
Their young bigs are theoretically healthy, and you would think losing Lewis and Allen as swingmen would improve their D, however much it hurts their offense. You’d be wrong, as Durant will be a sieve. But he’ll score and board a bit (18 and 7 look about right) and get the ROY in a developmental year of what figures to be a long career in the great wet Northwest – or so the good citizens of Seattle hope.
12. Portland Trail Blazers 28-54 4th in Northwest
No Oden, Roy is hurting, and… they have four or five PGs and little interior defense. In 5 years they should be really good, but this year will be tough.
13. Sacramento Kings 26-56 4th in Pacific
The Kings have some good players – Martin, Artest – and Miller has reported in his best shape in a while. That said, they still may play the worst D around – well, except for the two teams still below them. Which are:
14. Los Angeles Clippers 24-58 5th in Pacific
The Clips looked like an old and selfish team last year; a year later, they lost their best player by far and otherwise did nothing to improve, and even didn’t address the player-coach locker-room cancer, letting Maggette fester all offseason, As he enters free agency next summer, think he’ll worry about anything but gunning? Their only hope is Elton’s early return, but he likely will never be the same player as before the Achilles snapped.
15. Minnesota Timberwolves 20-62 5th in Northwest
The Wolves went 32-50 with Garnett, and should not be better without him. Well, actually, they might on offense – but their defense should be sufficiently horrid as to overwhelm any offensive improvement - especially as the refs don't let youngsters get away with much on defense. But now, they have hope for the future – it was the right move, even if it came a year or 2 too late.
Playoffs: Dallas, Houston, Phoenix and the Spurs win the first round as expected. Dallas takes out the Spurs in an epic 2nd round, and Houston whips the Suns. And home court proves huge as Dallas whips the Rockets in 7 in the conference finals, setting up:
Finals: The rematch, Mavericks against Heat! Mark Cuban promises to have a team of retired refs analyze every call DWade gets as the series begins. The Mavs run Shaq ragged and hack him relentlessly, and sweep the first two; Miami gets 2 /3 at home, and the Mavs finally win the title in game 6 back home. Dirk is Finals MVP and lets all who questioned him have it with both barrels in the postgame news conference.
Regular season: MVP – KG. ROY- Durant.
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