NBA predictions 2008-9

NBA predictions 2008-9 (well; 80-game predictions- no one’s played more than 2 so far…):
Eastern Conference (ranked by playoff seed):
TEAM PROJECTED RECORD PROJECTED DIV. FINISH

1. Boston Celtics 56-26 1st in Atlantic
The Big 3 may have a few more nicks and aches, but the rest of the team is for the most part young and improving, i.e., another year better; so even if KG and Ray-Ray continue their gentle decline, and Pierce regresses from his career year, they still appear the class of the East. The playoffs may be a different matter, but it’s hard to see anyone in the East passing them in the first 82.
2. Detroit Pistons 54-28 1st in Central
Sheed should be motivated as he plays for a new contract, and the slow decline of their non-Tayshaun starters is offset by a young and improving bench. The real question is whether they will sit tight at the trade deadline, or whether Joe Dumars will attempt to upgrade as he did when he first acquired Sheed. The next team’s fortunes may tell the tale:
3. Cleveland Cavaliers 50-32 2nd in Central
LeBron will start his serious MVP campaign by bringing 50 wins to the Cavs, and they may well use Wally World’s contract to upgrade at the trade deadline. Varejao is there for the whole season, the youngsters should be better, and Larry Hughes’s clanging jumper is finally gone… so my expectations are coming up, not down.
4. Atlanta Hawks 47-35 1st in Southeast
The shocker anew: most prognosticators have them out of the playoffs, but Mo Evans is a good replacement for Childress, and the rest of the team is young and getting better, not worse. And someone has to win the division, and here they are, led by likely all-stars Josh Smith and Joe Johnson, and blue-collar banger extraordinaire Al Horford. The status of Mike Bibby and his expiring deal as the trade deadline nears will also be interesting.
5. Toronto Raptors 48-34 2nd in Atlantic
They hope to have a healthy J. O’Neal, and Chris Bosh is now an elite player. They have a solid defensive team and a mediocre bench, hurt by the large white bustiness of Bargnani. Jose Calderon is the key – he must stay healthy, or they are in deep doodoo. But absent serious injury problems, I think they win at least 48, and possibly 50+.
6. Philadelphia 76ers 45-37 3rd in Atlantic
Unfortunately, players get worse, not better, after a major Achilles injury, so the 76ers won’t be getting the near-MVP Elton Brand of a few years back – 18 and 8 seems more likely than 24 and 10. And they lack any reasonable outside shooters, increasingly a liability in the ever more sophisticated defensive era played now. Still, their starters are good enough to get them over .500, although their bench could make it ugly if anyone important gets hurt.
7. Miami Heat 44-38 2nd in Southeast
Again, the Heat are an tough to predict this year, as the tank job of last season (how bad were they, really?) and the new coach multiply the uncertainties inherent in a team with a great player when healthy, a very good player when motivated/ not sulking, a fine role player who’s overmatched playing center, and a talented rookie (or two) with maturity problems. I’m assuming Wade stays healthy and has an MVP-candidate season; if not, I seriously doubt they make the playoffs.
8. Orlando Magic 43-39 3rd in Southeast
Turkoglu looks like the biggest lock in the league to regress this year – there’s no way he’s repeating last season’s great shooting. R. Lewis is also due to get hurt/ regress, and they still have a terrible problem at 2-guard and backup big. And I remain unimpressed by J. Nelson, and even less by his backups (with Carlos Arroyo departing). But D. Howard is a beast, and that’s why they get the last playoff spot.
----out of playoffs:
9. Indiana Pacers 39-43 3rd in Central
The Pacers have a slow roster with trouble shooting; TJ Ford will help for the 30 games he’s healthy, but…. Then what? A return to Tinsley? Dunleavy is another lock to regress, as he shot much better than he ever had before last year. And Danny Granger is the only player who’s both reasonably young and good and improving. I like Jim O’Brien, and Indy will be competitive most nights, but this looks like the upper range of their abilities.
10. New York Knicks 38-44 4th in Atlantic
Wow, what a huge coaching upgrade. The Knicks should be able to score even better, now that Marbury and Curry are nailed to the bench and Zach Randolph has a coach that will emphasize his strengths instead of his weaknesses. And David Lee is a great fit for D’Antoni’s system; but the guards are still subpar, and the defense even more so – and the latter isn’t D’Antoni’s forte. So more excitement and wins, but no real contention for a playoff spot – yet.
11. Chicago Bulls 37-45 4th in Central
Del Negro has a lot to learn as a coach, much like his young team. I expect Hinrich or Gordon to be traded (maybe both) by the deadline, as the Bulls continue to attempt to build for the future instead of contending now.
12. Charlotte Bobcats 36-46 4th in Southeast
Sean May is perpetually either hurt or out of shape, and Okafor has turned into a slightly better Erick Dampier. They don’t know who their PG is, and Adam Morrison looks like an all-time draft bust. Worst, GWallace is going to get concussed again at some point, dooming their playoff push and possibly his career. But at least MJ and Larry Brown can share Carolina stories while they golf.
13. New Jersey Nets 34-48 5th in Atlantic
Yi (the bust) will play rotation minutes and kill them; Vinsanity will mail it in if he’s still there after the trade deadline, and the rest of the team hopes to be better by 2010 and the hoped-for LeBron and Brooklyn sightings. I’d pick them lower, but the coach works hard and the last two teams will play horrid defense.
14. Milwaukee Bucks 30-52 5th in Central
Bad PGs – Charlie Bell starts, or finishes?! - and no one defends, no matter how much Skiles screams at them. And the screaming makes this the most likely team to quit on its coach – well, except maybe Charlotte if LB channels his Knicks experience. Bogut is decent, and Redd will likely be traded. That’s the best you can say. Pain awaits.
15. Washington Wizards 27-55 5th in Southeast
Selfish gunners with no D, but older and slower and recovering from surgery. Yuck. That’s what I wrote last year. I was a year early.


Playoffs: Boston, Detroit, Cleveland and Toronto win the first round. Boston and Cleveland win the second round, and in a seven game masterpiece, King LeBron beats the defending champs in the East finals.

Western Conference (ranked by playoff seed):
TEAM PROJECTED RECORD PROJECTED DIV. FINISH
1. Los Angeles Lakers 61-21 1st in Pacific
The Lakers have depth galore, and are soon to be even deeper with the players soon coming to town in trade for Lamar Odom – perhaps Shawn Marion, or Andrei Kirilenko. Kobe’s willingness to defer and defend, instead of being a ballhog, will determine whether this team actually wins the title. Their defense already looks fearsome, although Bynum’s health remains a key.
2. Houston Rockets 58-24 1st in Southwest
Adelman’s been a great regular season coach, and Artest (playing for a contract) is a great pickup. PG could be an issue, but they have multiple options there – Aaron Brooks looks like the pure PG they need to complement Alston. Assuming McGrady’s back specialist and Yao’s foot doc keep things healthy, they look like a terrific team.
3. New Orleans Hornets 55-27 2nd in Southwest
Chris Paul is an offensive juggernaut and possible MVP, David West an underappreciated stud, and Chandler a defensive force. And they added an excellent role player in James Posey. But while Peja was shockingly healthy last year, I don’t expect that to continue, and Chandler is a good bet to join him in civvies far more often than last year. Still, this looks like an excellent team, and with perfect health could threaten the Lakers for best record.
4. Utah Jazz 50-32 1st in Northwest
Kirilenko may be traded, and Harpring is falling off a cliff. But Ronnie Brewer is turning into a stud, Korver gives them much needed shooting, and Boozer and Okur are probably the best offensive 4-5 combo in the league (although their defense is a different matter). And Deron Williams looks like he could become a superstar. Injuries and uncertainty over Boozer’s contract status look like the primary threats, but no other team in their division is – at least until the Blazers get a little older.
5. Phoenix Suns 50-32 2nd in Pacific
The defense does look better, and Shaq looks healthy and motivated, although his explosiveness is never coming back. Their 8-man rotation is bolstered by Matt Barnes, a perfect fit as a role player. But they’re trying an overmatched rookie as Nash’s backup, and an injury to Steve could quickly put them in free fall. But assuming health, Amare Stoudamire should be a boxscore stuffer and they should remain a playoff team with legitimate aspirations of getting out of the first round – although a title now looks remote.
6. Dallas Mavericks 49-33 3rd in Southwest
Dirk remains a stud, and JKidd has enough left to keep them well assisted; Josh Howard has every incentive to play well enough to reclaim his reputation. And Rick Carlisle is an excellent coach, especially before he wears out his welcome. They look like a sure playoff participant to me, but unlikely to advance to the second round.
7. San Antonio Spurs 46-36 4th in Southwest
When will Ginobili return? And how close to 100% will he be? The answer will determine their playoff chances, as TP and Duncan remain studs, but the rest of the team would threaten the OKC Thunder as the worst in the league – they got old fast. Trading Scola to the Rockets now looks like one of the worst moves of the last few years.
8. Portland Trail Blazers 44-38 2nd in Northwest
Oden = Robert Parish, or Mutombo, or Okafor, or Dampier? They hope the right comparison isn’t Sam Bowie, but the injuries keep coming. The rest of the team is very promising but very young, and it’s not clear how many (if any) of their guys will turn into stars instead of solid role players; the best bet, Brandon Roy, may have a short shelf life – worries about his longevity are why he dropped as far in the draft as he did. I still see enough to hold off GST and Denver for the last playoff spot.

----out of playoffs:
9. Golden State Warriors 43-39 3rd in Pacific
They will just miss again, methinks; the Monta Ellis injury and Baron Davis loss offset Biedrins and B. Wright improving and a good wing rotation. Nellie could also effectively jump ship at any time, as he did in Dallas.
10. Denver Nuggets 40-42 3rd in Northwest
Their defense was underrated last year, but the linchpin just left town for the Clips with nothing in return, and AI (always overrated) is getting worse, not better. Can Nene and K-Mart stay healthy? Will Melo play D and exercise better shot selection and begin to have his value actually approach his rep? And PG remains a horror – A. Carter won’t shoot well two years in a row. When will G. Karl lose it?
11. Los Angeles Clippers 32-50 4th in Pacific
The Clips looked like an old and selfish team last year, and to boot had a player-coach locker-room cancer between Dunleavy and Maggette, to say nothing of Dunleavy-Elgin Baylor and Dunleavy-Donald Sterling. A year later, Sterling has given Dunleavy enough rope to hang himself with, in making him GM and coach. Camby is already hurt and furious at being dealt to the Clips, and Baron Davis is a high probability mailer-inner once the playoffs are seen to be a hopeless dream. They remain ancient and/or poor defenders on the wings, and they lost their best player and team leader in a botched free agency. The franchise appears cursed to perpetual mediocrity or worse.
12. Memphis Grizzlies 31-51 5th in Southwest
Gasol the Younger can bang, Rudy Gay can score and sky, and OJ Mayo is hyped. The young PG combo in Lowry and Conley has some promise, even if they are wee little men. They still lack defense and play in a brutal division, but they should show some progress at least.
13. Sacramento Kings 28-54 5th in Pacific
The Kings have some good offensive players – Martin, Brad Miller – and Reggie Theus seems a better coach than initially suspected. But the overall talent level is too low to expect contention anytime soon; they should be building for the future and perhaps should deal Miller to open up PT for Spencer Hawes et al.
14. Minnesota Timberwolves 26-56 4th in Northwest
The Wolves went 32-50 two years ago with Garnett, and correctly blew things up. They have an offensively gifted but defensively lacking frontcourt duo of Kevin Love and Al Jefferson, and a good-shooting swingman in Mike Miller, but still need legit players at both guard spots and defensive help – perhaps Corey Brewer can become a stopper. (Drafting Randy Foye was a big mistake; playing him at PG is a bigger one.) At least they have hope for the future – but they will continue to suck for the near future. But not as much as:
15. OKC Thunder 19-63 5th in Northwest
Their young bigs are busts – Nick Collison is the best, and he wouldn’t start anywhere else. Jeff Green is a tweener F out of place trying to guard 3s, and Durant a no-defense sieve watching 2s dash by him on the perimeter. Durant will score – 20 ppg is likely the minimum, and 25 isn’t completely out of the question – but a 45% FG pct likely is. He will attempt to enter the Carmelo Anthony overrated youngster pantheon soon. They may struggle to win a road game all year, but their sellout home crowds mean they will get enough of a goose there (especially against road-weary teams in mid-winter) that they will easily pass the 9-73 all-time loser mark.

Playoffs: Lakers, Rockets, Hornets and Suns win the first round. In a shocker, Shaq and the Suns depose the Lakers in round two, as Kobe launches 45 shots in the deciding game (and makes 10) and Shaq asks him again what his tastes like. The Rockets defeat a Hornets squad missing either Chandler or Peja, and the Rockets then beat the exhausted old Suns in the West finals.

Finals: The hype will say Yao vs LeBron – although it will be Artest guarding the King and shutting him down, as the Rockets win a title.

Regular season: MVP – Chris Paul. ROY- M. Beasley.