I actually forecast the upsets of Houston and Dallas in the first round, but didn't register those picks here, so let's put it on the record. First, a final first-rounder: I forecast Atlanta to win, and with game 7 coming up, I'll stick with that if Horford plays. If Big Al can't go, I think Miami will squeeze out a win. It won't matter for the second round, as the Cleveland LeBrons resemble a juggernaut, though they will get more resistance this round than the basketball version of the disaster in Detroit put up in round 1. The Pistons and Hornets both were embarrassing, although at least no Hornets quit before the playoffs even began (thanks for helping your rep, AI). Cleveland over Atl (or Miami) in 5.
The Orlando Magic will miss Courtney Lee, but unless KG magically gets new knees, it won't matter; Orlando over Boston in 5. Out West, things remain more interesting. Denver got a lay-down from the Hornets and still lost a game, and I have a feeling J Kidd has one last playoff run left; Dallas in 6. And now the real shocker: I really like this Houston team, and despite the Lakers winning all 4 in the regular season, they were hardly blowouts. I see an epic battle, and with Bynum limping, Yao will be tough to stop for the Lakers. I see a 7th game and another 5-24 performance by Kobe as he sulks into the offseason yet again - Rockets in 7!
Sunday, May 3, 2009
Saturday, May 2, 2009
Trade Chris Paul? Yes.
The New Orleans Hornets are in a world of hurt; they tried to trade Tyson Chandler for financial reasons at midseason, but the trade was nullified because of a bad toe. And so they still have Chandler's massive contract while their best player, Chris Paul, will get a massive raise beginning next season. With their ugly playoff exit, it appears clear that the Hornets need to revamp their roster and cut costs, and CP3 is their only major asset.
Hence, I believe they should deal Paul and Chandler to Portland for several young (cheap) players, including Greg Oden, and start over. Portland would do the trade because they would immediately become a serious title contender, starting Chandler, Aldridge, Batum/ Wright, Roy, and CP3.
Here's a link to the full trade:
http://games.espn.go.com/nba/tradeMachine?tradeId=cmayoz
Hence, I believe they should deal Paul and Chandler to Portland for several young (cheap) players, including Greg Oden, and start over. Portland would do the trade because they would immediately become a serious title contender, starting Chandler, Aldridge, Batum/ Wright, Roy, and CP3.
Here's a link to the full trade:
http://games.espn.go.com/nba/tradeMachine?tradeId=cmayoz
Wednesday, March 18, 2009
How to solve our employment crisis and end the 'working poor'
The Congress is about to consider the 'card check' bill that would allow unions to bypass a secret ballot and force open ballots on whether a workplace would unionize; the universal belief is that this would result in the unionization of more workplaces, and undermine the 'right to work' states that guarantee industries are not forced to hire union workers.
Democratic politicians are largely supportive of this legislation, and not just because unions are large campaign contributors. In addition, the moral argument is made that a lack of unionization in many industries (along with a relatively low minimum wage, compared to the cost of living) leads to the phenomenon of the 'working poor' - those who work full-time yet still cannot make ends meet, and struggle to afford necessities like food, shelter, health care and education for their children. The economic recession/ depression simply exacerbates the problem; the involuntary unemployment rate continues to rise, and as a result wages, particularly low-end wages, continue to fall, as do other benefits (such as health insurance) that employers use as remuneration. As a result, various kind of employment protections are also being discussed or are already in force, including a different sense of the 'right to work' - the right to keep your job once one is hired - i.e., the right not to be fired. The argument is that, especially in economically perilous times, one's job is a benefit that needs state protection against arbitrary and unjust removal; and so gaining in popularity are 'due process' laws that demand 'just cause' be shown before one can be fired, and the burden of proof is on the employer to be able to document in court why one was let go.
But economists often note that both unions and the 'right to work' as the right not to be fired entrench economic inefficiency, as less efficient workers are protected in their jobs and businesses cannot easily replace them with more capable employees. Hence, the question continues to be debated over whether the social benefits of the protections of unions and due process protections against termination are worth their costs to the overall economy.
This dilemma can be solved. But it would require a massive legal and social change, that in our current climate may be more attainable than ever before, but would still require great political skill and courageous leadership. As a bonus, my solution would also help solve other seemingly intractable social problems, such as the immigration of illegal workers from Latin America and the broken state of our health care funding. I believe a nation that adopts my solution would be more economically competitive, with less to fear from globalization, and with far greater social justice and better incentives to productive work, versus perverse incentives to collect funds for doing little to nothing at all. So here I propose my solution; it will be presented in various stages, but most of them are interdependent, not independent - if most or all of them are not adopted, it would undermine the value of the others.
First, we scrap the payroll tax and social security tax and capital gains tax and all the others, and have a single flat tax on all income (from whatever source). It would be automatically withheld from paychecks, or by trading banks on capital gains, or so forth. Direct deposit and other electronic forms of fund transfers would make this simple; the IRS would then focus its attention on large cash transfers, with a happy side benefit of making drug dealing, prostitution, and other illegal cash-driven transactions more difficult. The exact rate is negotiable, but 26% as a guesstimate seems reasonable; depending on the next two suggestions, it could be even lower, perhaps substantially lower.
Second, we make the estate ('death') tax 100%. Taxes should ideally be voluntary, or on activities we wish to discourage; or at the least, on those who will not object to the tax. The dead certainly qualify on the last point. The heirs of the rich certainly will object (and family businesses/ farmers), but I would have the government offer the designated heirs the first opportunity to repurchase the estate (at fair market value), using the life insurance that would no doubt be purchased for this reason, if the heirs actually care. (The life insurance industry would no doubt boom given my proposal; politically, that will help make up for the health insurance bust to come with my later proposals). Economists note that inheritances usually portend an extremely inefficient use of resources, being unrelated to productive labor; and the moral argument against them is even stronger - why should I, who had no choice as to my parents (and obviously could do nothing to deserve them), be unjustly benefitted from having wealthy ones (or unjustly burdened by poor ones)? The 'genetic lottery' is already a major source of unmerited inequality within a generation; to allow it to distort successive generations, indefinitely, violates the tenets of morality, whether they be consequentialist, deontological, or virtue.
Third, we would nationalize all lottery and other gambling companies of over a certain value, and have a national lottery/ casino industry. The main business of Las Vegas would not cease to exist (or even dramatically change); it would simply become a government industry town, like, say, Minot, N. Dakota. The long and sordid history of the connection between gambling and organized crime (and the ever-present risk of fraud) in any case cries out for greater regulation of this industry; better yet to allow the government to run it, and keep the proceeds for itself. (Sorry, Indian tribes! Reparations may be a legitimate issue; but gambling is a lousy substitute, just as affirmative action is a lousy substitute for the descendants of slaves). State-sponsored gambling/ lotteries are sometimes termed a 'tax on stupidity' by economists, but they have the considerable virtue of being entirely voluntary.
(I also support the legalization and nationalization of prostitution and most drug dealing, within 'red light districts' that are heavily regulated (not least for safety) and taxed, but that is a largely independent issue from my other proposals).
Fourth, we guarantee to US citizens a third sense of the 'right to work' - the right to a job for which one is qualified (or perhaps overqualified). That is, we put an end to involuntary unemployment. In practice, this means the state becomes the 'employer of last resort' - if one cannot find a job in the private sector, the government will gainfully employ you, whether it be as a card dealer or teacher or social worker or street paver or ditch digger or garbage collector. Or even as a bureaucrat! This is sometimes termed 'workfare' as opposed to welfare; welfare benefits would end (except for the disabled). But if one wishes to have an income, the state guarantees that one can find work. This may be thought of as FDR's WPA writ large, except that I think that government should also be more involved in higher-value industries than the ditch digging of the Great Depression. Which leads me to:
Fifth, the government should change the nature of bankruptcy and antitrust legislation and set up firms that compete with private businesses. China is not a role model in many ways, but their form of capitalism has some lessons for us. In particular, the free market idealizations of economists depend on many factors often missing from reality, and perfect competition is perhaps foremost among them. In the real world, private businesses relentlessly attempt to reduce the amount of competition they engage in; monopolies, price-fixing and collusion are merely among the most obvious of those attempts. China's attempt to control its economy ironically has hit on a way of increasing competition, by making private and state-owned firms in the same industry compete against each other, and often blurring the distinction between private and state ownersip itself. Interestingly, the US does this as well, but only in a few industries: the US is widely seen as having the best higher education system in the world, and vigorous competition between private and public universities is taken for granted. Elementary and secondary schools in the US have far less direct competition (as charter school and voucher proponents are all too aware) and accordingly are less efficient and productive. The current crisis in the financial sector and the confusion over the 'nationalization' of banks and other financial firms makes this all the more clear. I propose that when a private firm declares bankruptcy, this immediately means its stockholders have lost their equity, but the firm itself at least temporarily continues, now as a government-run and administered business, with employees earning government salaries. If other bureaucrats decide to disband the business entirely, that becomes a government decision; also possible is the recovery of the business while state-owned and its eventual re-privitization. In addition, when the government determines that antitrust issues have come into play and a business threatens a monopoly or other unjust restraint on competition, the usual response will not be to allow lawyers and judges to partition the company; instead, the government will form at least one new company with adequate capitalization to compete with the monopolist. Thus, the government can enforce competition by creating it directly when needed. Medical care is one obvious area in which having a state-guaranteed health care system (beyond ERs!) compete with private health-care providers is likely to be a boon to us all.
Sixth, we eliminate the idea of 'just cause' firing and the right to keep one's job; businesses will be free to hire and fire as they wish; but they will have to document the reason for firing employees, and that documentation will be a matter of public record. Employees will not be allowed to sue for unjust cause for termination, but they can sue for defamation or slander/ libel if the employer lies about the reason they were terminated. This reliability of this information will be crucial in helping other private or public employers decide on their next job, inasmuch as they have a right to some job (point four, above). In addition, I would support the dramatic lowering of the minimum wage (to, say, a dollar an hour). While not strictly necessary, this will turn out to enhance the efficiency of business hiring and firing without causing undue harm to employees. And that will help be assured by my final proposal:
Seventh, health insurance is guaranteed by the state (and no longer dependent upon one's employer, unless voluntarily chosen), as is a minimal income for all workers. How? By combining the flat tax above with a guaranteed refund for all US citizens. To assure the correct incentives, one's refund would depend upon one's job classification: for full-time entry level jobs, one would be guaranteed a refund of $26,000 a year. For full-time jobs requiring a college education, the refund would increase to, say, $36,000. And for jobs requiring advanced degrees - scientists, lawyers, doctors, professors - the refund would be $46,000. (Part-time work would garner refunds directly proportional to the percentage of full-time worked - so a half-time nanny would get a $13,000 refund, a half-time professor a $23,000 refund). That refund, of course, assumes one paid the 26% withholding on all income; if some income did not have the 26% withholding taken out, then one's refund would decrease. Again, the exact numbers are negotiable, but the principle remains: even if one works as a ditch digger for $1 an hour, full time - 40 hours a week, 50 weeks a year (2 weeks vacation) - then one will make a gross salary of $2000, withholding taxes of $520, so a net salary of $1480, but a yearly income of $27,480. No longer would any citizen work full time and remain desperately poor. But the incentives to move on to higher-value jobs (which are also better for the society as a whole) is built into the tax system. And immigrants would have every reason to attempt a path to citizenship: those legally employed here would still pay the flat tax but would not receive the refund. If combined with a decrease in the legal minimum wage, the incentives of Latin Americans and others to illegally immigrate would also dissipate, as American workers would know that any job guarantees them at least a living wage with the refund.
As a professor of business ethics, I believe the above proposals (and more that I have - but this post is already long enough) would offer solutions for many of the most pressing problems of our current economic system. Now, if only someone would put them into action....
Democratic politicians are largely supportive of this legislation, and not just because unions are large campaign contributors. In addition, the moral argument is made that a lack of unionization in many industries (along with a relatively low minimum wage, compared to the cost of living) leads to the phenomenon of the 'working poor' - those who work full-time yet still cannot make ends meet, and struggle to afford necessities like food, shelter, health care and education for their children. The economic recession/ depression simply exacerbates the problem; the involuntary unemployment rate continues to rise, and as a result wages, particularly low-end wages, continue to fall, as do other benefits (such as health insurance) that employers use as remuneration. As a result, various kind of employment protections are also being discussed or are already in force, including a different sense of the 'right to work' - the right to keep your job once one is hired - i.e., the right not to be fired. The argument is that, especially in economically perilous times, one's job is a benefit that needs state protection against arbitrary and unjust removal; and so gaining in popularity are 'due process' laws that demand 'just cause' be shown before one can be fired, and the burden of proof is on the employer to be able to document in court why one was let go.
But economists often note that both unions and the 'right to work' as the right not to be fired entrench economic inefficiency, as less efficient workers are protected in their jobs and businesses cannot easily replace them with more capable employees. Hence, the question continues to be debated over whether the social benefits of the protections of unions and due process protections against termination are worth their costs to the overall economy.
This dilemma can be solved. But it would require a massive legal and social change, that in our current climate may be more attainable than ever before, but would still require great political skill and courageous leadership. As a bonus, my solution would also help solve other seemingly intractable social problems, such as the immigration of illegal workers from Latin America and the broken state of our health care funding. I believe a nation that adopts my solution would be more economically competitive, with less to fear from globalization, and with far greater social justice and better incentives to productive work, versus perverse incentives to collect funds for doing little to nothing at all. So here I propose my solution; it will be presented in various stages, but most of them are interdependent, not independent - if most or all of them are not adopted, it would undermine the value of the others.
First, we scrap the payroll tax and social security tax and capital gains tax and all the others, and have a single flat tax on all income (from whatever source). It would be automatically withheld from paychecks, or by trading banks on capital gains, or so forth. Direct deposit and other electronic forms of fund transfers would make this simple; the IRS would then focus its attention on large cash transfers, with a happy side benefit of making drug dealing, prostitution, and other illegal cash-driven transactions more difficult. The exact rate is negotiable, but 26% as a guesstimate seems reasonable; depending on the next two suggestions, it could be even lower, perhaps substantially lower.
Second, we make the estate ('death') tax 100%. Taxes should ideally be voluntary, or on activities we wish to discourage; or at the least, on those who will not object to the tax. The dead certainly qualify on the last point. The heirs of the rich certainly will object (and family businesses/ farmers), but I would have the government offer the designated heirs the first opportunity to repurchase the estate (at fair market value), using the life insurance that would no doubt be purchased for this reason, if the heirs actually care. (The life insurance industry would no doubt boom given my proposal; politically, that will help make up for the health insurance bust to come with my later proposals). Economists note that inheritances usually portend an extremely inefficient use of resources, being unrelated to productive labor; and the moral argument against them is even stronger - why should I, who had no choice as to my parents (and obviously could do nothing to deserve them), be unjustly benefitted from having wealthy ones (or unjustly burdened by poor ones)? The 'genetic lottery' is already a major source of unmerited inequality within a generation; to allow it to distort successive generations, indefinitely, violates the tenets of morality, whether they be consequentialist, deontological, or virtue.
Third, we would nationalize all lottery and other gambling companies of over a certain value, and have a national lottery/ casino industry. The main business of Las Vegas would not cease to exist (or even dramatically change); it would simply become a government industry town, like, say, Minot, N. Dakota. The long and sordid history of the connection between gambling and organized crime (and the ever-present risk of fraud) in any case cries out for greater regulation of this industry; better yet to allow the government to run it, and keep the proceeds for itself. (Sorry, Indian tribes! Reparations may be a legitimate issue; but gambling is a lousy substitute, just as affirmative action is a lousy substitute for the descendants of slaves). State-sponsored gambling/ lotteries are sometimes termed a 'tax on stupidity' by economists, but they have the considerable virtue of being entirely voluntary.
(I also support the legalization and nationalization of prostitution and most drug dealing, within 'red light districts' that are heavily regulated (not least for safety) and taxed, but that is a largely independent issue from my other proposals).
Fourth, we guarantee to US citizens a third sense of the 'right to work' - the right to a job for which one is qualified (or perhaps overqualified). That is, we put an end to involuntary unemployment. In practice, this means the state becomes the 'employer of last resort' - if one cannot find a job in the private sector, the government will gainfully employ you, whether it be as a card dealer or teacher or social worker or street paver or ditch digger or garbage collector. Or even as a bureaucrat! This is sometimes termed 'workfare' as opposed to welfare; welfare benefits would end (except for the disabled). But if one wishes to have an income, the state guarantees that one can find work. This may be thought of as FDR's WPA writ large, except that I think that government should also be more involved in higher-value industries than the ditch digging of the Great Depression. Which leads me to:
Fifth, the government should change the nature of bankruptcy and antitrust legislation and set up firms that compete with private businesses. China is not a role model in many ways, but their form of capitalism has some lessons for us. In particular, the free market idealizations of economists depend on many factors often missing from reality, and perfect competition is perhaps foremost among them. In the real world, private businesses relentlessly attempt to reduce the amount of competition they engage in; monopolies, price-fixing and collusion are merely among the most obvious of those attempts. China's attempt to control its economy ironically has hit on a way of increasing competition, by making private and state-owned firms in the same industry compete against each other, and often blurring the distinction between private and state ownersip itself. Interestingly, the US does this as well, but only in a few industries: the US is widely seen as having the best higher education system in the world, and vigorous competition between private and public universities is taken for granted. Elementary and secondary schools in the US have far less direct competition (as charter school and voucher proponents are all too aware) and accordingly are less efficient and productive. The current crisis in the financial sector and the confusion over the 'nationalization' of banks and other financial firms makes this all the more clear. I propose that when a private firm declares bankruptcy, this immediately means its stockholders have lost their equity, but the firm itself at least temporarily continues, now as a government-run and administered business, with employees earning government salaries. If other bureaucrats decide to disband the business entirely, that becomes a government decision; also possible is the recovery of the business while state-owned and its eventual re-privitization. In addition, when the government determines that antitrust issues have come into play and a business threatens a monopoly or other unjust restraint on competition, the usual response will not be to allow lawyers and judges to partition the company; instead, the government will form at least one new company with adequate capitalization to compete with the monopolist. Thus, the government can enforce competition by creating it directly when needed. Medical care is one obvious area in which having a state-guaranteed health care system (beyond ERs!) compete with private health-care providers is likely to be a boon to us all.
Sixth, we eliminate the idea of 'just cause' firing and the right to keep one's job; businesses will be free to hire and fire as they wish; but they will have to document the reason for firing employees, and that documentation will be a matter of public record. Employees will not be allowed to sue for unjust cause for termination, but they can sue for defamation or slander/ libel if the employer lies about the reason they were terminated. This reliability of this information will be crucial in helping other private or public employers decide on their next job, inasmuch as they have a right to some job (point four, above). In addition, I would support the dramatic lowering of the minimum wage (to, say, a dollar an hour). While not strictly necessary, this will turn out to enhance the efficiency of business hiring and firing without causing undue harm to employees. And that will help be assured by my final proposal:
Seventh, health insurance is guaranteed by the state (and no longer dependent upon one's employer, unless voluntarily chosen), as is a minimal income for all workers. How? By combining the flat tax above with a guaranteed refund for all US citizens. To assure the correct incentives, one's refund would depend upon one's job classification: for full-time entry level jobs, one would be guaranteed a refund of $26,000 a year. For full-time jobs requiring a college education, the refund would increase to, say, $36,000. And for jobs requiring advanced degrees - scientists, lawyers, doctors, professors - the refund would be $46,000. (Part-time work would garner refunds directly proportional to the percentage of full-time worked - so a half-time nanny would get a $13,000 refund, a half-time professor a $23,000 refund). That refund, of course, assumes one paid the 26% withholding on all income; if some income did not have the 26% withholding taken out, then one's refund would decrease. Again, the exact numbers are negotiable, but the principle remains: even if one works as a ditch digger for $1 an hour, full time - 40 hours a week, 50 weeks a year (2 weeks vacation) - then one will make a gross salary of $2000, withholding taxes of $520, so a net salary of $1480, but a yearly income of $27,480. No longer would any citizen work full time and remain desperately poor. But the incentives to move on to higher-value jobs (which are also better for the society as a whole) is built into the tax system. And immigrants would have every reason to attempt a path to citizenship: those legally employed here would still pay the flat tax but would not receive the refund. If combined with a decrease in the legal minimum wage, the incentives of Latin Americans and others to illegally immigrate would also dissipate, as American workers would know that any job guarantees them at least a living wage with the refund.
As a professor of business ethics, I believe the above proposals (and more that I have - but this post is already long enough) would offer solutions for many of the most pressing problems of our current economic system. Now, if only someone would put them into action....
Saturday, November 1, 2008
NBA predictions 2008-9
NBA predictions 2008-9 (well; 80-game predictions- no one’s played more than 2 so far…):
Eastern Conference (ranked by playoff seed):
TEAM PROJECTED RECORD PROJECTED DIV. FINISH
1. Boston Celtics 56-26 1st in Atlantic
The Big 3 may have a few more nicks and aches, but the rest of the team is for the most part young and improving, i.e., another year better; so even if KG and Ray-Ray continue their gentle decline, and Pierce regresses from his career year, they still appear the class of the East. The playoffs may be a different matter, but it’s hard to see anyone in the East passing them in the first 82.
2. Detroit Pistons 54-28 1st in Central
Sheed should be motivated as he plays for a new contract, and the slow decline of their non-Tayshaun starters is offset by a young and improving bench. The real question is whether they will sit tight at the trade deadline, or whether Joe Dumars will attempt to upgrade as he did when he first acquired Sheed. The next team’s fortunes may tell the tale:
3. Cleveland Cavaliers 50-32 2nd in Central
LeBron will start his serious MVP campaign by bringing 50 wins to the Cavs, and they may well use Wally World’s contract to upgrade at the trade deadline. Varejao is there for the whole season, the youngsters should be better, and Larry Hughes’s clanging jumper is finally gone… so my expectations are coming up, not down.
4. Atlanta Hawks 47-35 1st in Southeast
The shocker anew: most prognosticators have them out of the playoffs, but Mo Evans is a good replacement for Childress, and the rest of the team is young and getting better, not worse. And someone has to win the division, and here they are, led by likely all-stars Josh Smith and Joe Johnson, and blue-collar banger extraordinaire Al Horford. The status of Mike Bibby and his expiring deal as the trade deadline nears will also be interesting.
5. Toronto Raptors 48-34 2nd in Atlantic
They hope to have a healthy J. O’Neal, and Chris Bosh is now an elite player. They have a solid defensive team and a mediocre bench, hurt by the large white bustiness of Bargnani. Jose Calderon is the key – he must stay healthy, or they are in deep doodoo. But absent serious injury problems, I think they win at least 48, and possibly 50+.
6. Philadelphia 76ers 45-37 3rd in Atlantic
Unfortunately, players get worse, not better, after a major Achilles injury, so the 76ers won’t be getting the near-MVP Elton Brand of a few years back – 18 and 8 seems more likely than 24 and 10. And they lack any reasonable outside shooters, increasingly a liability in the ever more sophisticated defensive era played now. Still, their starters are good enough to get them over .500, although their bench could make it ugly if anyone important gets hurt.
7. Miami Heat 44-38 2nd in Southeast
Again, the Heat are an tough to predict this year, as the tank job of last season (how bad were they, really?) and the new coach multiply the uncertainties inherent in a team with a great player when healthy, a very good player when motivated/ not sulking, a fine role player who’s overmatched playing center, and a talented rookie (or two) with maturity problems. I’m assuming Wade stays healthy and has an MVP-candidate season; if not, I seriously doubt they make the playoffs.
8. Orlando Magic 43-39 3rd in Southeast
Turkoglu looks like the biggest lock in the league to regress this year – there’s no way he’s repeating last season’s great shooting. R. Lewis is also due to get hurt/ regress, and they still have a terrible problem at 2-guard and backup big. And I remain unimpressed by J. Nelson, and even less by his backups (with Carlos Arroyo departing). But D. Howard is a beast, and that’s why they get the last playoff spot.
----out of playoffs:
9. Indiana Pacers 39-43 3rd in Central
The Pacers have a slow roster with trouble shooting; TJ Ford will help for the 30 games he’s healthy, but…. Then what? A return to Tinsley? Dunleavy is another lock to regress, as he shot much better than he ever had before last year. And Danny Granger is the only player who’s both reasonably young and good and improving. I like Jim O’Brien, and Indy will be competitive most nights, but this looks like the upper range of their abilities.
10. New York Knicks 38-44 4th in Atlantic
Wow, what a huge coaching upgrade. The Knicks should be able to score even better, now that Marbury and Curry are nailed to the bench and Zach Randolph has a coach that will emphasize his strengths instead of his weaknesses. And David Lee is a great fit for D’Antoni’s system; but the guards are still subpar, and the defense even more so – and the latter isn’t D’Antoni’s forte. So more excitement and wins, but no real contention for a playoff spot – yet.
11. Chicago Bulls 37-45 4th in Central
Del Negro has a lot to learn as a coach, much like his young team. I expect Hinrich or Gordon to be traded (maybe both) by the deadline, as the Bulls continue to attempt to build for the future instead of contending now.
12. Charlotte Bobcats 36-46 4th in Southeast
Sean May is perpetually either hurt or out of shape, and Okafor has turned into a slightly better Erick Dampier. They don’t know who their PG is, and Adam Morrison looks like an all-time draft bust. Worst, GWallace is going to get concussed again at some point, dooming their playoff push and possibly his career. But at least MJ and Larry Brown can share Carolina stories while they golf.
13. New Jersey Nets 34-48 5th in Atlantic
Yi (the bust) will play rotation minutes and kill them; Vinsanity will mail it in if he’s still there after the trade deadline, and the rest of the team hopes to be better by 2010 and the hoped-for LeBron and Brooklyn sightings. I’d pick them lower, but the coach works hard and the last two teams will play horrid defense.
14. Milwaukee Bucks 30-52 5th in Central
Bad PGs – Charlie Bell starts, or finishes?! - and no one defends, no matter how much Skiles screams at them. And the screaming makes this the most likely team to quit on its coach – well, except maybe Charlotte if LB channels his Knicks experience. Bogut is decent, and Redd will likely be traded. That’s the best you can say. Pain awaits.
15. Washington Wizards 27-55 5th in Southeast
Selfish gunners with no D, but older and slower and recovering from surgery. Yuck. That’s what I wrote last year. I was a year early.
Playoffs: Boston, Detroit, Cleveland and Toronto win the first round. Boston and Cleveland win the second round, and in a seven game masterpiece, King LeBron beats the defending champs in the East finals.
Western Conference (ranked by playoff seed):
TEAM PROJECTED RECORD PROJECTED DIV. FINISH
1. Los Angeles Lakers 61-21 1st in Pacific
The Lakers have depth galore, and are soon to be even deeper with the players soon coming to town in trade for Lamar Odom – perhaps Shawn Marion, or Andrei Kirilenko. Kobe’s willingness to defer and defend, instead of being a ballhog, will determine whether this team actually wins the title. Their defense already looks fearsome, although Bynum’s health remains a key.
2. Houston Rockets 58-24 1st in Southwest
Adelman’s been a great regular season coach, and Artest (playing for a contract) is a great pickup. PG could be an issue, but they have multiple options there – Aaron Brooks looks like the pure PG they need to complement Alston. Assuming McGrady’s back specialist and Yao’s foot doc keep things healthy, they look like a terrific team.
3. New Orleans Hornets 55-27 2nd in Southwest
Chris Paul is an offensive juggernaut and possible MVP, David West an underappreciated stud, and Chandler a defensive force. And they added an excellent role player in James Posey. But while Peja was shockingly healthy last year, I don’t expect that to continue, and Chandler is a good bet to join him in civvies far more often than last year. Still, this looks like an excellent team, and with perfect health could threaten the Lakers for best record.
4. Utah Jazz 50-32 1st in Northwest
Kirilenko may be traded, and Harpring is falling off a cliff. But Ronnie Brewer is turning into a stud, Korver gives them much needed shooting, and Boozer and Okur are probably the best offensive 4-5 combo in the league (although their defense is a different matter). And Deron Williams looks like he could become a superstar. Injuries and uncertainty over Boozer’s contract status look like the primary threats, but no other team in their division is – at least until the Blazers get a little older.
5. Phoenix Suns 50-32 2nd in Pacific
The defense does look better, and Shaq looks healthy and motivated, although his explosiveness is never coming back. Their 8-man rotation is bolstered by Matt Barnes, a perfect fit as a role player. But they’re trying an overmatched rookie as Nash’s backup, and an injury to Steve could quickly put them in free fall. But assuming health, Amare Stoudamire should be a boxscore stuffer and they should remain a playoff team with legitimate aspirations of getting out of the first round – although a title now looks remote.
6. Dallas Mavericks 49-33 3rd in Southwest
Dirk remains a stud, and JKidd has enough left to keep them well assisted; Josh Howard has every incentive to play well enough to reclaim his reputation. And Rick Carlisle is an excellent coach, especially before he wears out his welcome. They look like a sure playoff participant to me, but unlikely to advance to the second round.
7. San Antonio Spurs 46-36 4th in Southwest
When will Ginobili return? And how close to 100% will he be? The answer will determine their playoff chances, as TP and Duncan remain studs, but the rest of the team would threaten the OKC Thunder as the worst in the league – they got old fast. Trading Scola to the Rockets now looks like one of the worst moves of the last few years.
8. Portland Trail Blazers 44-38 2nd in Northwest
Oden = Robert Parish, or Mutombo, or Okafor, or Dampier? They hope the right comparison isn’t Sam Bowie, but the injuries keep coming. The rest of the team is very promising but very young, and it’s not clear how many (if any) of their guys will turn into stars instead of solid role players; the best bet, Brandon Roy, may have a short shelf life – worries about his longevity are why he dropped as far in the draft as he did. I still see enough to hold off GST and Denver for the last playoff spot.
----out of playoffs:
9. Golden State Warriors 43-39 3rd in Pacific
They will just miss again, methinks; the Monta Ellis injury and Baron Davis loss offset Biedrins and B. Wright improving and a good wing rotation. Nellie could also effectively jump ship at any time, as he did in Dallas.
10. Denver Nuggets 40-42 3rd in Northwest
Their defense was underrated last year, but the linchpin just left town for the Clips with nothing in return, and AI (always overrated) is getting worse, not better. Can Nene and K-Mart stay healthy? Will Melo play D and exercise better shot selection and begin to have his value actually approach his rep? And PG remains a horror – A. Carter won’t shoot well two years in a row. When will G. Karl lose it?
11. Los Angeles Clippers 32-50 4th in Pacific
The Clips looked like an old and selfish team last year, and to boot had a player-coach locker-room cancer between Dunleavy and Maggette, to say nothing of Dunleavy-Elgin Baylor and Dunleavy-Donald Sterling. A year later, Sterling has given Dunleavy enough rope to hang himself with, in making him GM and coach. Camby is already hurt and furious at being dealt to the Clips, and Baron Davis is a high probability mailer-inner once the playoffs are seen to be a hopeless dream. They remain ancient and/or poor defenders on the wings, and they lost their best player and team leader in a botched free agency. The franchise appears cursed to perpetual mediocrity or worse.
12. Memphis Grizzlies 31-51 5th in Southwest
Gasol the Younger can bang, Rudy Gay can score and sky, and OJ Mayo is hyped. The young PG combo in Lowry and Conley has some promise, even if they are wee little men. They still lack defense and play in a brutal division, but they should show some progress at least.
13. Sacramento Kings 28-54 5th in Pacific
The Kings have some good offensive players – Martin, Brad Miller – and Reggie Theus seems a better coach than initially suspected. But the overall talent level is too low to expect contention anytime soon; they should be building for the future and perhaps should deal Miller to open up PT for Spencer Hawes et al.
14. Minnesota Timberwolves 26-56 4th in Northwest
The Wolves went 32-50 two years ago with Garnett, and correctly blew things up. They have an offensively gifted but defensively lacking frontcourt duo of Kevin Love and Al Jefferson, and a good-shooting swingman in Mike Miller, but still need legit players at both guard spots and defensive help – perhaps Corey Brewer can become a stopper. (Drafting Randy Foye was a big mistake; playing him at PG is a bigger one.) At least they have hope for the future – but they will continue to suck for the near future. But not as much as:
15. OKC Thunder 19-63 5th in Northwest
Their young bigs are busts – Nick Collison is the best, and he wouldn’t start anywhere else. Jeff Green is a tweener F out of place trying to guard 3s, and Durant a no-defense sieve watching 2s dash by him on the perimeter. Durant will score – 20 ppg is likely the minimum, and 25 isn’t completely out of the question – but a 45% FG pct likely is. He will attempt to enter the Carmelo Anthony overrated youngster pantheon soon. They may struggle to win a road game all year, but their sellout home crowds mean they will get enough of a goose there (especially against road-weary teams in mid-winter) that they will easily pass the 9-73 all-time loser mark.
Playoffs: Lakers, Rockets, Hornets and Suns win the first round. In a shocker, Shaq and the Suns depose the Lakers in round two, as Kobe launches 45 shots in the deciding game (and makes 10) and Shaq asks him again what his tastes like. The Rockets defeat a Hornets squad missing either Chandler or Peja, and the Rockets then beat the exhausted old Suns in the West finals.
Finals: The hype will say Yao vs LeBron – although it will be Artest guarding the King and shutting him down, as the Rockets win a title.
Regular season: MVP – Chris Paul. ROY- M. Beasley.
Eastern Conference (ranked by playoff seed):
TEAM PROJECTED RECORD PROJECTED DIV. FINISH
1. Boston Celtics 56-26 1st in Atlantic
The Big 3 may have a few more nicks and aches, but the rest of the team is for the most part young and improving, i.e., another year better; so even if KG and Ray-Ray continue their gentle decline, and Pierce regresses from his career year, they still appear the class of the East. The playoffs may be a different matter, but it’s hard to see anyone in the East passing them in the first 82.
2. Detroit Pistons 54-28 1st in Central
Sheed should be motivated as he plays for a new contract, and the slow decline of their non-Tayshaun starters is offset by a young and improving bench. The real question is whether they will sit tight at the trade deadline, or whether Joe Dumars will attempt to upgrade as he did when he first acquired Sheed. The next team’s fortunes may tell the tale:
3. Cleveland Cavaliers 50-32 2nd in Central
LeBron will start his serious MVP campaign by bringing 50 wins to the Cavs, and they may well use Wally World’s contract to upgrade at the trade deadline. Varejao is there for the whole season, the youngsters should be better, and Larry Hughes’s clanging jumper is finally gone… so my expectations are coming up, not down.
4. Atlanta Hawks 47-35 1st in Southeast
The shocker anew: most prognosticators have them out of the playoffs, but Mo Evans is a good replacement for Childress, and the rest of the team is young and getting better, not worse. And someone has to win the division, and here they are, led by likely all-stars Josh Smith and Joe Johnson, and blue-collar banger extraordinaire Al Horford. The status of Mike Bibby and his expiring deal as the trade deadline nears will also be interesting.
5. Toronto Raptors 48-34 2nd in Atlantic
They hope to have a healthy J. O’Neal, and Chris Bosh is now an elite player. They have a solid defensive team and a mediocre bench, hurt by the large white bustiness of Bargnani. Jose Calderon is the key – he must stay healthy, or they are in deep doodoo. But absent serious injury problems, I think they win at least 48, and possibly 50+.
6. Philadelphia 76ers 45-37 3rd in Atlantic
Unfortunately, players get worse, not better, after a major Achilles injury, so the 76ers won’t be getting the near-MVP Elton Brand of a few years back – 18 and 8 seems more likely than 24 and 10. And they lack any reasonable outside shooters, increasingly a liability in the ever more sophisticated defensive era played now. Still, their starters are good enough to get them over .500, although their bench could make it ugly if anyone important gets hurt.
7. Miami Heat 44-38 2nd in Southeast
Again, the Heat are an tough to predict this year, as the tank job of last season (how bad were they, really?) and the new coach multiply the uncertainties inherent in a team with a great player when healthy, a very good player when motivated/ not sulking, a fine role player who’s overmatched playing center, and a talented rookie (or two) with maturity problems. I’m assuming Wade stays healthy and has an MVP-candidate season; if not, I seriously doubt they make the playoffs.
8. Orlando Magic 43-39 3rd in Southeast
Turkoglu looks like the biggest lock in the league to regress this year – there’s no way he’s repeating last season’s great shooting. R. Lewis is also due to get hurt/ regress, and they still have a terrible problem at 2-guard and backup big. And I remain unimpressed by J. Nelson, and even less by his backups (with Carlos Arroyo departing). But D. Howard is a beast, and that’s why they get the last playoff spot.
----out of playoffs:
9. Indiana Pacers 39-43 3rd in Central
The Pacers have a slow roster with trouble shooting; TJ Ford will help for the 30 games he’s healthy, but…. Then what? A return to Tinsley? Dunleavy is another lock to regress, as he shot much better than he ever had before last year. And Danny Granger is the only player who’s both reasonably young and good and improving. I like Jim O’Brien, and Indy will be competitive most nights, but this looks like the upper range of their abilities.
10. New York Knicks 38-44 4th in Atlantic
Wow, what a huge coaching upgrade. The Knicks should be able to score even better, now that Marbury and Curry are nailed to the bench and Zach Randolph has a coach that will emphasize his strengths instead of his weaknesses. And David Lee is a great fit for D’Antoni’s system; but the guards are still subpar, and the defense even more so – and the latter isn’t D’Antoni’s forte. So more excitement and wins, but no real contention for a playoff spot – yet.
11. Chicago Bulls 37-45 4th in Central
Del Negro has a lot to learn as a coach, much like his young team. I expect Hinrich or Gordon to be traded (maybe both) by the deadline, as the Bulls continue to attempt to build for the future instead of contending now.
12. Charlotte Bobcats 36-46 4th in Southeast
Sean May is perpetually either hurt or out of shape, and Okafor has turned into a slightly better Erick Dampier. They don’t know who their PG is, and Adam Morrison looks like an all-time draft bust. Worst, GWallace is going to get concussed again at some point, dooming their playoff push and possibly his career. But at least MJ and Larry Brown can share Carolina stories while they golf.
13. New Jersey Nets 34-48 5th in Atlantic
Yi (the bust) will play rotation minutes and kill them; Vinsanity will mail it in if he’s still there after the trade deadline, and the rest of the team hopes to be better by 2010 and the hoped-for LeBron and Brooklyn sightings. I’d pick them lower, but the coach works hard and the last two teams will play horrid defense.
14. Milwaukee Bucks 30-52 5th in Central
Bad PGs – Charlie Bell starts, or finishes?! - and no one defends, no matter how much Skiles screams at them. And the screaming makes this the most likely team to quit on its coach – well, except maybe Charlotte if LB channels his Knicks experience. Bogut is decent, and Redd will likely be traded. That’s the best you can say. Pain awaits.
15. Washington Wizards 27-55 5th in Southeast
Selfish gunners with no D, but older and slower and recovering from surgery. Yuck. That’s what I wrote last year. I was a year early.
Playoffs: Boston, Detroit, Cleveland and Toronto win the first round. Boston and Cleveland win the second round, and in a seven game masterpiece, King LeBron beats the defending champs in the East finals.
Western Conference (ranked by playoff seed):
TEAM PROJECTED RECORD PROJECTED DIV. FINISH
1. Los Angeles Lakers 61-21 1st in Pacific
The Lakers have depth galore, and are soon to be even deeper with the players soon coming to town in trade for Lamar Odom – perhaps Shawn Marion, or Andrei Kirilenko. Kobe’s willingness to defer and defend, instead of being a ballhog, will determine whether this team actually wins the title. Their defense already looks fearsome, although Bynum’s health remains a key.
2. Houston Rockets 58-24 1st in Southwest
Adelman’s been a great regular season coach, and Artest (playing for a contract) is a great pickup. PG could be an issue, but they have multiple options there – Aaron Brooks looks like the pure PG they need to complement Alston. Assuming McGrady’s back specialist and Yao’s foot doc keep things healthy, they look like a terrific team.
3. New Orleans Hornets 55-27 2nd in Southwest
Chris Paul is an offensive juggernaut and possible MVP, David West an underappreciated stud, and Chandler a defensive force. And they added an excellent role player in James Posey. But while Peja was shockingly healthy last year, I don’t expect that to continue, and Chandler is a good bet to join him in civvies far more often than last year. Still, this looks like an excellent team, and with perfect health could threaten the Lakers for best record.
4. Utah Jazz 50-32 1st in Northwest
Kirilenko may be traded, and Harpring is falling off a cliff. But Ronnie Brewer is turning into a stud, Korver gives them much needed shooting, and Boozer and Okur are probably the best offensive 4-5 combo in the league (although their defense is a different matter). And Deron Williams looks like he could become a superstar. Injuries and uncertainty over Boozer’s contract status look like the primary threats, but no other team in their division is – at least until the Blazers get a little older.
5. Phoenix Suns 50-32 2nd in Pacific
The defense does look better, and Shaq looks healthy and motivated, although his explosiveness is never coming back. Their 8-man rotation is bolstered by Matt Barnes, a perfect fit as a role player. But they’re trying an overmatched rookie as Nash’s backup, and an injury to Steve could quickly put them in free fall. But assuming health, Amare Stoudamire should be a boxscore stuffer and they should remain a playoff team with legitimate aspirations of getting out of the first round – although a title now looks remote.
6. Dallas Mavericks 49-33 3rd in Southwest
Dirk remains a stud, and JKidd has enough left to keep them well assisted; Josh Howard has every incentive to play well enough to reclaim his reputation. And Rick Carlisle is an excellent coach, especially before he wears out his welcome. They look like a sure playoff participant to me, but unlikely to advance to the second round.
7. San Antonio Spurs 46-36 4th in Southwest
When will Ginobili return? And how close to 100% will he be? The answer will determine their playoff chances, as TP and Duncan remain studs, but the rest of the team would threaten the OKC Thunder as the worst in the league – they got old fast. Trading Scola to the Rockets now looks like one of the worst moves of the last few years.
8. Portland Trail Blazers 44-38 2nd in Northwest
Oden = Robert Parish, or Mutombo, or Okafor, or Dampier? They hope the right comparison isn’t Sam Bowie, but the injuries keep coming. The rest of the team is very promising but very young, and it’s not clear how many (if any) of their guys will turn into stars instead of solid role players; the best bet, Brandon Roy, may have a short shelf life – worries about his longevity are why he dropped as far in the draft as he did. I still see enough to hold off GST and Denver for the last playoff spot.
----out of playoffs:
9. Golden State Warriors 43-39 3rd in Pacific
They will just miss again, methinks; the Monta Ellis injury and Baron Davis loss offset Biedrins and B. Wright improving and a good wing rotation. Nellie could also effectively jump ship at any time, as he did in Dallas.
10. Denver Nuggets 40-42 3rd in Northwest
Their defense was underrated last year, but the linchpin just left town for the Clips with nothing in return, and AI (always overrated) is getting worse, not better. Can Nene and K-Mart stay healthy? Will Melo play D and exercise better shot selection and begin to have his value actually approach his rep? And PG remains a horror – A. Carter won’t shoot well two years in a row. When will G. Karl lose it?
11. Los Angeles Clippers 32-50 4th in Pacific
The Clips looked like an old and selfish team last year, and to boot had a player-coach locker-room cancer between Dunleavy and Maggette, to say nothing of Dunleavy-Elgin Baylor and Dunleavy-Donald Sterling. A year later, Sterling has given Dunleavy enough rope to hang himself with, in making him GM and coach. Camby is already hurt and furious at being dealt to the Clips, and Baron Davis is a high probability mailer-inner once the playoffs are seen to be a hopeless dream. They remain ancient and/or poor defenders on the wings, and they lost their best player and team leader in a botched free agency. The franchise appears cursed to perpetual mediocrity or worse.
12. Memphis Grizzlies 31-51 5th in Southwest
Gasol the Younger can bang, Rudy Gay can score and sky, and OJ Mayo is hyped. The young PG combo in Lowry and Conley has some promise, even if they are wee little men. They still lack defense and play in a brutal division, but they should show some progress at least.
13. Sacramento Kings 28-54 5th in Pacific
The Kings have some good offensive players – Martin, Brad Miller – and Reggie Theus seems a better coach than initially suspected. But the overall talent level is too low to expect contention anytime soon; they should be building for the future and perhaps should deal Miller to open up PT for Spencer Hawes et al.
14. Minnesota Timberwolves 26-56 4th in Northwest
The Wolves went 32-50 two years ago with Garnett, and correctly blew things up. They have an offensively gifted but defensively lacking frontcourt duo of Kevin Love and Al Jefferson, and a good-shooting swingman in Mike Miller, but still need legit players at both guard spots and defensive help – perhaps Corey Brewer can become a stopper. (Drafting Randy Foye was a big mistake; playing him at PG is a bigger one.) At least they have hope for the future – but they will continue to suck for the near future. But not as much as:
15. OKC Thunder 19-63 5th in Northwest
Their young bigs are busts – Nick Collison is the best, and he wouldn’t start anywhere else. Jeff Green is a tweener F out of place trying to guard 3s, and Durant a no-defense sieve watching 2s dash by him on the perimeter. Durant will score – 20 ppg is likely the minimum, and 25 isn’t completely out of the question – but a 45% FG pct likely is. He will attempt to enter the Carmelo Anthony overrated youngster pantheon soon. They may struggle to win a road game all year, but their sellout home crowds mean they will get enough of a goose there (especially against road-weary teams in mid-winter) that they will easily pass the 9-73 all-time loser mark.
Playoffs: Lakers, Rockets, Hornets and Suns win the first round. In a shocker, Shaq and the Suns depose the Lakers in round two, as Kobe launches 45 shots in the deciding game (and makes 10) and Shaq asks him again what his tastes like. The Rockets defeat a Hornets squad missing either Chandler or Peja, and the Rockets then beat the exhausted old Suns in the West finals.
Finals: The hype will say Yao vs LeBron – although it will be Artest guarding the King and shutting him down, as the Rockets win a title.
Regular season: MVP – Chris Paul. ROY- M. Beasley.
Sunday, June 15, 2008
McCain's misogyny
"Why is Chelsea Clinton so ugly?
Because her father is Janet Reno."
Straight from the mouth of John McCain, 1998. He apologized, saying it was 'only a joke' - after first denying he told it, then lying a second time by saying he heard it on Leno. I guess making fun of folk's appearance (and implicit lesbian-bashing) is what John finds hilarious. I hope all the women voting for McCain out of spite over Hillary’s loss realize just what they are voting for…
http://www.salon.com/news/1998/06/25newsb.html
Because her father is Janet Reno."
Straight from the mouth of John McCain, 1998. He apologized, saying it was 'only a joke' - after first denying he told it, then lying a second time by saying he heard it on Leno. I guess making fun of folk's appearance (and implicit lesbian-bashing) is what John finds hilarious. I hope all the women voting for McCain out of spite over Hillary’s loss realize just what they are voting for…
http://www.salon.com/news/1998/06/25newsb.html
Saturday, February 23, 2008
Vice Presidential Speculation
Vice President Speculation Forum – for Barack – ranked in rough order of plausibility, and leaving aside Hillary and John Edwards, who for different reasons I think won’t be chosen.
Jim Webb, D, VA. A prime example of a “Reagan Democrat”, his military bona fides include the personal - his son is actually serving in Iraq. Intellectual (a trait likely to appeal to Barack) - he has written books and was Reagan's Secretary of the Navy, the first Marine to hold that job. He’s had high profile assignments, and is on both Armed Services and Foreign Relations committees, helping Barack on the national security issue McCain is sure to raise. Bonus: Virginia is a traditional Red state rapidly turning purple.
Bill Nelson, D, FL, former astronaut, and also on both Armed Services and Foreign Relations committees. Less charismatic/ popular/ great backstory than Webb, but from an even more important swing state.
Also from Florida:
Bob Graham, retired senator and former governor. His executive experience could help ward off the ‘never ran anything’ meme, and as a bonus, he chaired the Senate Intelligence committee and voted against Iraq resolution in 2003 because (unlike Hillary) he had read the entire intelligence report on WMD.
Wesley Clark, D, Arkansas. As Supreme Commander of NATO during a successful war in the former Yugoslavia, has military credibility (although unpopular among much of the brass, apparently). Ran desultory campaign in 2004, and closely linked with the Clintons, which could either help or hinder his chances, depending on the level of enmity/ opportunism there.
Sam Nunn, retired D, GA. He also could serve as an effective counter to McCain on national security. Could particularly help with the link between nuclear policy and foreign policy, as Iran/ terrorist/ other nuclear proliferation could be huge issue. Georgia also possible purple state, given the 2008 relative primary turnouts and McCain’s loss there.
Gov. Kathleen Sebelius, D, Kansas – gave the State of the Union response, an early endorser of Barack, and could help a red state cross over, with perhaps having coattails in other Midwest states. Obviously also appeals to those who want a non-Hillary woman on the ticket, to help keep female voters in the fold and turning out in droves.
And on the off-chance he wants to really push the unity and inclusiveness theme:
Chuck Hagel, R, Nebraska, retiring. A decorated Vietnam vet who presumably can’t be Swift boated, and well-known Republican thorn in the side of Bush, he’s already known to work closely with Obama on nuclear non-proliferation. He has already been linked to leaving the Repubs for a VP post as Bloomberg's running mate in his (apparently foregone) independent bid.
And for funs and grins –
Bill Clinton. The Constitution apparently doesn’t forbid it, but… it’ll never happen.
Jim Webb, D, VA. A prime example of a “Reagan Democrat”, his military bona fides include the personal - his son is actually serving in Iraq. Intellectual (a trait likely to appeal to Barack) - he has written books and was Reagan's Secretary of the Navy, the first Marine to hold that job. He’s had high profile assignments, and is on both Armed Services and Foreign Relations committees, helping Barack on the national security issue McCain is sure to raise. Bonus: Virginia is a traditional Red state rapidly turning purple.
Bill Nelson, D, FL, former astronaut, and also on both Armed Services and Foreign Relations committees. Less charismatic/ popular/ great backstory than Webb, but from an even more important swing state.
Also from Florida:
Bob Graham, retired senator and former governor. His executive experience could help ward off the ‘never ran anything’ meme, and as a bonus, he chaired the Senate Intelligence committee and voted against Iraq resolution in 2003 because (unlike Hillary) he had read the entire intelligence report on WMD.
Wesley Clark, D, Arkansas. As Supreme Commander of NATO during a successful war in the former Yugoslavia, has military credibility (although unpopular among much of the brass, apparently). Ran desultory campaign in 2004, and closely linked with the Clintons, which could either help or hinder his chances, depending on the level of enmity/ opportunism there.
Sam Nunn, retired D, GA. He also could serve as an effective counter to McCain on national security. Could particularly help with the link between nuclear policy and foreign policy, as Iran/ terrorist/ other nuclear proliferation could be huge issue. Georgia also possible purple state, given the 2008 relative primary turnouts and McCain’s loss there.
Gov. Kathleen Sebelius, D, Kansas – gave the State of the Union response, an early endorser of Barack, and could help a red state cross over, with perhaps having coattails in other Midwest states. Obviously also appeals to those who want a non-Hillary woman on the ticket, to help keep female voters in the fold and turning out in droves.
And on the off-chance he wants to really push the unity and inclusiveness theme:
Chuck Hagel, R, Nebraska, retiring. A decorated Vietnam vet who presumably can’t be Swift boated, and well-known Republican thorn in the side of Bush, he’s already known to work closely with Obama on nuclear non-proliferation. He has already been linked to leaving the Repubs for a VP post as Bloomberg's running mate in his (apparently foregone) independent bid.
And for funs and grins –
Bill Clinton. The Constitution apparently doesn’t forbid it, but… it’ll never happen.
Monday, October 29, 2007
The Kobe rumors
This blog has certainly enjoyed wearing out various trade scenarios for one Kobe Bryant, and the plausibility of one coming to fruition has never seemed higher. The leading candidate remains the Chicago Bulls, with rumors having the Lakers asking for Deng, Gordon, Thomas and Noah, and the Bulls and Kobe rejecting it - Kobe can reject it because he has a no-trade clause, and can turn down a deal if he deems it leaves his new team too depleted. The Bulls Paxson is known for playing hardball, and despite the media fit if it happens (imagine the Chicago Tribune headlines when it turns out they turned down getting MJ version 2), I halfway suspect they won't make the deal. The most plausible version may involve salary cap chicanery that has PJ Brown sign and traded with a 1-year contract (but never having to report for work as a Laker) along with 2 or 3 of those 4 youngsters.
If Kupchak is dumb and feels he has to deal Kobe to the Eastern conference, the Wiz and Gilbert Arenas look like the most likely deal; Kobe is thereby reunited with his friend Caron Butler. I think that is likely the worst deal the Lakers could make. But if Kupchak gets smart and trades for the best deal instead of insisting on sending Kobe East, new possibilities arise. The Mavs are one - while they won't swap Dirk, their love affair with Devin Harris won't get in the way of a deal. But salary cap restrictions mean a deal gets a bit complicated - the most plausible looks like Josh Howard plus Devin Harris plus some crappy bigs (Dampier, Mbenga) for Kobe + Radmanovic (whose snowboarding exploits and big contract make him a prime trade candidate for Lakers brass). The Mavs would still have Diop, Dirk, Stackhouse, Kobe and Jet Terry, plus various other bench parts, so this looks doable.
But my favorite deal (from a Laker standpoint) rumored so far is with the Suns, with Kobe heading to the Valley of the Sun for Barbosa, Marion, and the Suns-owned Hawks #1 pick in 2008. (It works under the cap). If I'm the Lakers, I can't imagine they'd get a better deal than that - not even from Dallas. And Phoenix would solve their Marion-Stoudamire standoff and give Nash some fearsome weapons. But, no bench. Could Phoenix win the title by playing Stoudamire, Diaw, GHill, Bell, Kobe, and Nash and almost no one else? I'd love to find out, for both their sakes and the Lakers.
If Kupchak is dumb and feels he has to deal Kobe to the Eastern conference, the Wiz and Gilbert Arenas look like the most likely deal; Kobe is thereby reunited with his friend Caron Butler. I think that is likely the worst deal the Lakers could make. But if Kupchak gets smart and trades for the best deal instead of insisting on sending Kobe East, new possibilities arise. The Mavs are one - while they won't swap Dirk, their love affair with Devin Harris won't get in the way of a deal. But salary cap restrictions mean a deal gets a bit complicated - the most plausible looks like Josh Howard plus Devin Harris plus some crappy bigs (Dampier, Mbenga) for Kobe + Radmanovic (whose snowboarding exploits and big contract make him a prime trade candidate for Lakers brass). The Mavs would still have Diop, Dirk, Stackhouse, Kobe and Jet Terry, plus various other bench parts, so this looks doable.
But my favorite deal (from a Laker standpoint) rumored so far is with the Suns, with Kobe heading to the Valley of the Sun for Barbosa, Marion, and the Suns-owned Hawks #1 pick in 2008. (It works under the cap). If I'm the Lakers, I can't imagine they'd get a better deal than that - not even from Dallas. And Phoenix would solve their Marion-Stoudamire standoff and give Nash some fearsome weapons. But, no bench. Could Phoenix win the title by playing Stoudamire, Diaw, GHill, Bell, Kobe, and Nash and almost no one else? I'd love to find out, for both their sakes and the Lakers.
Sunday, October 28, 2007
fearless NBA predictions 2007-8
NBA predictions 2007-8:
Eastern Conference (ranked by playoff seed):
TEAM PROJECTED RECORD PROJECTED DIV. FINISH
1. Detroit Pistons 56-26 1st in Central
Sheed looks motivated, their bench may well be better, and they play well together. Plus, they won’t have to cover for CWebb on D.
2. Chicago Bulls 52-30 2nd in Central
I suspect the roster will change before Jan 2008, as I expect Kobe to become a Bull before New Year’s. How that will kill their chemistry will not become completely clear until the playoffs.
3. Boston Celtics 48-34 1st in Atlantic
The Big 3 will mostly mesh well, but Pierce and Allen may have health and/or chemistry issues by season’s end, and their weak bench will doom them in the playoffs. I expect Big Baby Davis to deserve major rotation minutes by then….
4. Atlanta Hawks 45-37 1st in Southeast
The shocker: someone has to win the division, and here they are, led by all-star Joe Johnson and the deepest team in the division. Al Horford will deserve the award, but with Durant’s pub will probably finish 2nd in ROY voting.
5. Cleveland Cavaliers 50-32 3rd in Central
LeBron will coast through a good portion of the schedule again, and his supporting cast is another year older, mostly a bad thing. Plus, Varejao remains unsigned… so my expectations are coming down a tad.
6. Miami Heat 44-38 2nd in Southeast
The Heat are an tough to predict this year, as the health of their big 2 and the chemistry issues with Ricky Davis multiply uncertainties. Still, the team is better with Davis taking A. Walker’s minutes, and Shaq and Wade should both play 50-60 games. In the weak East, that gets them in.
7. Orlando Magic 43-39 3rd in Southeast
Not a fan of R. Lewis or J. Nelson, but D Howard looks like he’s becoming a true beast. That plus getting something from Redick and Turkoglu should assure a playoff spot.
8. Toronto Raptors 43-39 2nd in Atlantic
They overachieved last year, but have a roster that should still play well together. Absent serious injury problems (esp to Bosh), I think they make it.
----out of playoffs:
9. New Jersey Nets 38-44 3rd in Atlantic
Vinsanity will coast with his new deal, RJeff will clang jumpers and/or get hurt, and Kidd will wish he had Olympians to pass to and will probably push behind the scenes for a trade.
10. Charlotte Bobcats 37-45 4th in Southeast
I agree with Hollinger – if Sean May didn’t get hurt, they’d have made the playoffs. Losing Adam Morrison helps, sad as it is to say. But GWallace is likely to get hurt at some point, dooming their playoff push.
11. Washington Wizards 35-47 5th in Southeast
Selfish gunners with no D, but older and slower and recovering from surgery. Yuck.
12. Milwaukee Bucks 35-47 4th in Central
Bad chemistry from the PGs who wanted to go to Miami in free agency, but stayed because of money/ restricted status. Plus, Yi (the bust) will play rotation minutes and kill them – cf Adam Morrison last season. That offsets improvement from Bogut.
13. New York Knicks 34-48 4th in Atlantic
The Knicks should be able to score, just because the NBA doesn’t call 3 seconds much and Curry and Randolph will do plenty of damage down low against the league tendency towards smaller, quicker bigs. But that same tendency will exacerbate their already lamentable defense, and their overrated guards (Marbury, Crawford, etc) may melt down if required to feed the post nonstop. By season’s end, it could be ugly in the media and on the team.
14. Indiana Pacers 29-53 5th in Central
The Pacers have a slow roster with trouble shooting and a big man who doesn’t want to be there and thinks he’s better than he actually is. And though I like Jim O’Brien, he’s no Rick Carlisle as a coach. Pain awaits.
15. Philadelphia 76ers 23-59 5th in Atlantic
As it becomes clear that Andre Miller is their best player, but well past his prime, and Iguodala merely tantalizes, this becomes the go-nowhere team for the next 5 years.
Playoffs: Miami upsets Boston and Orlando knocks off Kobe’s Bulls in the first round, joining Detroit and Cleveland. Detroit and Miami make the Eastern finals, where in a shocker, DWade makes a case that he deserved KG’s MVP trophy and the Heat have one last hurrah in the Finals.
Western Conference (ranked by playoff seed):
TEAM PROJECTED RECORD PROJECTED DIV. FINISH
1. Dallas Mavericks 59-23 1st in Southwest
They’ll slip from 67 wins, but remain the best regular season team in the league. Dirk will lose MVP to KG, but will have another fabulous season.
2. Houston Rockets 58-24 2nd in Southwest
Adelman’s been a great regular season coach, and Scola is a nice pickup. PG could be an issue, but they have multiple options there. Assuming McGrady’s back specialist keeps doing his magic, they look like a terrific team.
3. Phoenix Suns 54-28 1st in Pacific
The league is beginning to adjust to their style, and with their penurious owner’s personnel expulsions, their depth is now tissue thin. If the Stoudamire-Marion envyfest isn’t resolved, it could be a tough season, and I think their title dreams left with Nash’s bloody nose and the suspensions in last year’s playoffs.
4. Utah Jazz 50-32 1st in Northwest
Kirilenko will either be happier or traded, and Ronnie Brewer’s emergence will stabilize their 2-guard situation. Even if Boozer misses 20 games, they look like the class of the Northwest. If he misses 60, though….
5. San Antonio Spurs 56-26 3rd in Southwest
I think this is the year that some of the triumvirate of Parker/ Ginobili/ Duncan miss some serious time, although I expect them back healthy for the playoffs – and the veteran Popovich will be fine with that.
6. Denver Nuggets 47-35 2nd in Northwest
Questions galore: will Camby, Nene and Kmart stay healthy? Will AI and Melo shoot them into or out of more games? And can they find a decent PG?
7. Golden State Warriors 45-37 2nd in Pacific
Nellie’s show has Biedrins improving and good possibilities on defense, as (with the exception of Monta Ellis) their rotation players can all switch the pick and roll without mismatch problems thanks to their big guards/ swingmen. As long as Baron Davis stays healthy (admittedly a large conditional), I think they’re playoff bound.
8. Los Angeles Lakers 41-41 3rd in Pacific
The Lakers have depth, and are soon to be even deeper with the multiple players coming to town for Kobe. Once those fellows arrive and Kobe leaves, the pall will lift and the Lakers will make a late playoff push to come from behind to grab the 8th seed, led by new stars Luol Deng and Joakim Noah.
----out of playoffs:
9. New Orleans Hornets 39-43 4th in Southwest
Chris Paul should be an offensive juggernaut, and Chandler a defensive force. Unfortunately, they don’t have enough else to put them into the playoffs, and will rue the contract they gave Peja every day until it ends.
10. Memphis Grizzlies 38-44 5th in Southwest
A healthy Spanish tandem, a terrific young PG combo in Lowry and Conley, and Miller’s marksmanship from 3 – what’s not to like? Defense. But they should play entertaining ball under Phoenix transplant Iavaroni, at least.
11. Seattle SuperSonics 33-49 3rd in Northwest
Their young bigs are theoretically healthy, and you would think losing Lewis and Allen as swingmen would improve their D, however much it hurts their offense. You’d be wrong, as Durant will be a sieve. But he’ll score and board a bit (18 and 7 look about right) and get the ROY in a developmental year of what figures to be a long career in the great wet Northwest – or so the good citizens of Seattle hope.
12. Portland Trail Blazers 28-54 4th in Northwest
No Oden, Roy is hurting, and… they have four or five PGs and little interior defense. In 5 years they should be really good, but this year will be tough.
13. Sacramento Kings 26-56 4th in Pacific
The Kings have some good players – Martin, Artest – and Miller has reported in his best shape in a while. That said, they still may play the worst D around – well, except for the two teams still below them. Which are:
14. Los Angeles Clippers 24-58 5th in Pacific
The Clips looked like an old and selfish team last year; a year later, they lost their best player by far and otherwise did nothing to improve, and even didn’t address the player-coach locker-room cancer, letting Maggette fester all offseason, As he enters free agency next summer, think he’ll worry about anything but gunning? Their only hope is Elton’s early return, but he likely will never be the same player as before the Achilles snapped.
15. Minnesota Timberwolves 20-62 5th in Northwest
The Wolves went 32-50 with Garnett, and should not be better without him. Well, actually, they might on offense – but their defense should be sufficiently horrid as to overwhelm any offensive improvement - especially as the refs don't let youngsters get away with much on defense. But now, they have hope for the future – it was the right move, even if it came a year or 2 too late.
Playoffs: Dallas, Houston, Phoenix and the Spurs win the first round as expected. Dallas takes out the Spurs in an epic 2nd round, and Houston whips the Suns. And home court proves huge as Dallas whips the Rockets in 7 in the conference finals, setting up:
Finals: The rematch, Mavericks against Heat! Mark Cuban promises to have a team of retired refs analyze every call DWade gets as the series begins. The Mavs run Shaq ragged and hack him relentlessly, and sweep the first two; Miami gets 2 /3 at home, and the Mavs finally win the title in game 6 back home. Dirk is Finals MVP and lets all who questioned him have it with both barrels in the postgame news conference.
Regular season: MVP – KG. ROY- Durant.
Comments?
Eastern Conference (ranked by playoff seed):
TEAM PROJECTED RECORD PROJECTED DIV. FINISH
1. Detroit Pistons 56-26 1st in Central
Sheed looks motivated, their bench may well be better, and they play well together. Plus, they won’t have to cover for CWebb on D.
2. Chicago Bulls 52-30 2nd in Central
I suspect the roster will change before Jan 2008, as I expect Kobe to become a Bull before New Year’s. How that will kill their chemistry will not become completely clear until the playoffs.
3. Boston Celtics 48-34 1st in Atlantic
The Big 3 will mostly mesh well, but Pierce and Allen may have health and/or chemistry issues by season’s end, and their weak bench will doom them in the playoffs. I expect Big Baby Davis to deserve major rotation minutes by then….
4. Atlanta Hawks 45-37 1st in Southeast
The shocker: someone has to win the division, and here they are, led by all-star Joe Johnson and the deepest team in the division. Al Horford will deserve the award, but with Durant’s pub will probably finish 2nd in ROY voting.
5. Cleveland Cavaliers 50-32 3rd in Central
LeBron will coast through a good portion of the schedule again, and his supporting cast is another year older, mostly a bad thing. Plus, Varejao remains unsigned… so my expectations are coming down a tad.
6. Miami Heat 44-38 2nd in Southeast
The Heat are an tough to predict this year, as the health of their big 2 and the chemistry issues with Ricky Davis multiply uncertainties. Still, the team is better with Davis taking A. Walker’s minutes, and Shaq and Wade should both play 50-60 games. In the weak East, that gets them in.
7. Orlando Magic 43-39 3rd in Southeast
Not a fan of R. Lewis or J. Nelson, but D Howard looks like he’s becoming a true beast. That plus getting something from Redick and Turkoglu should assure a playoff spot.
8. Toronto Raptors 43-39 2nd in Atlantic
They overachieved last year, but have a roster that should still play well together. Absent serious injury problems (esp to Bosh), I think they make it.
----out of playoffs:
9. New Jersey Nets 38-44 3rd in Atlantic
Vinsanity will coast with his new deal, RJeff will clang jumpers and/or get hurt, and Kidd will wish he had Olympians to pass to and will probably push behind the scenes for a trade.
10. Charlotte Bobcats 37-45 4th in Southeast
I agree with Hollinger – if Sean May didn’t get hurt, they’d have made the playoffs. Losing Adam Morrison helps, sad as it is to say. But GWallace is likely to get hurt at some point, dooming their playoff push.
11. Washington Wizards 35-47 5th in Southeast
Selfish gunners with no D, but older and slower and recovering from surgery. Yuck.
12. Milwaukee Bucks 35-47 4th in Central
Bad chemistry from the PGs who wanted to go to Miami in free agency, but stayed because of money/ restricted status. Plus, Yi (the bust) will play rotation minutes and kill them – cf Adam Morrison last season. That offsets improvement from Bogut.
13. New York Knicks 34-48 4th in Atlantic
The Knicks should be able to score, just because the NBA doesn’t call 3 seconds much and Curry and Randolph will do plenty of damage down low against the league tendency towards smaller, quicker bigs. But that same tendency will exacerbate their already lamentable defense, and their overrated guards (Marbury, Crawford, etc) may melt down if required to feed the post nonstop. By season’s end, it could be ugly in the media and on the team.
14. Indiana Pacers 29-53 5th in Central
The Pacers have a slow roster with trouble shooting and a big man who doesn’t want to be there and thinks he’s better than he actually is. And though I like Jim O’Brien, he’s no Rick Carlisle as a coach. Pain awaits.
15. Philadelphia 76ers 23-59 5th in Atlantic
As it becomes clear that Andre Miller is their best player, but well past his prime, and Iguodala merely tantalizes, this becomes the go-nowhere team for the next 5 years.
Playoffs: Miami upsets Boston and Orlando knocks off Kobe’s Bulls in the first round, joining Detroit and Cleveland. Detroit and Miami make the Eastern finals, where in a shocker, DWade makes a case that he deserved KG’s MVP trophy and the Heat have one last hurrah in the Finals.
Western Conference (ranked by playoff seed):
TEAM PROJECTED RECORD PROJECTED DIV. FINISH
1. Dallas Mavericks 59-23 1st in Southwest
They’ll slip from 67 wins, but remain the best regular season team in the league. Dirk will lose MVP to KG, but will have another fabulous season.
2. Houston Rockets 58-24 2nd in Southwest
Adelman’s been a great regular season coach, and Scola is a nice pickup. PG could be an issue, but they have multiple options there. Assuming McGrady’s back specialist keeps doing his magic, they look like a terrific team.
3. Phoenix Suns 54-28 1st in Pacific
The league is beginning to adjust to their style, and with their penurious owner’s personnel expulsions, their depth is now tissue thin. If the Stoudamire-Marion envyfest isn’t resolved, it could be a tough season, and I think their title dreams left with Nash’s bloody nose and the suspensions in last year’s playoffs.
4. Utah Jazz 50-32 1st in Northwest
Kirilenko will either be happier or traded, and Ronnie Brewer’s emergence will stabilize their 2-guard situation. Even if Boozer misses 20 games, they look like the class of the Northwest. If he misses 60, though….
5. San Antonio Spurs 56-26 3rd in Southwest
I think this is the year that some of the triumvirate of Parker/ Ginobili/ Duncan miss some serious time, although I expect them back healthy for the playoffs – and the veteran Popovich will be fine with that.
6. Denver Nuggets 47-35 2nd in Northwest
Questions galore: will Camby, Nene and Kmart stay healthy? Will AI and Melo shoot them into or out of more games? And can they find a decent PG?
7. Golden State Warriors 45-37 2nd in Pacific
Nellie’s show has Biedrins improving and good possibilities on defense, as (with the exception of Monta Ellis) their rotation players can all switch the pick and roll without mismatch problems thanks to their big guards/ swingmen. As long as Baron Davis stays healthy (admittedly a large conditional), I think they’re playoff bound.
8. Los Angeles Lakers 41-41 3rd in Pacific
The Lakers have depth, and are soon to be even deeper with the multiple players coming to town for Kobe. Once those fellows arrive and Kobe leaves, the pall will lift and the Lakers will make a late playoff push to come from behind to grab the 8th seed, led by new stars Luol Deng and Joakim Noah.
----out of playoffs:
9. New Orleans Hornets 39-43 4th in Southwest
Chris Paul should be an offensive juggernaut, and Chandler a defensive force. Unfortunately, they don’t have enough else to put them into the playoffs, and will rue the contract they gave Peja every day until it ends.
10. Memphis Grizzlies 38-44 5th in Southwest
A healthy Spanish tandem, a terrific young PG combo in Lowry and Conley, and Miller’s marksmanship from 3 – what’s not to like? Defense. But they should play entertaining ball under Phoenix transplant Iavaroni, at least.
11. Seattle SuperSonics 33-49 3rd in Northwest
Their young bigs are theoretically healthy, and you would think losing Lewis and Allen as swingmen would improve their D, however much it hurts their offense. You’d be wrong, as Durant will be a sieve. But he’ll score and board a bit (18 and 7 look about right) and get the ROY in a developmental year of what figures to be a long career in the great wet Northwest – or so the good citizens of Seattle hope.
12. Portland Trail Blazers 28-54 4th in Northwest
No Oden, Roy is hurting, and… they have four or five PGs and little interior defense. In 5 years they should be really good, but this year will be tough.
13. Sacramento Kings 26-56 4th in Pacific
The Kings have some good players – Martin, Artest – and Miller has reported in his best shape in a while. That said, they still may play the worst D around – well, except for the two teams still below them. Which are:
14. Los Angeles Clippers 24-58 5th in Pacific
The Clips looked like an old and selfish team last year; a year later, they lost their best player by far and otherwise did nothing to improve, and even didn’t address the player-coach locker-room cancer, letting Maggette fester all offseason, As he enters free agency next summer, think he’ll worry about anything but gunning? Their only hope is Elton’s early return, but he likely will never be the same player as before the Achilles snapped.
15. Minnesota Timberwolves 20-62 5th in Northwest
The Wolves went 32-50 with Garnett, and should not be better without him. Well, actually, they might on offense – but their defense should be sufficiently horrid as to overwhelm any offensive improvement - especially as the refs don't let youngsters get away with much on defense. But now, they have hope for the future – it was the right move, even if it came a year or 2 too late.
Playoffs: Dallas, Houston, Phoenix and the Spurs win the first round as expected. Dallas takes out the Spurs in an epic 2nd round, and Houston whips the Suns. And home court proves huge as Dallas whips the Rockets in 7 in the conference finals, setting up:
Finals: The rematch, Mavericks against Heat! Mark Cuban promises to have a team of retired refs analyze every call DWade gets as the series begins. The Mavs run Shaq ragged and hack him relentlessly, and sweep the first two; Miami gets 2 /3 at home, and the Mavs finally win the title in game 6 back home. Dirk is Finals MVP and lets all who questioned him have it with both barrels in the postgame news conference.
Regular season: MVP – KG. ROY- Durant.
Comments?
Sunday, September 23, 2007
A-Rod, the franchise owner?
This report gives Yankee fans a reason to worry even as their grasp on a playoff spot is almost assured: Apparently, A-Rod's agent, the notorious Scott Boras, is involved with another deal - the sale of the Chicago Cubs. And the rumor going round is that A-Rod will declare free agency and sign with the Cubs, for a contract worth $300 million dollars and a share of the new ownership stake in the Cubs!
Short of Steinbrenner deciding to sell A-Rod a piece of the Yankees, this looks like a hard deal to beat; so this may be the last opportunity for Yankee fans to boo A-Rod as one of their own. I'd love to see A-Rod and Mark Cuban own the Cubs - unless he'd rather buy the Braves, that is.
Short of Steinbrenner deciding to sell A-Rod a piece of the Yankees, this looks like a hard deal to beat; so this may be the last opportunity for Yankee fans to boo A-Rod as one of their own. I'd love to see A-Rod and Mark Cuban own the Cubs - unless he'd rather buy the Braves, that is.
Offense spreading?
College football is back, and quite exciting too - perhaps in part because scores seem to be on the rise; Oklahoma wins and averages 63 a game (!), and Louisville has perhaps the best passing QB in the land in Brian Brohm, throwing for 555 yards and 4 TDs in his last game - and losing. The famed 'black shirt' defense of Nebraska gave up 40+ for the second game in a row, the first time so doing in what seems like forever - and to Ball State! Even poor old Notre Dame, an offensive joke this season, scored two offensive TDs - and was still blown out, as its defense joined the crowd of those allowing over 30 points.
Recent years have shown the SEC as the best conference (followed by the Pac 10 - the Big 10 is now vastly overrated, and the Big 12 is top-heavy), and the big disparity with everyone else is on defense; the SEC annually has several teams in the top 20 on defense in raw stats, and even more if you adjust for strength of schedule.
One reason for the offensive explosion and SEC defensive dominance: the spread of the the spread offense, as popularized by Urban Meyer at Utah/ Florida and now many others. It makes team speed on defense more important than ever - and more particularly, skill in pass coverage and speed rushers.
The spread carves up zone defenses (played by slower, bigger defenses) by spreading them out and working the seams, and typically only the SEC (and a few other programs, like USC, Oklahoma or Texas) has the kind of athletes that can play effective man coverage on defense and also have front 4s that can rush the passer without blitzing. The return of the running QB (which gives the running game an option look, and/or an extra blocker) also helps offensive production a lot. Mike Vick would've accomplished much the same in the NFL, if he could've 1st, passed accurately, and 2nd, stayed out of trouble. But it will come, I expect. Be prepared for Pat White, Tim Tebow, Jake Locker and their ilk to be both running and passing in the NFL in a few years, revolutionizing the pro game as well.
Recent years have shown the SEC as the best conference (followed by the Pac 10 - the Big 10 is now vastly overrated, and the Big 12 is top-heavy), and the big disparity with everyone else is on defense; the SEC annually has several teams in the top 20 on defense in raw stats, and even more if you adjust for strength of schedule.
One reason for the offensive explosion and SEC defensive dominance: the spread of the the spread offense, as popularized by Urban Meyer at Utah/ Florida and now many others. It makes team speed on defense more important than ever - and more particularly, skill in pass coverage and speed rushers.
The spread carves up zone defenses (played by slower, bigger defenses) by spreading them out and working the seams, and typically only the SEC (and a few other programs, like USC, Oklahoma or Texas) has the kind of athletes that can play effective man coverage on defense and also have front 4s that can rush the passer without blitzing. The return of the running QB (which gives the running game an option look, and/or an extra blocker) also helps offensive production a lot. Mike Vick would've accomplished much the same in the NFL, if he could've 1st, passed accurately, and 2nd, stayed out of trouble. But it will come, I expect. Be prepared for Pat White, Tim Tebow, Jake Locker and their ilk to be both running and passing in the NFL in a few years, revolutionizing the pro game as well.
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