"Why is Chelsea Clinton so ugly?
Because her father is Janet Reno."
Straight from the mouth of John McCain, 1998. He apologized, saying it was 'only a joke' - after first denying he told it, then lying a second time by saying he heard it on Leno. I guess making fun of folk's appearance (and implicit lesbian-bashing) is what John finds hilarious. I hope all the women voting for McCain out of spite over Hillary’s loss realize just what they are voting for…
http://www.salon.com/news/1998/06/25newsb.html
Sunday, June 15, 2008
Saturday, February 23, 2008
Vice Presidential Speculation
Vice President Speculation Forum – for Barack – ranked in rough order of plausibility, and leaving aside Hillary and John Edwards, who for different reasons I think won’t be chosen.
Jim Webb, D, VA. A prime example of a “Reagan Democrat”, his military bona fides include the personal - his son is actually serving in Iraq. Intellectual (a trait likely to appeal to Barack) - he has written books and was Reagan's Secretary of the Navy, the first Marine to hold that job. He’s had high profile assignments, and is on both Armed Services and Foreign Relations committees, helping Barack on the national security issue McCain is sure to raise. Bonus: Virginia is a traditional Red state rapidly turning purple.
Bill Nelson, D, FL, former astronaut, and also on both Armed Services and Foreign Relations committees. Less charismatic/ popular/ great backstory than Webb, but from an even more important swing state.
Also from Florida:
Bob Graham, retired senator and former governor. His executive experience could help ward off the ‘never ran anything’ meme, and as a bonus, he chaired the Senate Intelligence committee and voted against Iraq resolution in 2003 because (unlike Hillary) he had read the entire intelligence report on WMD.
Wesley Clark, D, Arkansas. As Supreme Commander of NATO during a successful war in the former Yugoslavia, has military credibility (although unpopular among much of the brass, apparently). Ran desultory campaign in 2004, and closely linked with the Clintons, which could either help or hinder his chances, depending on the level of enmity/ opportunism there.
Sam Nunn, retired D, GA. He also could serve as an effective counter to McCain on national security. Could particularly help with the link between nuclear policy and foreign policy, as Iran/ terrorist/ other nuclear proliferation could be huge issue. Georgia also possible purple state, given the 2008 relative primary turnouts and McCain’s loss there.
Gov. Kathleen Sebelius, D, Kansas – gave the State of the Union response, an early endorser of Barack, and could help a red state cross over, with perhaps having coattails in other Midwest states. Obviously also appeals to those who want a non-Hillary woman on the ticket, to help keep female voters in the fold and turning out in droves.
And on the off-chance he wants to really push the unity and inclusiveness theme:
Chuck Hagel, R, Nebraska, retiring. A decorated Vietnam vet who presumably can’t be Swift boated, and well-known Republican thorn in the side of Bush, he’s already known to work closely with Obama on nuclear non-proliferation. He has already been linked to leaving the Repubs for a VP post as Bloomberg's running mate in his (apparently foregone) independent bid.
And for funs and grins –
Bill Clinton. The Constitution apparently doesn’t forbid it, but… it’ll never happen.
Jim Webb, D, VA. A prime example of a “Reagan Democrat”, his military bona fides include the personal - his son is actually serving in Iraq. Intellectual (a trait likely to appeal to Barack) - he has written books and was Reagan's Secretary of the Navy, the first Marine to hold that job. He’s had high profile assignments, and is on both Armed Services and Foreign Relations committees, helping Barack on the national security issue McCain is sure to raise. Bonus: Virginia is a traditional Red state rapidly turning purple.
Bill Nelson, D, FL, former astronaut, and also on both Armed Services and Foreign Relations committees. Less charismatic/ popular/ great backstory than Webb, but from an even more important swing state.
Also from Florida:
Bob Graham, retired senator and former governor. His executive experience could help ward off the ‘never ran anything’ meme, and as a bonus, he chaired the Senate Intelligence committee and voted against Iraq resolution in 2003 because (unlike Hillary) he had read the entire intelligence report on WMD.
Wesley Clark, D, Arkansas. As Supreme Commander of NATO during a successful war in the former Yugoslavia, has military credibility (although unpopular among much of the brass, apparently). Ran desultory campaign in 2004, and closely linked with the Clintons, which could either help or hinder his chances, depending on the level of enmity/ opportunism there.
Sam Nunn, retired D, GA. He also could serve as an effective counter to McCain on national security. Could particularly help with the link between nuclear policy and foreign policy, as Iran/ terrorist/ other nuclear proliferation could be huge issue. Georgia also possible purple state, given the 2008 relative primary turnouts and McCain’s loss there.
Gov. Kathleen Sebelius, D, Kansas – gave the State of the Union response, an early endorser of Barack, and could help a red state cross over, with perhaps having coattails in other Midwest states. Obviously also appeals to those who want a non-Hillary woman on the ticket, to help keep female voters in the fold and turning out in droves.
And on the off-chance he wants to really push the unity and inclusiveness theme:
Chuck Hagel, R, Nebraska, retiring. A decorated Vietnam vet who presumably can’t be Swift boated, and well-known Republican thorn in the side of Bush, he’s already known to work closely with Obama on nuclear non-proliferation. He has already been linked to leaving the Repubs for a VP post as Bloomberg's running mate in his (apparently foregone) independent bid.
And for funs and grins –
Bill Clinton. The Constitution apparently doesn’t forbid it, but… it’ll never happen.
Monday, October 29, 2007
The Kobe rumors
This blog has certainly enjoyed wearing out various trade scenarios for one Kobe Bryant, and the plausibility of one coming to fruition has never seemed higher. The leading candidate remains the Chicago Bulls, with rumors having the Lakers asking for Deng, Gordon, Thomas and Noah, and the Bulls and Kobe rejecting it - Kobe can reject it because he has a no-trade clause, and can turn down a deal if he deems it leaves his new team too depleted. The Bulls Paxson is known for playing hardball, and despite the media fit if it happens (imagine the Chicago Tribune headlines when it turns out they turned down getting MJ version 2), I halfway suspect they won't make the deal. The most plausible version may involve salary cap chicanery that has PJ Brown sign and traded with a 1-year contract (but never having to report for work as a Laker) along with 2 or 3 of those 4 youngsters.
If Kupchak is dumb and feels he has to deal Kobe to the Eastern conference, the Wiz and Gilbert Arenas look like the most likely deal; Kobe is thereby reunited with his friend Caron Butler. I think that is likely the worst deal the Lakers could make. But if Kupchak gets smart and trades for the best deal instead of insisting on sending Kobe East, new possibilities arise. The Mavs are one - while they won't swap Dirk, their love affair with Devin Harris won't get in the way of a deal. But salary cap restrictions mean a deal gets a bit complicated - the most plausible looks like Josh Howard plus Devin Harris plus some crappy bigs (Dampier, Mbenga) for Kobe + Radmanovic (whose snowboarding exploits and big contract make him a prime trade candidate for Lakers brass). The Mavs would still have Diop, Dirk, Stackhouse, Kobe and Jet Terry, plus various other bench parts, so this looks doable.
But my favorite deal (from a Laker standpoint) rumored so far is with the Suns, with Kobe heading to the Valley of the Sun for Barbosa, Marion, and the Suns-owned Hawks #1 pick in 2008. (It works under the cap). If I'm the Lakers, I can't imagine they'd get a better deal than that - not even from Dallas. And Phoenix would solve their Marion-Stoudamire standoff and give Nash some fearsome weapons. But, no bench. Could Phoenix win the title by playing Stoudamire, Diaw, GHill, Bell, Kobe, and Nash and almost no one else? I'd love to find out, for both their sakes and the Lakers.
If Kupchak is dumb and feels he has to deal Kobe to the Eastern conference, the Wiz and Gilbert Arenas look like the most likely deal; Kobe is thereby reunited with his friend Caron Butler. I think that is likely the worst deal the Lakers could make. But if Kupchak gets smart and trades for the best deal instead of insisting on sending Kobe East, new possibilities arise. The Mavs are one - while they won't swap Dirk, their love affair with Devin Harris won't get in the way of a deal. But salary cap restrictions mean a deal gets a bit complicated - the most plausible looks like Josh Howard plus Devin Harris plus some crappy bigs (Dampier, Mbenga) for Kobe + Radmanovic (whose snowboarding exploits and big contract make him a prime trade candidate for Lakers brass). The Mavs would still have Diop, Dirk, Stackhouse, Kobe and Jet Terry, plus various other bench parts, so this looks doable.
But my favorite deal (from a Laker standpoint) rumored so far is with the Suns, with Kobe heading to the Valley of the Sun for Barbosa, Marion, and the Suns-owned Hawks #1 pick in 2008. (It works under the cap). If I'm the Lakers, I can't imagine they'd get a better deal than that - not even from Dallas. And Phoenix would solve their Marion-Stoudamire standoff and give Nash some fearsome weapons. But, no bench. Could Phoenix win the title by playing Stoudamire, Diaw, GHill, Bell, Kobe, and Nash and almost no one else? I'd love to find out, for both their sakes and the Lakers.
Sunday, October 28, 2007
fearless NBA predictions 2007-8
NBA predictions 2007-8:
Eastern Conference (ranked by playoff seed):
TEAM PROJECTED RECORD PROJECTED DIV. FINISH
1. Detroit Pistons 56-26 1st in Central
Sheed looks motivated, their bench may well be better, and they play well together. Plus, they won’t have to cover for CWebb on D.
2. Chicago Bulls 52-30 2nd in Central
I suspect the roster will change before Jan 2008, as I expect Kobe to become a Bull before New Year’s. How that will kill their chemistry will not become completely clear until the playoffs.
3. Boston Celtics 48-34 1st in Atlantic
The Big 3 will mostly mesh well, but Pierce and Allen may have health and/or chemistry issues by season’s end, and their weak bench will doom them in the playoffs. I expect Big Baby Davis to deserve major rotation minutes by then….
4. Atlanta Hawks 45-37 1st in Southeast
The shocker: someone has to win the division, and here they are, led by all-star Joe Johnson and the deepest team in the division. Al Horford will deserve the award, but with Durant’s pub will probably finish 2nd in ROY voting.
5. Cleveland Cavaliers 50-32 3rd in Central
LeBron will coast through a good portion of the schedule again, and his supporting cast is another year older, mostly a bad thing. Plus, Varejao remains unsigned… so my expectations are coming down a tad.
6. Miami Heat 44-38 2nd in Southeast
The Heat are an tough to predict this year, as the health of their big 2 and the chemistry issues with Ricky Davis multiply uncertainties. Still, the team is better with Davis taking A. Walker’s minutes, and Shaq and Wade should both play 50-60 games. In the weak East, that gets them in.
7. Orlando Magic 43-39 3rd in Southeast
Not a fan of R. Lewis or J. Nelson, but D Howard looks like he’s becoming a true beast. That plus getting something from Redick and Turkoglu should assure a playoff spot.
8. Toronto Raptors 43-39 2nd in Atlantic
They overachieved last year, but have a roster that should still play well together. Absent serious injury problems (esp to Bosh), I think they make it.
----out of playoffs:
9. New Jersey Nets 38-44 3rd in Atlantic
Vinsanity will coast with his new deal, RJeff will clang jumpers and/or get hurt, and Kidd will wish he had Olympians to pass to and will probably push behind the scenes for a trade.
10. Charlotte Bobcats 37-45 4th in Southeast
I agree with Hollinger – if Sean May didn’t get hurt, they’d have made the playoffs. Losing Adam Morrison helps, sad as it is to say. But GWallace is likely to get hurt at some point, dooming their playoff push.
11. Washington Wizards 35-47 5th in Southeast
Selfish gunners with no D, but older and slower and recovering from surgery. Yuck.
12. Milwaukee Bucks 35-47 4th in Central
Bad chemistry from the PGs who wanted to go to Miami in free agency, but stayed because of money/ restricted status. Plus, Yi (the bust) will play rotation minutes and kill them – cf Adam Morrison last season. That offsets improvement from Bogut.
13. New York Knicks 34-48 4th in Atlantic
The Knicks should be able to score, just because the NBA doesn’t call 3 seconds much and Curry and Randolph will do plenty of damage down low against the league tendency towards smaller, quicker bigs. But that same tendency will exacerbate their already lamentable defense, and their overrated guards (Marbury, Crawford, etc) may melt down if required to feed the post nonstop. By season’s end, it could be ugly in the media and on the team.
14. Indiana Pacers 29-53 5th in Central
The Pacers have a slow roster with trouble shooting and a big man who doesn’t want to be there and thinks he’s better than he actually is. And though I like Jim O’Brien, he’s no Rick Carlisle as a coach. Pain awaits.
15. Philadelphia 76ers 23-59 5th in Atlantic
As it becomes clear that Andre Miller is their best player, but well past his prime, and Iguodala merely tantalizes, this becomes the go-nowhere team for the next 5 years.
Playoffs: Miami upsets Boston and Orlando knocks off Kobe’s Bulls in the first round, joining Detroit and Cleveland. Detroit and Miami make the Eastern finals, where in a shocker, DWade makes a case that he deserved KG’s MVP trophy and the Heat have one last hurrah in the Finals.
Western Conference (ranked by playoff seed):
TEAM PROJECTED RECORD PROJECTED DIV. FINISH
1. Dallas Mavericks 59-23 1st in Southwest
They’ll slip from 67 wins, but remain the best regular season team in the league. Dirk will lose MVP to KG, but will have another fabulous season.
2. Houston Rockets 58-24 2nd in Southwest
Adelman’s been a great regular season coach, and Scola is a nice pickup. PG could be an issue, but they have multiple options there. Assuming McGrady’s back specialist keeps doing his magic, they look like a terrific team.
3. Phoenix Suns 54-28 1st in Pacific
The league is beginning to adjust to their style, and with their penurious owner’s personnel expulsions, their depth is now tissue thin. If the Stoudamire-Marion envyfest isn’t resolved, it could be a tough season, and I think their title dreams left with Nash’s bloody nose and the suspensions in last year’s playoffs.
4. Utah Jazz 50-32 1st in Northwest
Kirilenko will either be happier or traded, and Ronnie Brewer’s emergence will stabilize their 2-guard situation. Even if Boozer misses 20 games, they look like the class of the Northwest. If he misses 60, though….
5. San Antonio Spurs 56-26 3rd in Southwest
I think this is the year that some of the triumvirate of Parker/ Ginobili/ Duncan miss some serious time, although I expect them back healthy for the playoffs – and the veteran Popovich will be fine with that.
6. Denver Nuggets 47-35 2nd in Northwest
Questions galore: will Camby, Nene and Kmart stay healthy? Will AI and Melo shoot them into or out of more games? And can they find a decent PG?
7. Golden State Warriors 45-37 2nd in Pacific
Nellie’s show has Biedrins improving and good possibilities on defense, as (with the exception of Monta Ellis) their rotation players can all switch the pick and roll without mismatch problems thanks to their big guards/ swingmen. As long as Baron Davis stays healthy (admittedly a large conditional), I think they’re playoff bound.
8. Los Angeles Lakers 41-41 3rd in Pacific
The Lakers have depth, and are soon to be even deeper with the multiple players coming to town for Kobe. Once those fellows arrive and Kobe leaves, the pall will lift and the Lakers will make a late playoff push to come from behind to grab the 8th seed, led by new stars Luol Deng and Joakim Noah.
----out of playoffs:
9. New Orleans Hornets 39-43 4th in Southwest
Chris Paul should be an offensive juggernaut, and Chandler a defensive force. Unfortunately, they don’t have enough else to put them into the playoffs, and will rue the contract they gave Peja every day until it ends.
10. Memphis Grizzlies 38-44 5th in Southwest
A healthy Spanish tandem, a terrific young PG combo in Lowry and Conley, and Miller’s marksmanship from 3 – what’s not to like? Defense. But they should play entertaining ball under Phoenix transplant Iavaroni, at least.
11. Seattle SuperSonics 33-49 3rd in Northwest
Their young bigs are theoretically healthy, and you would think losing Lewis and Allen as swingmen would improve their D, however much it hurts their offense. You’d be wrong, as Durant will be a sieve. But he’ll score and board a bit (18 and 7 look about right) and get the ROY in a developmental year of what figures to be a long career in the great wet Northwest – or so the good citizens of Seattle hope.
12. Portland Trail Blazers 28-54 4th in Northwest
No Oden, Roy is hurting, and… they have four or five PGs and little interior defense. In 5 years they should be really good, but this year will be tough.
13. Sacramento Kings 26-56 4th in Pacific
The Kings have some good players – Martin, Artest – and Miller has reported in his best shape in a while. That said, they still may play the worst D around – well, except for the two teams still below them. Which are:
14. Los Angeles Clippers 24-58 5th in Pacific
The Clips looked like an old and selfish team last year; a year later, they lost their best player by far and otherwise did nothing to improve, and even didn’t address the player-coach locker-room cancer, letting Maggette fester all offseason, As he enters free agency next summer, think he’ll worry about anything but gunning? Their only hope is Elton’s early return, but he likely will never be the same player as before the Achilles snapped.
15. Minnesota Timberwolves 20-62 5th in Northwest
The Wolves went 32-50 with Garnett, and should not be better without him. Well, actually, they might on offense – but their defense should be sufficiently horrid as to overwhelm any offensive improvement - especially as the refs don't let youngsters get away with much on defense. But now, they have hope for the future – it was the right move, even if it came a year or 2 too late.
Playoffs: Dallas, Houston, Phoenix and the Spurs win the first round as expected. Dallas takes out the Spurs in an epic 2nd round, and Houston whips the Suns. And home court proves huge as Dallas whips the Rockets in 7 in the conference finals, setting up:
Finals: The rematch, Mavericks against Heat! Mark Cuban promises to have a team of retired refs analyze every call DWade gets as the series begins. The Mavs run Shaq ragged and hack him relentlessly, and sweep the first two; Miami gets 2 /3 at home, and the Mavs finally win the title in game 6 back home. Dirk is Finals MVP and lets all who questioned him have it with both barrels in the postgame news conference.
Regular season: MVP – KG. ROY- Durant.
Comments?
Eastern Conference (ranked by playoff seed):
TEAM PROJECTED RECORD PROJECTED DIV. FINISH
1. Detroit Pistons 56-26 1st in Central
Sheed looks motivated, their bench may well be better, and they play well together. Plus, they won’t have to cover for CWebb on D.
2. Chicago Bulls 52-30 2nd in Central
I suspect the roster will change before Jan 2008, as I expect Kobe to become a Bull before New Year’s. How that will kill their chemistry will not become completely clear until the playoffs.
3. Boston Celtics 48-34 1st in Atlantic
The Big 3 will mostly mesh well, but Pierce and Allen may have health and/or chemistry issues by season’s end, and their weak bench will doom them in the playoffs. I expect Big Baby Davis to deserve major rotation minutes by then….
4. Atlanta Hawks 45-37 1st in Southeast
The shocker: someone has to win the division, and here they are, led by all-star Joe Johnson and the deepest team in the division. Al Horford will deserve the award, but with Durant’s pub will probably finish 2nd in ROY voting.
5. Cleveland Cavaliers 50-32 3rd in Central
LeBron will coast through a good portion of the schedule again, and his supporting cast is another year older, mostly a bad thing. Plus, Varejao remains unsigned… so my expectations are coming down a tad.
6. Miami Heat 44-38 2nd in Southeast
The Heat are an tough to predict this year, as the health of their big 2 and the chemistry issues with Ricky Davis multiply uncertainties. Still, the team is better with Davis taking A. Walker’s minutes, and Shaq and Wade should both play 50-60 games. In the weak East, that gets them in.
7. Orlando Magic 43-39 3rd in Southeast
Not a fan of R. Lewis or J. Nelson, but D Howard looks like he’s becoming a true beast. That plus getting something from Redick and Turkoglu should assure a playoff spot.
8. Toronto Raptors 43-39 2nd in Atlantic
They overachieved last year, but have a roster that should still play well together. Absent serious injury problems (esp to Bosh), I think they make it.
----out of playoffs:
9. New Jersey Nets 38-44 3rd in Atlantic
Vinsanity will coast with his new deal, RJeff will clang jumpers and/or get hurt, and Kidd will wish he had Olympians to pass to and will probably push behind the scenes for a trade.
10. Charlotte Bobcats 37-45 4th in Southeast
I agree with Hollinger – if Sean May didn’t get hurt, they’d have made the playoffs. Losing Adam Morrison helps, sad as it is to say. But GWallace is likely to get hurt at some point, dooming their playoff push.
11. Washington Wizards 35-47 5th in Southeast
Selfish gunners with no D, but older and slower and recovering from surgery. Yuck.
12. Milwaukee Bucks 35-47 4th in Central
Bad chemistry from the PGs who wanted to go to Miami in free agency, but stayed because of money/ restricted status. Plus, Yi (the bust) will play rotation minutes and kill them – cf Adam Morrison last season. That offsets improvement from Bogut.
13. New York Knicks 34-48 4th in Atlantic
The Knicks should be able to score, just because the NBA doesn’t call 3 seconds much and Curry and Randolph will do plenty of damage down low against the league tendency towards smaller, quicker bigs. But that same tendency will exacerbate their already lamentable defense, and their overrated guards (Marbury, Crawford, etc) may melt down if required to feed the post nonstop. By season’s end, it could be ugly in the media and on the team.
14. Indiana Pacers 29-53 5th in Central
The Pacers have a slow roster with trouble shooting and a big man who doesn’t want to be there and thinks he’s better than he actually is. And though I like Jim O’Brien, he’s no Rick Carlisle as a coach. Pain awaits.
15. Philadelphia 76ers 23-59 5th in Atlantic
As it becomes clear that Andre Miller is their best player, but well past his prime, and Iguodala merely tantalizes, this becomes the go-nowhere team for the next 5 years.
Playoffs: Miami upsets Boston and Orlando knocks off Kobe’s Bulls in the first round, joining Detroit and Cleveland. Detroit and Miami make the Eastern finals, where in a shocker, DWade makes a case that he deserved KG’s MVP trophy and the Heat have one last hurrah in the Finals.
Western Conference (ranked by playoff seed):
TEAM PROJECTED RECORD PROJECTED DIV. FINISH
1. Dallas Mavericks 59-23 1st in Southwest
They’ll slip from 67 wins, but remain the best regular season team in the league. Dirk will lose MVP to KG, but will have another fabulous season.
2. Houston Rockets 58-24 2nd in Southwest
Adelman’s been a great regular season coach, and Scola is a nice pickup. PG could be an issue, but they have multiple options there. Assuming McGrady’s back specialist keeps doing his magic, they look like a terrific team.
3. Phoenix Suns 54-28 1st in Pacific
The league is beginning to adjust to their style, and with their penurious owner’s personnel expulsions, their depth is now tissue thin. If the Stoudamire-Marion envyfest isn’t resolved, it could be a tough season, and I think their title dreams left with Nash’s bloody nose and the suspensions in last year’s playoffs.
4. Utah Jazz 50-32 1st in Northwest
Kirilenko will either be happier or traded, and Ronnie Brewer’s emergence will stabilize their 2-guard situation. Even if Boozer misses 20 games, they look like the class of the Northwest. If he misses 60, though….
5. San Antonio Spurs 56-26 3rd in Southwest
I think this is the year that some of the triumvirate of Parker/ Ginobili/ Duncan miss some serious time, although I expect them back healthy for the playoffs – and the veteran Popovich will be fine with that.
6. Denver Nuggets 47-35 2nd in Northwest
Questions galore: will Camby, Nene and Kmart stay healthy? Will AI and Melo shoot them into or out of more games? And can they find a decent PG?
7. Golden State Warriors 45-37 2nd in Pacific
Nellie’s show has Biedrins improving and good possibilities on defense, as (with the exception of Monta Ellis) their rotation players can all switch the pick and roll without mismatch problems thanks to their big guards/ swingmen. As long as Baron Davis stays healthy (admittedly a large conditional), I think they’re playoff bound.
8. Los Angeles Lakers 41-41 3rd in Pacific
The Lakers have depth, and are soon to be even deeper with the multiple players coming to town for Kobe. Once those fellows arrive and Kobe leaves, the pall will lift and the Lakers will make a late playoff push to come from behind to grab the 8th seed, led by new stars Luol Deng and Joakim Noah.
----out of playoffs:
9. New Orleans Hornets 39-43 4th in Southwest
Chris Paul should be an offensive juggernaut, and Chandler a defensive force. Unfortunately, they don’t have enough else to put them into the playoffs, and will rue the contract they gave Peja every day until it ends.
10. Memphis Grizzlies 38-44 5th in Southwest
A healthy Spanish tandem, a terrific young PG combo in Lowry and Conley, and Miller’s marksmanship from 3 – what’s not to like? Defense. But they should play entertaining ball under Phoenix transplant Iavaroni, at least.
11. Seattle SuperSonics 33-49 3rd in Northwest
Their young bigs are theoretically healthy, and you would think losing Lewis and Allen as swingmen would improve their D, however much it hurts their offense. You’d be wrong, as Durant will be a sieve. But he’ll score and board a bit (18 and 7 look about right) and get the ROY in a developmental year of what figures to be a long career in the great wet Northwest – or so the good citizens of Seattle hope.
12. Portland Trail Blazers 28-54 4th in Northwest
No Oden, Roy is hurting, and… they have four or five PGs and little interior defense. In 5 years they should be really good, but this year will be tough.
13. Sacramento Kings 26-56 4th in Pacific
The Kings have some good players – Martin, Artest – and Miller has reported in his best shape in a while. That said, they still may play the worst D around – well, except for the two teams still below them. Which are:
14. Los Angeles Clippers 24-58 5th in Pacific
The Clips looked like an old and selfish team last year; a year later, they lost their best player by far and otherwise did nothing to improve, and even didn’t address the player-coach locker-room cancer, letting Maggette fester all offseason, As he enters free agency next summer, think he’ll worry about anything but gunning? Their only hope is Elton’s early return, but he likely will never be the same player as before the Achilles snapped.
15. Minnesota Timberwolves 20-62 5th in Northwest
The Wolves went 32-50 with Garnett, and should not be better without him. Well, actually, they might on offense – but their defense should be sufficiently horrid as to overwhelm any offensive improvement - especially as the refs don't let youngsters get away with much on defense. But now, they have hope for the future – it was the right move, even if it came a year or 2 too late.
Playoffs: Dallas, Houston, Phoenix and the Spurs win the first round as expected. Dallas takes out the Spurs in an epic 2nd round, and Houston whips the Suns. And home court proves huge as Dallas whips the Rockets in 7 in the conference finals, setting up:
Finals: The rematch, Mavericks against Heat! Mark Cuban promises to have a team of retired refs analyze every call DWade gets as the series begins. The Mavs run Shaq ragged and hack him relentlessly, and sweep the first two; Miami gets 2 /3 at home, and the Mavs finally win the title in game 6 back home. Dirk is Finals MVP and lets all who questioned him have it with both barrels in the postgame news conference.
Regular season: MVP – KG. ROY- Durant.
Comments?
Sunday, September 23, 2007
A-Rod, the franchise owner?
This report gives Yankee fans a reason to worry even as their grasp on a playoff spot is almost assured: Apparently, A-Rod's agent, the notorious Scott Boras, is involved with another deal - the sale of the Chicago Cubs. And the rumor going round is that A-Rod will declare free agency and sign with the Cubs, for a contract worth $300 million dollars and a share of the new ownership stake in the Cubs!
Short of Steinbrenner deciding to sell A-Rod a piece of the Yankees, this looks like a hard deal to beat; so this may be the last opportunity for Yankee fans to boo A-Rod as one of their own. I'd love to see A-Rod and Mark Cuban own the Cubs - unless he'd rather buy the Braves, that is.
Short of Steinbrenner deciding to sell A-Rod a piece of the Yankees, this looks like a hard deal to beat; so this may be the last opportunity for Yankee fans to boo A-Rod as one of their own. I'd love to see A-Rod and Mark Cuban own the Cubs - unless he'd rather buy the Braves, that is.
Offense spreading?
College football is back, and quite exciting too - perhaps in part because scores seem to be on the rise; Oklahoma wins and averages 63 a game (!), and Louisville has perhaps the best passing QB in the land in Brian Brohm, throwing for 555 yards and 4 TDs in his last game - and losing. The famed 'black shirt' defense of Nebraska gave up 40+ for the second game in a row, the first time so doing in what seems like forever - and to Ball State! Even poor old Notre Dame, an offensive joke this season, scored two offensive TDs - and was still blown out, as its defense joined the crowd of those allowing over 30 points.
Recent years have shown the SEC as the best conference (followed by the Pac 10 - the Big 10 is now vastly overrated, and the Big 12 is top-heavy), and the big disparity with everyone else is on defense; the SEC annually has several teams in the top 20 on defense in raw stats, and even more if you adjust for strength of schedule.
One reason for the offensive explosion and SEC defensive dominance: the spread of the the spread offense, as popularized by Urban Meyer at Utah/ Florida and now many others. It makes team speed on defense more important than ever - and more particularly, skill in pass coverage and speed rushers.
The spread carves up zone defenses (played by slower, bigger defenses) by spreading them out and working the seams, and typically only the SEC (and a few other programs, like USC, Oklahoma or Texas) has the kind of athletes that can play effective man coverage on defense and also have front 4s that can rush the passer without blitzing. The return of the running QB (which gives the running game an option look, and/or an extra blocker) also helps offensive production a lot. Mike Vick would've accomplished much the same in the NFL, if he could've 1st, passed accurately, and 2nd, stayed out of trouble. But it will come, I expect. Be prepared for Pat White, Tim Tebow, Jake Locker and their ilk to be both running and passing in the NFL in a few years, revolutionizing the pro game as well.
Recent years have shown the SEC as the best conference (followed by the Pac 10 - the Big 10 is now vastly overrated, and the Big 12 is top-heavy), and the big disparity with everyone else is on defense; the SEC annually has several teams in the top 20 on defense in raw stats, and even more if you adjust for strength of schedule.
One reason for the offensive explosion and SEC defensive dominance: the spread of the the spread offense, as popularized by Urban Meyer at Utah/ Florida and now many others. It makes team speed on defense more important than ever - and more particularly, skill in pass coverage and speed rushers.
The spread carves up zone defenses (played by slower, bigger defenses) by spreading them out and working the seams, and typically only the SEC (and a few other programs, like USC, Oklahoma or Texas) has the kind of athletes that can play effective man coverage on defense and also have front 4s that can rush the passer without blitzing. The return of the running QB (which gives the running game an option look, and/or an extra blocker) also helps offensive production a lot. Mike Vick would've accomplished much the same in the NFL, if he could've 1st, passed accurately, and 2nd, stayed out of trouble. But it will come, I expect. Be prepared for Pat White, Tim Tebow, Jake Locker and their ilk to be both running and passing in the NFL in a few years, revolutionizing the pro game as well.
Sunday, September 16, 2007
Putin's provocations
First, Putin appoints a new prime minister seen as a mere placeholder, bypassing the two favored candidates; an action which completely upsets all the assumptions about succession and raise doubts that Putin will step down as President next year, as the current Russian constitution requires.
The same week, Gen Alexander Rushkin, Putin's deputy chief of staff, announces they have just dropped the 'father of all bombs', twice as deadly as the largest US bomb (the so-called MOAB), which, due to nanotechnology, has a core temperature twice that of the US bomb; Rushkin claims that where it explodes, "All that is alive merely evaporates." But some experts think they faked the videotape of the explosion - why, no one knows.
So we have a leader who likely has ordered political assassinations using radioactive polonium, who has subverted the rule of law and the political process, and even sidelined his main intra-party competitors; and has made many menacing comments and over the past year done many things (highlighted in some previous alarming posts) to make Russia an obvious military threat to its neighbors and the world again. In terms of his dangerousness to US interests, he makes Saddam look like a Boy Scout. But Bush has 'looked into his soul' and discovered we have nothing to worry about...
And we know to just trust Bush's judgment on these things.
Update: At least a few in the media have noticed. But CNN et al. continue to ignore Russia unless polonium poisoning is involved.
The same week, Gen Alexander Rushkin, Putin's deputy chief of staff, announces they have just dropped the 'father of all bombs', twice as deadly as the largest US bomb (the so-called MOAB), which, due to nanotechnology, has a core temperature twice that of the US bomb; Rushkin claims that where it explodes, "All that is alive merely evaporates." But some experts think they faked the videotape of the explosion - why, no one knows.
So we have a leader who likely has ordered political assassinations using radioactive polonium, who has subverted the rule of law and the political process, and even sidelined his main intra-party competitors; and has made many menacing comments and over the past year done many things (highlighted in some previous alarming posts) to make Russia an obvious military threat to its neighbors and the world again. In terms of his dangerousness to US interests, he makes Saddam look like a Boy Scout. But Bush has 'looked into his soul' and discovered we have nothing to worry about...
And we know to just trust Bush's judgment on these things.
Update: At least a few in the media have noticed. But CNN et al. continue to ignore Russia unless polonium poisoning is involved.
Greenspan's shocker about Iraq
It's difficult for any revelation to startle about the multifaceted debacle now called the war in Iraq (which includes a civil war, anti-terrorism raids, battles for Kurdish independence, attempts by Iran to undermine Iraqi sovereignty, and who knows how many other conflicts). But Alan Greenspan's new memoir turns the trick - in it, he claims that it's a shame the it was "politically inconvenient to acknowledge what everyone knows: the Iraq war is largely about oil”.
Or more specifically, Saddam Hussein posed a threat to the security of oil supplies in the Middle East - and Bush wants those secured (for his friends in Big Oil) more than anything. As long as the terrorists pose an ongoing danger to Iraqi refineries and their US-compliant officials, it seems Bush's main purpose for the war remains in danger, and hence our troops will not withdraw. We may be there to provide security, all right - but not for ordinary Iraqis, of whom we are now responsible for killing more than 1 million since 2003. Instead, it's their oil wells that must be secured...
And the Iranian oil wells may have to be secured next. Get ready for more bombs!
Or more specifically, Saddam Hussein posed a threat to the security of oil supplies in the Middle East - and Bush wants those secured (for his friends in Big Oil) more than anything. As long as the terrorists pose an ongoing danger to Iraqi refineries and their US-compliant officials, it seems Bush's main purpose for the war remains in danger, and hence our troops will not withdraw. We may be there to provide security, all right - but not for ordinary Iraqis, of whom we are now responsible for killing more than 1 million since 2003. Instead, it's their oil wells that must be secured...
And the Iranian oil wells may have to be secured next. Get ready for more bombs!
Saturday, September 8, 2007
When does personhood begin?
Personhood, properly understood, is not a species-specific concept; to believe otherwise is to commit the intellectual sin of speciesism, as well as ignore the raft of science-fiction shows as well as the work on AI that demonstrate the intellectual possibility (if not yet the physical actuality) of non-human persons.
That being said, not all humans are persons - fetuses, for example, are clearly not - rather, they are potential persons; beings which, if their developmental changes go well, will eventually become persons, but do not have such status yet. Analogously, my students are potential college graduates, but not actual college graduates; they have begun a process that, if all goes well and certain changes occur (like passing my class!), will result in their attaining the status of college graduate; but they do not have such status now, and may never do so, if things do not go well.
It is clear that the abilities which one must attain in order to become a person are mental; no body type or specific physical ability, like walking or eyesight, are required. An ability to pass the Turing Test - to convince an interlocutor that one could communicate indistinguishably from a normal human adult - seems sufficient, but perhaps not necessary. The kind of mental autonomy that we consider required for moral responsibility - for holding a person responsible for their actions - seems a better bet for a necessary and sufficient condition. Let's call that agency - the capacity for the rational exercise of free will.
Given the 'ought implies can' principle of ethics, along with the principle of alternative possibilities, a person can thus be defined as a being that has two or more courses of action open to them, and has rational control over which of the courses of action they pursue.
So when do humans make the transition from potential personhood to full fledged personhood? Under normal circumstances, at the age of two; and recent research has reinforced the finding that toddlers of that age have a social intelligence (of the sort required for such agency) missing from our most intelligent species relatives, chimps and orangutans.
So a normal neonate is not a person, but a normal two-year old has become one. One becomes a person (no matter what the species) when one becomes an agent. And although it is certainly conceptually possible to have members of many different species demonstrate agency, at the moment, only one species has convincingly demonstrated what it takes to be a person - Homo sapiens sapiens. (Although it is VERY interesting, to me anyway, to speculate on whether Neanderthal man had what it takes - I tend to believe (s)he did, and so two different species of persons co-existed for a while - perhaps until our species wiped them out, perhaps even eating them.)
So while I doubt very much that any extraterrestrial persons exist, it isn't because they are conceptually impossible - not at all. Rather, it's because I suspect that once persons evolve in any particular biosphere, they rapidly destroy themselves and the ecosystems required for their survival. In other words, I suspect many species across the Universe have attained personhood in the past - and none of them have lasted, or else we would be aware of them (or members of them!) now. It is the nature of intelligent civilizations to destroy themselves. Alas, that's another version of the Argument for Doomsday - from the Fermi Paradox. Hopefully I'll publish it in more detail soon... before it's too late!
That being said, not all humans are persons - fetuses, for example, are clearly not - rather, they are potential persons; beings which, if their developmental changes go well, will eventually become persons, but do not have such status yet. Analogously, my students are potential college graduates, but not actual college graduates; they have begun a process that, if all goes well and certain changes occur (like passing my class!), will result in their attaining the status of college graduate; but they do not have such status now, and may never do so, if things do not go well.
It is clear that the abilities which one must attain in order to become a person are mental; no body type or specific physical ability, like walking or eyesight, are required. An ability to pass the Turing Test - to convince an interlocutor that one could communicate indistinguishably from a normal human adult - seems sufficient, but perhaps not necessary. The kind of mental autonomy that we consider required for moral responsibility - for holding a person responsible for their actions - seems a better bet for a necessary and sufficient condition. Let's call that agency - the capacity for the rational exercise of free will.
Given the 'ought implies can' principle of ethics, along with the principle of alternative possibilities, a person can thus be defined as a being that has two or more courses of action open to them, and has rational control over which of the courses of action they pursue.
So when do humans make the transition from potential personhood to full fledged personhood? Under normal circumstances, at the age of two; and recent research has reinforced the finding that toddlers of that age have a social intelligence (of the sort required for such agency) missing from our most intelligent species relatives, chimps and orangutans.
So a normal neonate is not a person, but a normal two-year old has become one. One becomes a person (no matter what the species) when one becomes an agent. And although it is certainly conceptually possible to have members of many different species demonstrate agency, at the moment, only one species has convincingly demonstrated what it takes to be a person - Homo sapiens sapiens. (Although it is VERY interesting, to me anyway, to speculate on whether Neanderthal man had what it takes - I tend to believe (s)he did, and so two different species of persons co-existed for a while - perhaps until our species wiped them out, perhaps even eating them.)
So while I doubt very much that any extraterrestrial persons exist, it isn't because they are conceptually impossible - not at all. Rather, it's because I suspect that once persons evolve in any particular biosphere, they rapidly destroy themselves and the ecosystems required for their survival. In other words, I suspect many species across the Universe have attained personhood in the past - and none of them have lasted, or else we would be aware of them (or members of them!) now. It is the nature of intelligent civilizations to destroy themselves. Alas, that's another version of the Argument for Doomsday - from the Fermi Paradox. Hopefully I'll publish it in more detail soon... before it's too late!
Team USA recap
A little belatedly, a quick recap of Team USA's mostly successful summer of FIBA qualifying for the 2008 Olympics, and a suggestion about what they should do next summer:
The basics you likely know: the team went undefeated, and was never seriously challenged. In their closest game, their second-round match vs Argentina, they led by 15 (28-13) at the end of the first quarter - and the same margin at game's end. That game revealed the potential weakness of the team; at the end of two hard weeks of playing a game nearly every day, the team looked tired and was outscored the second half, despite the Argentinean star Luis Scola being in foul trouble and barely playing after that blowout first quarter.
The team had far better defensive intensity than past national squads, and their 3-point shooting was improved as well. If they continue that, they may be unbeatable - but Argentina gave a game while missing 5 current or former NBA players (Ginobili, Nocioni, Oberto, Herrmann, and Pepe Sanchez). And Spain, Italy, France and other Euro squads are also laden with NBA talent, and Greece beat the last USA squad with an advanced pick and roll game the US defense still struggles to stop. The depth of Team USA should make them better positioned to prevail at the ends of games and play better and better deep into a tournament in which games are played every day, and less talented teams must play their starters nearly 40 minutes every night. But the USA oddly seems to play worse in second halves - and this goes back to their losses over the last several competitions.
Hence, my suggestion: NBA players are psychologically used to playing 32-36, or even 40, minutes a game, but are used to playing tired on 'back to backs', much less when they have to play 3 or even 4 nights in a row. And easy way to make the Olympic schedule more like an NBA one would be to divide the roster into 3 groups of 4, and have 2 of those groups (8 men) play each game, while the other group of 4 gets the night off. That way, no one would ever play more than two nights in a row, and the team would truly be the freshest when it came to the games that really counted at tourney's end.
Here's how I'd divvy the roster up - first, from this summer's roster:
Group 1: Howard, LeBron, Kobe, Kidd
Group 2: Amare, Melo, Redd, Billups
Group 3: Chandler, Prince, Miller, DWilliams
That also corresponds to their pecking order in status. But I suspect Chris Bosh, Dwayne Wade, and less certainly, Elton Brand (if healthy), Chris Paul, and perhaps Shane Battier or Joe Johnson will make the team next season. So here's my projected groups, based on my expectations for next year's roster:
Group 1: Howard, LeBron, Kobe, Kidd (the same)
Group 2: Brand, Melo, DWade, Billups
Group 3: Bosh, Amare, Redd, DWilliams
Bosh would bump up to group 2 if Brand isn't healthy. Group 1 would be the fastbreak specialists, group 2 is better in the halfcourt, and group 3 would provide a shooter, 3rd PG, and size. If they use this roster with my proposed rotation, with group 1 and 2 playing against the toughest opponents, I suspect they could waltz to the gold. In any event, I think Team USA fails to take full advantage of its depth, and some system like mine should be instituted to help avoid another upset in 2008.
The basics you likely know: the team went undefeated, and was never seriously challenged. In their closest game, their second-round match vs Argentina, they led by 15 (28-13) at the end of the first quarter - and the same margin at game's end. That game revealed the potential weakness of the team; at the end of two hard weeks of playing a game nearly every day, the team looked tired and was outscored the second half, despite the Argentinean star Luis Scola being in foul trouble and barely playing after that blowout first quarter.
The team had far better defensive intensity than past national squads, and their 3-point shooting was improved as well. If they continue that, they may be unbeatable - but Argentina gave a game while missing 5 current or former NBA players (Ginobili, Nocioni, Oberto, Herrmann, and Pepe Sanchez). And Spain, Italy, France and other Euro squads are also laden with NBA talent, and Greece beat the last USA squad with an advanced pick and roll game the US defense still struggles to stop. The depth of Team USA should make them better positioned to prevail at the ends of games and play better and better deep into a tournament in which games are played every day, and less talented teams must play their starters nearly 40 minutes every night. But the USA oddly seems to play worse in second halves - and this goes back to their losses over the last several competitions.
Hence, my suggestion: NBA players are psychologically used to playing 32-36, or even 40, minutes a game, but are used to playing tired on 'back to backs', much less when they have to play 3 or even 4 nights in a row. And easy way to make the Olympic schedule more like an NBA one would be to divide the roster into 3 groups of 4, and have 2 of those groups (8 men) play each game, while the other group of 4 gets the night off. That way, no one would ever play more than two nights in a row, and the team would truly be the freshest when it came to the games that really counted at tourney's end.
Here's how I'd divvy the roster up - first, from this summer's roster:
Group 1: Howard, LeBron, Kobe, Kidd
Group 2: Amare, Melo, Redd, Billups
Group 3: Chandler, Prince, Miller, DWilliams
That also corresponds to their pecking order in status. But I suspect Chris Bosh, Dwayne Wade, and less certainly, Elton Brand (if healthy), Chris Paul, and perhaps Shane Battier or Joe Johnson will make the team next season. So here's my projected groups, based on my expectations for next year's roster:
Group 1: Howard, LeBron, Kobe, Kidd (the same)
Group 2: Brand, Melo, DWade, Billups
Group 3: Bosh, Amare, Redd, DWilliams
Bosh would bump up to group 2 if Brand isn't healthy. Group 1 would be the fastbreak specialists, group 2 is better in the halfcourt, and group 3 would provide a shooter, 3rd PG, and size. If they use this roster with my proposed rotation, with group 1 and 2 playing against the toughest opponents, I suspect they could waltz to the gold. In any event, I think Team USA fails to take full advantage of its depth, and some system like mine should be instituted to help avoid another upset in 2008.
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