An old model of Doomsday

All-out nuclear war - unthinkable now that the cold war is over? Not so fast. Most people worried about nuclear war nowadays concentrate on 'rogue states' like Iran or North Korea firing off a missile or two, or some non-governmental terror group like al-Qaida sneaking a nuke into a city center. While horrible, such events would have no direct impact on the vast majority of humanity, and in no sense presage a Doomsday scenario.

The US and the Soviet Union were the only countries ever armed with enough weapons to plausibly cause a real worldwide Doomsday; and despite mutual reductions since the fall of the Soviet Union in 1991, both the US and Russia maintain nearly 6000 warheads (estimated) capable of use, with over 1000 on 'high alert', ready to fire within a few minutes. Both countries also have many more warheads in storage, capable of being hauled out and used within a relatively short period of time - the Russian estimate in storage is up to 16,000.

During Vladimir Putin's presidency, relations with the US have grown progressively frostier, with Putin in a speech on Victory Day (May 9th) rhetorically comparing the US to Hitler's Third Reich, and promising “The victory once again will be ours.” Perhaps even worse, at a conference in Munich on February 10th, Putin delivered a venomous speech directly addressed to an audience that included US defense secretary Robert Gates, Senator and Presidential candidate John McCain, as well as German Chancellor Angela Merkel and other international heavyweights.

In his February 10 speech, Putin asserted all of the following:

“Unilateral and frequently illegitimate actions [by the US] had caused new human tragedies and created new centres of tension.” [The world] is witnessing an almost uncontained hyper use of force, which was plunging it into an abyss of permanent conflicts. ... the United States has overstepped its national borders in every way, exhibiting a greater and greater disdain for international law."

Putin then claimed that the US actions were the cause of a new arms race, and the cause of some countries acquiring weapons of mass destruction.

Despite such rhetoric, most observers think Russia is unlikely to launch a nuclear war with the US, and the US likewise will not launch a first strike on Russia. (Of course, how many of these same observers predicted the demise of the USSR in 1991? Kremlinology is a notoriously imprecise science). But there is a more fearsome scenario, in which Russia joins in a nuclear confrontation that it was not originally a part of - and such a three way nuclear war might actually cause Doomsday, or come close. The third party - China. More to come...