The KG sweepstakes

Rumor by other blogs that seems grounded in reality has 8 teams with offers for KG and 6 of them being serious.

The Laker offer begins with Kwame Brown (expiring contract), Lamar Odom and Bynum, and unless the Lakers can find some way to sweeten it (trading Odom for something more appetizing to Minny, or giving them multiple first round picks?), it doesn't look too plausible.

Dallas apparently is offering Keith Van Horn (re-signed but expiring contract - only 1 year guaranteed), Austin Croshere (another re-signed but expiring contract- only 1 year guaranteed), DeSagana Diop, Josh Howard, and Jason Terry. Dallas would have to pay Croshere and Van Horn some serious coin to make the deal work under the cap, and Minny conceivably wouldn't even bother asking them to actually show up, which would account for their willingness to be a part of the deal. If Minnesota could get Devin Harris instead of Terry, or a high pick like Yi (perhaps by trading Harris to Milwaukee? - it would explain one odd draft-day rumor), things might look better for Dallas. (Minnesota apparently really wanted Al Horford, but that doesn't seem to be plausible anymore.) Dallas wants to keep Stackhouse (and Stack doesn't want to go to Minny), so he won't be part of any deal.

The plausibility of Phoenix's bid apparently depends on their willingness to include Amare, which will become financially easier after his base year compensation penalty goes down in the next few weeks. (Given his guarantee to opt out if traded there, Minny wants Shawn Marion even less than Lamar Odom). I still find it hard to believe the Phoenix owner will countenance adding a $28.75 mil player, especially as it likely makes the luxury tax unavoidable. Would KG waive his $6.75 million trade kicker just to go to Phoenix? I doubt it, especially as it's likely he's going somewhere else where he'd get it.

Chicago is supposedly still a player, though that would require not only Noah, Gordon, Thomas and perhaps Nocioni, but also PJ Brown agreeing to be another re-signed but expiring contract with only 1 year guaranteed - and that one year is with Minnesota. By all accounts Brown isn't keen on that and is already negotiating a contract with Dallas. I suppose 3-way possibilities would exist, but none seem plausible in getting KG to Chicago - and they don't want to be a tax payer either.

The Knicks of course make offers for KG, but without expiring contracts I can't imagine how they could actually land KG - no matter how many unprotected draft choices Isiah offers.

Similarly, Miami is likely in the bidding, as they clearly have a 'win-now' mentality - but while Jason Williams is a nice juicy expiring contract, Udonis Haslem is about all they could offer of any actual value - and that ain't much. If I were them, I'd still offer multiple unprotected draft picks and go for it anyway. A healthy Shaq-Wade-KG triumvirate looks like a near certain Eastern conference champ next season - and their title aspirations are quickly closing otherwise.

The last team clearly in the bidding is Golden State - they can offer Al Harrington, Patrick O'Bryant, Sarunas Jasikevicius (expiring), Adonal Foyle, and some part of the combo of Pietrus, Biedrins, and Monta Ellis. The problem is the lack of expiring contracts - but they have a large trade exception from the JRich deal and could offer to also take on Troy Hudson or Marko Jaric in a separate deal. But they don't want to move Biedrins, and that still leaves Minnesota with a lot of longterm money (esp Foyle and Harrington) coming back.

So, if I had to handicap it right now, I think Dallas is in the lead, with the Lakers second (by desperately concocting some 3-way involving Lamar), and Phoenix and Chicago possibilities only if both the right players are offered AND their owners are more spendthrift than expected. Golden St would move up if they figure out some way to get some expiring contracts. Most likely, I suspect: Kevin McHale is his usual incompetent self, and KG begins the season as a Timberwolf.