Sunday, September 23, 2007

Offense spreading?

College football is back, and quite exciting too - perhaps in part because scores seem to be on the rise; Oklahoma wins and averages 63 a game (!), and Louisville has perhaps the best passing QB in the land in Brian Brohm, throwing for 555 yards and 4 TDs in his last game - and losing. The famed 'black shirt' defense of Nebraska gave up 40+ for the second game in a row, the first time so doing in what seems like forever - and to Ball State! Even poor old Notre Dame, an offensive joke this season, scored two offensive TDs - and was still blown out, as its defense joined the crowd of those allowing over 30 points.

Recent years have shown the SEC as the best conference (followed by the Pac 10 - the Big 10 is now vastly overrated, and the Big 12 is top-heavy), and the big disparity with everyone else is on defense; the SEC annually has several teams in the top 20 on defense in raw stats, and even more if you adjust for strength of schedule.

One reason for the offensive explosion and SEC defensive dominance: the spread of the the spread offense, as popularized by Urban Meyer at Utah/ Florida and now many others. It makes team speed on defense more important than ever - and more particularly, skill in pass coverage and speed rushers.

The spread carves up zone defenses (played by slower, bigger defenses) by spreading them out and working the seams, and typically only the SEC (and a few other programs, like USC, Oklahoma or Texas) has the kind of athletes that can play effective man coverage on defense and also have front 4s that can rush the passer without blitzing. The return of the running QB (which gives the running game an option look, and/or an extra blocker) also helps offensive production a lot. Mike Vick would've accomplished much the same in the NFL, if he could've 1st, passed accurately, and 2nd, stayed out of trouble. But it will come, I expect. Be prepared for Pat White, Tim Tebow, Jake Locker and their ilk to be both running and passing in the NFL in a few years, revolutionizing the pro game as well.

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