NBA predictions 2010 - Eastern conference

NBA predictions 2009-2010
NBA preseason predictions (well; 80-game predictions- no one’s played more than 2 so far…):
Eastern Conference (ranked by playoff seed):
TEAM … PROJECTED RECORD … PROJECTED DIV. FINISH

1. Orlando Magic 60-22 1st in Southeast
They lose two key contributors, Hedo Turkoglu or Courtney Lee, and also Rafer Alston, who played better than expected as a fill-in PG. But Vinsanity has gone from overrated to severely underrated and is almost certain to be an upgrade on Turkoglu, who was a terrible defender and a mediocre marksman. R. Lewis may be due to get hurt/ regress, but two good seasons in a row and vastly improved defense impress. J. Nelson took a major step forward at PG before he got hurt, and apparently will be all the way back. Pietrus/ Redick should manage at 2-guard, or they can go big and play Vince there, Lewis at 3, and Bass/ Gortat at 4. But more than anything, D. Howard is a beast - the closest thing to vintage Shaq - and either he or LeBron will be MVP. They should edge out Boston for the top seed.
2. Boston Celtics 58-24 1st in Atlantic
The Big 3 are ever older, but the rest of the team is even better; Rondo continues to improve, assuming negotiations and team relationships don’t torment his fragile psyche. Kendrick Perkins is a defensive beast who fortunately doesn’t need to score. And adding Sheed makes their defense even awesome-er, assuming they get a more consistent effort out of him than the going-nowhere Pistons of last season did. Marquis Daniels should help their guard depth, and pairs up well with Eddie House in switching assignments from offense to defense. Only injuries, to KG, but also to Ray Allen or especially Rondo (perhaps their best, and least replaceable, player), appear possible to submarine things. The battle with Orlando and Cleveland for best in the East should be quite a battle royal.
3. Cleveland Cavaliers 55-27 1st in Central
Anthony Parker is a nice role player, and LeBron will start his second would-be MVP campaign with an improved jumper, but in re-fighting the last war (the playoff loss to Orlando amid Dwight Howard’s detonation of their D) by acquiring Shaq, they initially will likely disrupt the offensive and defensive rotations that resulted in 66 wins last year. Shaq changes their offense in ways better and worse (still a low-post terror, but he’s also a turnover machine and needs to be surrounded by capable passers and jumpshooters), and is notoriously inconsistent in his defensive effort. Add to that that Mo Williams will almost certainly regress, Varejao is a bad offensive match with Shaq up front (in that neither can hit a jumper, so teams can zone them; teams that play more than one person at a time who cannot hit a jump shot tend to have poor offensive efficiency), and the contract years / jealousy that having 2 supernova personalities makes the other 10 players resentful, in a way just one doesn’t… to say nothing of Delonte West’s troubles. So there will be some growing/ adapting pains. But come the playoffs…
4. Atlanta Hawks 47-35 2nd in Southeast
Last year I, unlike most prognosticators, correctly picked them fourth in the East - most people had them missing the playoffs. They should slightly improve this year, but the gap is far too large to catch any of the East’s top 3. Their bench is still iffy, with a rookie and/or ballhog Jamal Crawford as backup guards, but Mo Evans, Joe Smith and Zaza Pachulia are nice backups up front, and the starters (except for Mike Bibby) remain young and getting better, not worse. If Bibby gets hurt, or loses his offensive efficiency while continuing his horrid defense, things could fall apart; but most likely the Hawks will enjoy another solid season and a good shot at making it to the second round. The conference finals, though, will have to wait.
5. Toronto Raptors 46-36 2nd in Atlantic
They have taken a page from the Euro/ D’Antoni playbook and have a team full of ballhandlers and shooters, with suspect defense. Chris Bosh has struck me as overrated, but has every incentive to play his best in a contract year. Bargnani has improved, Turko should fit in well on offense, but Jose Calderon remains the key – he must stay healthy and distribute well. Jarrett Jack was a nice pick-up, but he’s probably better playing 2-guard alongside Calderon than being a fulltime distributor. The offensive firepower should usually overwhelm the defensive lapses and make them a solid playoff team.
6. Philadelphia 76ers 44-38 3rd in Atlantic
An enigma. How much does Elton Brand have left? Two years after a major Achilles injury, with last year lost to an unrelated injury; his age alone guarantees the 76ers won’t be getting the near-MVP Elton Brand of a few years back – 18 and 8 seems more like the upper limit, rather than 24 and 10. They continue to lack accurate 3-point shooters, increasingly a liability in the ever more sophisticated defensive era played now. Lou Williams is a talented driver in the Monta Ellis mold, but can he really play PG, even in a Princeton offense? Relatedly, how much will they miss Andre Miller? (On defense, probably not at all). And how good is Iguodala really - are his tremendous plus-minus numbers a mirage, or testament to him being a hidden gem? The bench remains ugly (except for Mareese Speights) if anyone important gets hurt.

7. Miami Heat 43-39 3rd in Southeast
Again, the Heat are an tough to predict this year, with the health of one Dwayne Wade the most crucial variable, but the maturity and emergence of Michael Beasley and PG Mario Chalmers running close behind, and the health of J. O’Neal following close - Udonis Haslem remains a fine role player who’s overmatched playing center. Their bench is laughable. If Wade stays healthy and the rest of the variables go well, they might even slightly outstrip this prediction; but if even a few things go wrong, I seriously doubt they make the playoffs.

8. Detroit Pistons 42-40 2nd in Central
Now that the AI nightmare is over, Dumars attempts to reinvigorate the franchise and arrest the slow decline of their non-Tayshaun starters by letting Sheed go and spending their cap room on Villanueva, a sweet shooting, no D ‘stretch 4’, and the ‘fire when ready or unready’ Ben Gordon. Rip Hamilton barely fits here, and that’s not even considering the fact that Stuckey is a 2 masquerading as a 1, and Will Bynum could be their best guard and barely see the court. The frontcourt defense will be far worse than before (even with the return of Ben Wallace’s semi-corpse), and they could easily fall out of the playoffs to one of the teams immediately below. But at least they should score more and be more entertaining to watch.
----out of playoffs:
9. Washington Wizards 39-43 4th in Southeast
Arenas is back and playing team ball, and Caron Butler continues to be an excellent swingman. But Jamison is already hurt, and the parade of injured figures to continue. They likely will outscore a number of teams and be in the playoff race the first half of the season, then slowly fade.
10. Chicago Bulls 39-43 3rd in Central
Del Negro still has a lot to learn as a coach, much like his young team. Derrick Rose may score in the 20s, but until he learns to distribute and defend better, his value will be far less than his rep. Noah and Thomas continue to tantalize, but remain problematic when playing together, as neither can hit a J (see Cleveland comment above). Luol Deng’s health is huge, but I can’t shake the feeling he peaked a couple years ago, despite his relative youth. Hinrich is a nice piece but seems better suited as a 3rd guard on a contender; I still see a trade as a real possibility for both he and Brad Miller, assuming the Bulls are not solidly in the playoffs come the trade deadline. I wonder if Cleveland would give up Z (and his expiring contract) and Gibson for them both…
11. Indiana Pacers 38-44 4th in Central
The Pacers still have a slow roster with trouble defending and with turnovers; TJ Ford will help for the 30-50 games he’s healthy, but… the backup PG is a problem with Jack leaving. Dunleavy’s health and shot are both in question, and Dahntay Jones is not a solution for what ails them. Danny Granger remains the only player who’s both reasonably young and good and improving, and his defense needs work. I like Jim O’Brien, and Indy will be competitive most nights, but they still look like a mediocre team that’s not quite good enough.
12. Charlotte Bobcats 35-47 5th in Southeast
A bizarre squad, defensively ept and offensively inept; Tyson Chandler is a defensive force when healthy, but his only offensive move was dunking a perfect pass from CP3 on a pick and roll. They STILL don’t know who their PG is, GWallace is a walking advertisement for the need for NBA players to wear headgear against concussions, and it’s not clear anyone on the team can consistently hit a jumper. Look for lots of 77-65 losses.
13. New York Knicks 33-49 4th in Atlantic
D’Antoni can’t solve everything, especially if almost all your players know that they’re only there for this season, and management wants the two vets with longer contracts to be gone for cap room, so they all are playing selfishly for their next contract and team. Nate Robinson may be the worst offender, but practically everyone on the team will be less invested in team than personal success. Although David Lee is a great fit for D’Antoni’s system, his D was sorry last year and he can’t shoot; the guards remain subpar, the defense even more so, and even a slimmed down Eddy Curry or a healthy Jared Jeffries have no real role in a D’Antoni offense. Gallinari may be the only keeper, and his health remains a huge question mark. Next summer, the Knicks face the reality of the tendency of major free agents to stay with their current teams, so like previous desperate suitors, they look likely to throw big money at middling players, which may simply continue Knick disappointment indefinitely.

14. New Jersey Nets 30-52 5th in Atlantic
The good: Devin Harris and Courtney Lee make a decent backcourt, and Lopez has promise as a scoring big man. The bad: most everything else. Yi (the bust) will play rotation minutes and continue to kill them, and the other forwards don’t offer much of an alternative. Like the Knicks, the team seems to be more focused on summer 2010 than this season, with the infusion of Russian oligarch money making somewhat more plausible the hoped-for LeBron and Brooklyn sightings. I’d pick them lower, but the coach works hard and the last team looks truly dysfunctional.
15. Milwaukee Bucks 25-57 5th in Central
Whoa. Sessions comes out of nowhere to become a decent PG, but instead of paying him, he and Villanueva leave and instead you pay - Ersan Ilyasova? Carlos Delfino? What the hell is going on out there? Skiles screams at teams until they defend, and it worked to a degree last year; but the screaming gradually quits working and makes a team quit on its coach. I wouldn’t be surprised to see him gone by midseason. Bogut is decent, and Redd can hit 3s (but can’t defend or pass). That’s the best you can say. Pain awaits.

Playoffs: Orlando, Boston, Cleveland and Atlanta win the first round. Orlando and Cleveland win the second round (as KG limps and the Cavs hit their stride), and in a seven game masterpiece, King LeBron beats the defending Eastern conference champs from Orlando in the East finals.

Coming next: Western conference and playoofs, MVP and other awards...