NBA picks: Western Conference, playoffs, MVP/ ROY

Still 80 game projections, as until tonight no one has yet played their 3rd game:

Western Conference (ranked by playoff seed):
TEAM PROJECTED RECORD PROJECTED DIV. FINISH
1. Los Angeles Lakers 61-21 1st in Pacific
The Lakers have quality depth as well as 4 possible All-Stars as starters. Plus-minus indicates Lamar Odom may have been the team’s best or second-best player (behind Pau) last season, but he still comes off the bench; Kobe’s game has matured and he evinces a greater willingness to defer and defend, instead of constantly being a ballhog. Chemistry and injuries are their only possible downfalls; Pau Gasol is already hurt, Bynum’s health is always an issue, Ron Artest has slowed down, and no one really knows how he will respond to being the 4th or even 5th option - or how a Hollywood lifestyle may affect him. And Kobe may break eventually from heavy use. PG is the only positional question mark; Derek Fisher has slowed and his shot has degenerated as well, and Jordan Farmar and Shannon Brown show glimpses of promise, but have yet to demonstrate consistent production. Even if Fisher falls off a cliff and the youngsters still aren’t ready for prime time, and even if there are some injuries, it’s hard to see this team winning less than 50-some games - in a near-worst case scenario. But I think 70 is out of reach, despite what some are saying.

2. San Antonio Spurs 54-28 1st in Southwest
The Spurs had one of the best offseason makeovers, as a very old team exchanged some of its ancient parts (Bowen, Oberto, Thomas) for relatively young blood in R. Jefferson, who gives them much needed quickness on the wings. They picked up McDyess and Dejuan Blair to help TD up front, and Tony Parker continues to be one of the most lethal offensive PGs in the league. The key issue, as has been typical lately, is the health of Ginobili. Fully healthy, he turns this otherwise merely good team into a title contender. So the real issue for the postseason is - how close to 100% will he be? Coach Pop has a history of managing minutes and being willing to lose regular season games for the greater good of playoff health, so I don’t expect a serious challenge to the Lakers for the top seed out West.

3. Portland Trail Blazers 52-30 1st in Northwest
Loaded and young. It’s a nice combination. The problem: it’s still unclear how many (if any) of their guys will turn into long-term stars instead of solid role players; only one is there yet - Brandon Roy - and he may have a short shelf life as a top-20 player; worries about the health of his knees and hence his longevity as a top-flight player are why he dropped as far in the draft as he did. LaMarcus Aldridge is good; but will he take the next step to all-star status? Then there’s the tantalizing promise of Greg Oden - talented, but as yet still hasn’t outplayed journeyman Joel Pryzbilla. The guards are numerous but likewise still no clear standouts; Andre Miller may not be any better than Steve Blake (esp. with defense taken into account), and Rudy Fernandez, Batum, Webster, Outlaw - all nice players, but… The Knicks a few years ago, under Isiah Thomas, began amassing a roster full of decent players but no stars; we see how well that turned out. At some point I think GM Pritchard will have to take a chance and swing a risky big trade of several of his youngsters for a major piece if he wants this team to move into title contender status. Perhaps a major 2010 free agent who wants to leave his team could do a sign and trade so his team gets something back - LeBron, Nike HQ is near Portland…

4. Denver 51-31 2nd in Northwest
Their defense continues to be excellent but disguised by their pace, with Nene being one of the most underrated players in the league, and K-Mart returning to star form. But can Nene and K-Mart stay healthy? The Birdman was a nice find as a backup, but it’s obviously risky to depend on him, and who is the 4th big? Melo’s game matured considerably last year, as he played a little more D, moving from abysmal to merely bad there, and exercised much better shot selection and passing. Funny how much of that happened after Billups arrived and AI left town. PG got a nice depth boost with Ty Lawson being drafted to back up Billups; they might even play together some, but the worry is that Billups will begin to slip and Lawson might actually be better by the end of the season - most PGs don’t age well. Other depth remains iffy, but this is clearly a good team, if fragile; but they still look a little short of the elite.

5. Utah Jazz 49-33 3rd in Northwest
Kirilenko has long hair and perhaps some peace with his role and game, and their re-signed PF combo is terrific, as is the Okur/ Fesenko international combo at center, at least on offense. Ronnie Brewer is turning into a stud, but needs a jumper; Korver gives them much needed shooting, but can’t play D. Combine Brewer and Korver’s strengths and you’d have a first-team all-star - but that’s not the way it works. Deron Williams was great the second half last year, after he recovered from his injury; he still looks like he could become a superstar, the second best PG in the league. Defensive intensity, injuries, and uncertainty over Boozer’s contract/ trade status look like the primary threats, but like Denver and Portland immediately above, this is clearly a good team that might need a trade to become one of the elite.

6. Dallas Mavericks 45-37 2nd in Southwest
Dirk remains a stud scorer and good rebounder, and JKidd showed he can still assist with the best, even if his D has slipped a lot - there’s no way he should guard quick 1s any more. JT can still fill it up off the pine, and Josh Howard needs to come back as soon as possible to solve their wing rotation issues. A flyer on Shawn Marion seems a worthwhile risk, but does he really have any chance of returning to his glory Phoenix-level days? And if he’s mediocre and comes off the bench (or simply doesn’t get many touches), will his attitude negatively affect the rest of the team? Rick Carlisle is an excellent coach, but appears to gradually wear out his welcome - when will that happen in Big D? They are old and likely inconsistent, and the long season may not be kind; they still look like an almost-sure playoff participant to me, but remain unlikely to advance to the second round.

7. Houston Rockets 43-39 3rd in Southwest
Adelman’s been a great regular season coach throughout his long career, and despite losing Yao for the season and TMc’s uncertainty in both when and how well he’ll come back, I see them sneaking into the playoffs. Their midget frontcourt may be easily shot over, but not as easily overpowered; and guaranteed is that they’ll scrap and do the little things. And Scola is a really nice player, who is used to being the primary frontcourt scorer in high-level international play for years. PG could still be an issue, but Aaron Brooks will get to try to build on his playoff run of nice performances, and Lowry’s a reasonable backup, who fits into the team ethos by being a scrapper. Ariza and Battier on the wings is another nice combo, with exquisite defense - but can they score enough points? That’s really the question for both them and the team as a whole. I think the mass of prognosticators writing them off and out of the playoffs are simply wrong; ask the world champion Lakers about how they play, even without Yao or TMc.

8. New Orleans Hornets 42-40 4th in Southwest
Chris Paul is an offensive juggernaut and possibly deserves the MVP, and David West continues to be an underappreciated scorer and force. Emeka Okafor was a defensible pick-up in trade, as his stilted offense is still more than Tyson Chandler brought, even if he’s not quite the shotblocker. James Posey and Julian Wright remain excellent role players; but Peja is looking cooked, they collectively quit (except for CP3) in the playoffs, and their defense looks like it’s only getting worse. Worse, I get the feeling they hate Byron Scott, who might be fired shockingly early this year if they’re losing and CP3 makes the ownership coose between him and Scott. I can’t shake the feeling they should blow things up and re-create the team with youngsters who fit better around CP3, or else deal him for youngsters and draft picks and start all over; that they traded one of the few teammates he had chemistry with (Chandler) is a bad sign.

----out of playoffs:
9. Phoenix Suns 40-42 2nd in Pacific
The last stand of Nash, Hill, Stoudamire, et al. Dealing Shaq for nothing was an admission they’re going nowhere, even if they’re going there fast. They still have no credible backup for Nash, and an injury to Steve would quickly put them into a precipitous free fall - and he’s OLD - as is the elderly gentlemen playing 3, the artist formerly known as Grant Hill. (I understand he used to be a dynamic scorer and driver, back in the previous millennium). Amare looks like a shell of his old self, and is also playing for a contract, which will likely only exacerbate his selfishness. Channing Frye was released from Portland, unable to make it as even a 4th string center there; he starts for Phoenix. At 2, JRich looked a surprisingly (to me, anyway) bad fit for this style last year, and Sarver’s penury means Barbosa is the only decent bench player. So despite the appeal of their style, mediocrity looks like the best that can be hoped for, as they sprint into the sunset in 7 seconds or less.

10. Golden State Warriors 37-45 3rd in Pacific
Dysfunction, meet your team. Who actually wants to be there? Not former captain Stephen Jackson, not disgruntled and out of position PG Monta Ellis, not wunderkind but doghoused Anthony Randolph, and not even coach Nellie, it seems. Biedrins may have plateaued (and apparently is trade bait), B. Wright is hurt, Stephen Curry and Corey Maggette duplicate others, and no one wants to distribute or play D - they just all want to shoot. Despite all the offensive talent, it looks another long year in the Bay Area.

11. Los Angeles Clippers 32-50 4th in Pacific
The Clips - are they truly cursed? Fans thought definitely not this past summer, when insane ownership at Memphis took bad boy Randolph off their hands, and they won the lottery and got Blake Griffin, who profiles to me as another Buck Williams/ Al Horford/ Dennis Rodman high energy PF, but one unlikely to ever average 20 ppg - perhaps not even 15. But… Griffin gets hurt at the end of preseason and will miss 2 months, Baron Davis apparently still can’t get along with Coach Dunleavy and may be hurt or simply fading fast, and Al Thornton may be the worst starting 3 in the league. The frontcourt is stacked, probably too much so: Kaman and Camby and new addition, bruiser Craig Smith, make Griffin probably only the 4th best big on his return. I’m still not sure that Camby doesn’t remain furious at being dealt to the Clips, and both he and Baron Davis strike me as high probability mailer-inners if they remain after the trade deadline with the playoffs are seen to be a hopeless dream. They remain poor defenders, particularly on the wings, and it only seems a matter of time until last year’s discord between Dunleavy and most of the team resurfaces. This team desperately needs a new coach and a deal of frontcourt depth for a starting 3, but with Dunleavy’s contract and a cheapskate owner, you can forget it.

12. OKC Thunder 29-53 4th in Northwest
They hope their young bigs continue to develop into players rather than busts – Nick Collison looks like a journeyman, and he is their best defender. Jeff Green is a tweener F out of place trying to guard 3s, which makes keeping permanent his move to 4 and Durant’s to 3 an imperative, although they both will be physically overpowered easily by more mature players. Durant is the key to the team: despite dialing it up to 25 ppg, he again posted a near league-worst plus-minus, due to abysmal D and (intentionally or not) making his teammates play far worse on offense with him, as they subjugate their games to try to feed The Man. The hope is that he will follow the Carmelo Anthony path, from no-D overrated youngster who averages 28 to team player who averages 22 and actually helps rather than hurts his team. The NBA culture makes it difficult for prodigiously talented scorers to learn this lesson, as the reward system is out of whack with what actually helps teams win; players like Glenn Robinson never got it, and it took Kobe 10 years (and remains a work in progress there). The good news is that reports on the kid’s mindset indicate he’s willing to learn, but anecdotes are a poor substitute for actual data. The rest of the team features PG Westbrook, a talented sort who, IF he masters the outside shot, position defense, and the nuances of running an offense, could become an elite player - but that’s a LOT of IFs. The there’s Krstic the C, talented but still not the player he was pre-injury, and hence perhaps permanently slowed to a facsimile of late-career Vlade Divac. The good news for the future: youth likely to improve, more of a bench that most bad teams, lots of cap room, and their sellout home crowds mean they will get enough of a goose there (especially against road-weary teams in mid-winter) that they will easily win a few more games than the sad sack teams below:

13. Minnesota Timberwolves 28-54 5th in Northwest
The Wolves went 32-50 three years ago with Garnett, and finally realized they had to blow things up. Year 3 shows little progress but some cause for hope. They have an offensively gifted but defensively lacking frontcourt duo of Kevin Love and Al Jefferson, but health for them both (Love’s already hurt) is key, as the reserves aren’t pretty. They intelligently gave up on Foye and Mike Miller, but still need legit players at both guard spots and defensive help – perhaps Corey Brewer can become a stopper, but he’s another returning from injury case. Rookie Jonny Flynn and intelligent signee Ramon Sessions will man the point, but they foolishly drafted Rubio instead of using the pick for more help. At least they have some hope for the future – but for the time being, especially with a porous defense, they will continue to suck. But not as much as the last two:

14. Sacramento Kings 24-58 5th in Pacific
The Kings have a good offensive player – Kevin Martin – and Tyreke Evans will probably lead all rookies in scoring, as a huge, physical guard that will start and have license to shoot at will, and has a slashing game that should generate lots of foul shots, even as a rook. But he’ll be lucky to shoot over 40%, and the team is VERY young; the Thompson and Hawes have some promise but still look at least a couple of years of development away from being legit NBA starters, and the bench is pathetic, as usual for bad teams. They at least realized they should be building for the future by dealing Brad Miller to open up PT for Spencer Hawes et al.; now they should continue that realization by dealing Nocioni for more young pieces or draft picks.

15. Memphis Grizzlies 20-62 5th in Southwest
Gasol the Younger can bang, Rudy Gay can score and sky (and watch his man go by), and OJ Mayo is hyped - ball skills, ability to get off his shot, strength, and a little athleticism - and no clue as to how to make his teammates better; he reminded me, as a rookie, of what a selfish Kobe would look like if he’s still playing at 40. The young PG Conley has some promise, but it remains as yet unfulfilled, and he still has trouble with hitting 3s; and in the most bizarre move, they brought into a group of impressionable youngsters two of the worst reps in the league, Z-Bo and AI, black holes on offense, matador defenders, and difficult (to put it mildly) off-court. It’s not clear anyone but the PG and the center (Gasol) will ever pass the ball! They will almost assuredly play no defense, they remain in a brutal division, and look like the worst team in the league.



Playoffs: Lakers, Spurs, Portland and Denver all defend home court in the first round. In the second, the Lakers again overwhelm Denver as Artest clamps down on Melo, and Portland’s young legs defeat a Spurs team that likely has at least one of TP, TD, and Manu hurt. In the West finals, the Lakers cruise past a young Blazers squad, as Gasol and Bynum score easily and often inside and Oden/ Pryzbilla/ Aldridge don’t.

Finals: The hype will say Kobe vs LeBron – although it will be Artest guarding the King and shutting him down, as the Lakers win a second straight title.

Regular season: MVP – Dwight Howard. ROY- Blake Griffin can’t overcome missing 20 games and the Clipper froncourt depth; Tyreke Evans will lead the rooks in scoring, but at a low pct for a terrible team; so my surprise pick is Ty Lawson, who I think may be starting for a solid playoff team by the end of the season!