Saturday, May 15, 2010

LeBron's future and NBA conference finals picks

As the playoffs started, I thought the NBA Finals would be Cavs-Suns, with the Cavs overwhelming the Magic in the Eastern finals and the Suns taking out the Lakers. Well, I have 3 of 4 correct.... but everyone else is discussing the one I (and most people) had wrong, as LeBron's Cavs are out and his free agency rumors are rampant. I suspect that LeBron will leave unless somehow the Cavs can make a dramatic acquisition to shore up the two spots they obviously have defensive/ offensive problems, PG and C. The only plausible deal that addresses what they need pre-draft and pre-free agency would be to deal Varejao and Hickson (the only two players with any desirability to other teams) along with Mo Williams and cap filler (probably J. Moon)to the Clippers for Kaman and Baron Davis. The Clippers would do it because their m.o. is to trade older expensive players for younger, cheaper ones, and a rotation of Blake Grffin and Eric Gordon and DeAndre Jordan plus the newcomers could actually have a nice future. The Cavs, meanwhile, could have a nice 7-man rotation of Kaman, Jamison, LeBron, Parker, and Davis as starters, with Delonte West and possibly a re-signed Shaq or Z off the bench. Of course, if LeBron would re-sign for this, one might wonder why wouldn't he just go sign with the Clippers....

Anyway, my picks: I think Bynum is hurting and will be exposed against the Suns tendency to play a 5 who moves a lot, even beyond the 3-pt line (Frye), and Phil Jax will end up going with Gasol and Odom as his primary frontcourt. That said, I think Nash vs Fisher is the key to the series; and I'm afraid this will be Derek's last rodeo, as Nash abuses his slowed defensive positions and Derek cannot make enough shots to force Nash to stay home on defense. With the series on the line, Kobe and his busted fingers will shoot 7 for 28 and the Suns will prevail in 6 games.

In the East, Orlando looks like an unstoppable juggernaut, as lost in the dismissal of the Hawks as gaggers was just how well Orlando played. Boston will face a far better coach this round, and Dwight Howard is the matchup problem Shaquille O'Neal has only a dim memory of being. Orlando in 5.

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