Biological doomsday

The odds of the extinction of the human race occurring because of biological warfare (or accident) grow each and every day. Why? Because research and development of potentially lethal viral and bacterial pathogens continues, and the political and social conditions contributing to their release get worse and worse, not better.

Consider the fall of 2001; not long after the terror attacks of 9/11, there were the anthrax mailings that nearly paralyzed the postal system and killed a few people. The FBI investigated, they terrorized a scientist, Stephen Hatfill, who worked for USAMRIID (in Fort Detrick, Maryland) on circumstantial evidence, and even drained a pond in which he was alleged to have stashed the evidence in the end, and found ... nothing. In the end, they arrested... no one.

Why? Some conspiracy theorists believe it is because the anthrax terrorist could not be prosecuted, because the terrorist was a government official with evidence of US violations of the 1972 Convention on Biological Weapons, which states that it is illegal to "develop, produce, stockpile or otherwise acquire" such weapons.

Some of the alleged violations include the very weaponized anthrax used in the 2001 attacks, which were identical to a military grade and may have violated the biological weapons convention. Other alleged violations include the army's

"plan to test live microbes in "aerosol chambers" at the Edgewood Chemical Biological Center, also in Maryland. So does its development of a genetically modified fungus for attacking coca crops in Colombia, and GM bacteria for destroying materials belonging to enemy forces."

The upshot - either the US military, or some other government organization, continues to carry out biological warfare research, on organisms with potentially massive lethality. Compare that to known Soviet violations - in 1992 Russia made an official declaration of its past biological weapon activities, including work was done at Sverdlovsk (now Ekaterinburg) and other cities on mass production and dispersion as a weapon of biological agents. At the Sverdlovsk facility, the lab screwed up containment of their weaponized anthrax in April, 1979, with a result of (admitted) deaths of nearly 70 people downwind, and dead sheep for a distance of 50 kilometers. And non-state terror groups are willing to attempt biological warfare as well; Aum Shinrikyo wished to do so, but found sarin gas easier to use.

Now, with al-Qaeda and other terror groups discovering the power of asymmetric warfare, it seems only a matter of time until a member of such a group finds that biological warfare is one of the easiest means of attaining their aims. The technology for doing so becomes cheaper and more accessible all the time, and all that would be needed is someone with the appropriate training. And we know al-Qaeda can recruit doctors, so recruiting a research virologist shouldn't be much harder.

Making things worse for both state and non-state actors is the rise of genetic medicine made possible by the Human Genome Project. Before long it may be possible to genetically engineer pathogens that attack only certain genomes - making ethnic/ genetic 'cleansing' all the more plausible. But a counterattack, or a mutation, could make such an organism lethal not only to one's enemies, but one's own tribe/ oneself. And, through malice aforethought or accident, it seems inevitable that, if research on highly contagious and lethal organisms continues, it will eventually be let out. A bioweapons doomsday is extraordinarily plausible; to stop it will require overwhelming surveillance and/or ethical controls on primary research. I rank it second only to nanotechnology as an existential risk to humankind.

Have a great day!