Ranking NL offenses by road scoring

Perceptions in baseball are funny things; pundits on Baseball Tonight look at the Padres and see their pitching is ranked first in the league, but their offense is near the bottom, and say that the Pads need offensive help, and their great pitching is the key to what winning they do. Trades are endlessly discussed to remedy these perceived shortcomings, as the talking heads assert the Pads need to pick up a hitter, whereas the young Diamondback offense is coming along, and they need more pitching to stay in first.

The pundits seem to be oblivious to park effects, alas. As a result, most of what they say is stupid, and even flat out wrong. The best way to show this is to find a way to eliminate park effects - there are a number, but the simplest quick one is simply to look at road scoring. Park effects are almost entirely washed out over the course of a season on the road, so much fairer comparisons of team strengths and weaknesses can be gleaned from such data.

So without further ado, the NL team road scoring, in runs per game, through August 9:
(Gaps are an attempt to indicate the relative differences between teams – the top 2 are much better than #3, which is much better than #4. But #s 9-11 could easily change in a single game, they’re so close).

1 Philadelphia 5.39

2 Atlanta 5.25


3 NY Mets 5.03


4 Florida 4.79

5 San Diego 4.71


6 Milwaukee 4.52

7 Colorado 4.46

8 Cincinnati 4.43

9 LA Dodgers 4.39
10 Houston 4.38
11 St. Louis 4.38

12 Chicago Cubs 4.35

13 San Francisco 4.28


14 Pittsburgh 4.05

15 Washington 3.95

16 Arizona 3.83

Lessons: Arizona looks like a decent offense only because of their home park, which is a hitter’s paradise; they actually have the worst offense in the league, but (contrary to reputation) the best pitching in the division, and Brandon Webb is making a persuasive Cy Young case. They need help with hitting, not pitching, to stay in first!

Conversely, the Padres actually have a solid offense, 5th in the league; Petco serves to disguise just how good their offense is (and likewise makes their pitching appear much better than it actually is). They may regret trading away part of their bullpen in Scott Linebrink, perhaps mistakenly believing their pitching is better than it actually is.

To a lesser extent, the same overvaluing of their pitching is true of the Giants and Dodgers – but the Dodger offense truly has become woeful as well, and trading Betemit and keeping Nomar at 3b may keep them out of a playoff berth.

On the other hand, the top 4 offenses are all in the NL East! Again, this is disguised by Shea Stadium and Dolphins Stadium being severe pitcher’s parks, and Turner Field being mildly so, but these offenses can rock! The addition of Teixiera to the Braves and the loss of Utley by the Phils may presage a change in the top 2 spots. Now, if Atlanta could only find some bullpen help, they could easily be the favorite to win the East title yet again…

And Milwaukee is (slightly) the best of a sad bunch in the Central. But despite ROY Ryan Braun, they are trending the wrong way. But the Cubs lost Soriano, and the Cards offense has sunk to Astros level - yikes! Jim Edmonds is about done, and Scott Rolen looks unlikely to ever return to all-star status. (But at least Pujols is heating up, Cards fans - behold the next Stan Musial). Nonetheless, the Central remains a sea of mediocrity or worse - and I still maintain that 6 teams from the NL East and West will have a record at least as good as the Central winner. (Not that that will stop them from perhaps winning the World Series, as the 2006 champion Cardinals can attest!)