Bombing Iran?

Given the complete and utter debacle in Iraq - a fine book about it was aptly titled Fiasco - it beggars the imagination that we are actively planning a massive bombing attack on Iran that would (in theory) reduce the entire Iranian military apparatus to rubble in three days.

Verily, though, it appears we are; but surely we are leaking word of this proposed attack as a feint, a bluff, a threat of the stick in order to get Iran back to the carrots of the negotiating table, and get the IAEA inspectors back to their nuclear plants and achieve a diplomatic solution, right?

If some of those at the front lines are reading their tea leaves correctly (and telling the truth), then no - it's no feint; it's all too real, and we are at a stage much like Iraq in early 2003, in which the military decision has already been made, and the only question is the exact timing. According to this diary, all the "Air Operation Planning and Asset Tasking" have already been completed - all the targets inside Iran have been carefully selected, given a priority, and even the specific aircraft, bases, carriers, missile cruisers and so on have already been assigned their missions. The only query left - when does it begin?

The diary notes that officers and senior commanders who raised doubts about striking Iran have recently all been replaced. I am wary of trusting anonymously sourced testimonials from frontline military sources on future plans, but the source here sounds all too believable, and even admits she could be compromising a secret attack - but doesn't care, as she senses it is morally questionable, contrasting it to morally clear missions in Kosovo or helping tsunami victims.

If this is all a bluff, Bush is a better poker player than I think. So, I suspect it is not a bluff. Instead, look at where things are headed: Benjamin Netanyahu, a prominent Israeli politician who has repeatedly compared Iran's President Ahmadinejad to Hitler in 1938 (and helped persuade fundamentalist Christians that the US would be nuked right after Israel), has recently and easily won the race to lead Israel's hardline Likud Party, making him the favorite to become the new Israeli prime minister.

The result: the Israeli military now has a new spy satellite specifically designed to track the Iranian nuclear program, and the combination of Netanyahu's popularity and the apparent decision of the US to bomb has the current prime minister, Ehud Olmert doing - guess what? Well, in an article in Germany's Bild newspaper, Olmert compared Iran's president with Adolf Hitler for calling for Israel's destruction! Hmmm - I sense a rhetorical trend, and to Israeli ears, there's only one thing to do to someone who threatens a new Holocaust - and it's not containment or negotiations.

The context makes it even clearer: the remarks were published a day after the U.N. nuclear watchdog said Iran had failed to observe a deadline for halting uranium enrichment activity. And that's not all: Olmert went on to say:

"The West - above all under the leadership of the United States - will ensure that Iran under no circumstances comes to possess unconventional weapons.The president of the United States is a very brave man who understands that very well."

Putting 2 and 2 together, I'm guessing it is too late for Iran to have a peaceful end to its uranium enrichment activity. The Israelis now even have a new spy satellite that will help the American bombers do their jobs - and it just became operational. I'm guessing we will have a three-day war in Iran before the New Year - and no one knows what the terrible fallout of that will be. Only that it will take Iraq off the lead on the news!