Saturday, June 16, 2007

The 2001 draft in hindsight

You wondered, I analyze - 2001 draft – 20/20 hindsight – 1st round, plus those who made it from 2nd round and undrafted

As you’ll see, I could only find 26 players even worthy of drafting. (And 2 of them weren’t!). And the best of them all is a Spur… no wonder they win titles.
Now, on to the opinions:

1 Kwame Brown (C)
United States
Washington Wizards
Glynn Academy High School (Brunswick, GA)

Looks like he will be a legit backup/ marginal starting 5, perhaps better. Very athletic, solid post D, more than occasional brain cramps, lacking in offensive skill. Should have went: 12

2 Tyson Chandler (PF)
United States
Los Angeles Clippers (traded to Chicago)
Dominguez HS (Compton, CA)

See Kwame, but without the brain cramps, but more injury-prone. Good rebounder. But of course, his trade for EB was the highlight of Baylor’s GMship (and a lowlight of Krause’s). Should have went: 9

3 Pau Gasol (PF)
Spain
Atlanta Hawks (traded to Vancouver for Shareef Abdur-Rahim)
FC Barcelona (Spain)

Far more offensive (and far less defensive) skill than previous 2. Doesn’t appear to give consistent effort, but perhaps function of bad team. One of many bad Hawks moves under current management was this trade. Should have went: right where he did, 3

4 Eddy Curry (C)
United States
Chicago Bulls
Thornwood HS (South Holland, IL)

See Gasol, but add in injury prone and underachieving. Should have went: 15

5 Jason Richardson (SG)
United States
Golden State Warriors
Michigan State

Has finally developed a jumpshot, but simultaneously became more injury-prone and lost some of his vertical. Solid player, but never superstar some imagined. Should have went: 6

6 Shane Battier (F/G)
United States
Vancouver Grizzlies
Duke

Winner, glue guy, great help D, ok 3-pt shot, no quickness or skill off the dribble. Epitome of role player on good team – cf Bruce Bowen. Should have went: 5


7 Eddie Griffin (F)
United States
New Jersey Nets (traded to Houston)
Seton Hall

Why teams need psych screening 101. NJ pulls a heist in trading this pick for 3 later ones, as I saw even then. Should have went: undrafted

8 DeSagana Diop (C)
Senegal
Cleveland Cavaliers
Oak Hill Academy (Mouth of Wilson, VA)

Demonstrates need for patience when drafting high schoolers – pudgy teen now a low post defensive force, similar to Chandler/ Kwame, but less injury-prone. LeBron could really use him now, eh? Should have went: right here, 8.

9 Rodney White (SF)
United States
Detroit Pistons
Charlotte

Yikes. Never panned out – I wonder about headcase/ drugs. Should have went: undrafted

10 Joe Johnson (SG)
United States
Boston Celtics
Arkansas

Not only high schoolers deserve some patience, as we continue the youngsters who flowered after leaving original team. Good handle, good D, decent drive and outside shot, become selfish as a Hawk (though understandable). Should have went: 2

11 Kedrick Brown (SF)
United States
Boston Celtics (from Denver)
Okaloosa-Walton CC

Athletes without skills or basketball IQ do poorly. Should have went: undrafted

12 Vladimir Radmanovic (PF)
FR Yugoslavia
Seattle SuperSonics
FMP Zeleznik (Yugoslavia)

I wonder if he needs a particular kind of coach or system to flourish. Inconsistent effort, poor D, but sweet shot. Should have went: 23

13 Richard Jefferson (SF)
United States
Houston Rockets (traded to New Jersey)
Arizona

NJ’s steal already mentioned – but a bit of a disappointment, as he hasn’t really improved since his second season, and in particular still has no reliable jumper. Turning into inferior version of Battier, though with more vert – when not injured. Should have went: 7

14 Troy Murphy (PF)
United States
Golden State Warriors (from Indiana)
Notre Dame

Beware the dominating collegian big man without athleticism. Esp. if they never play D. Rebounds, hits occasional jumper, and kills the plus-minus in extended minutes. Should have went: 24

15 Steven Hunter (C)
United States
Orlando Magic
DePaul

Athletic, gives effort and some D, but too skinny. No offensive skills. Should have went: 26

16 Kirk Haston (PF)
United States
Charlotte Hornets
Indiana

Oh my god – see Murphy, but minus the offense. Picks like this help explain the demise of the Pacers. Should have went: undrafted

17 Michael Bradley (PF)
United States
Toronto Raptors
Villanova

See Haston. Should have went: undrafted.

18 Jason Collins (C)
United States
Houston Rockets (from New York via Phoenix and Orlando, traded to New Jersey)
Stanford

See, if you’re going to go with a collegian lacking something, make it a lack of offense, not defense. (For more recent examples, see Adam Morrison). As excellent post defender, Collins is not significantly worse than Diop/ Chandler/ Kwame, despite no offense whatsoever. Should have went: hey, 18!

19 Zach Randolph (PF)
United States
Portland Trail Blazers
Michigan State

On talent, goes much, much higher. On headcase, much lower. So comes out close to right. Should have went: 13

20 Brendan Haywood (C)
United States
Cleveland Cavaliers (from Miami, traded to Orlando)
North Carolina

A disappointment because of headcase issues and lack of offensive development, but that still leaves him in Collins territory. Should have went: 21

21 Joseph Forte (SG)
United States
Boston Celtics (from Phoenix)
North Carolina

Undersized 2-guards who won’t pass or defend are another bad risk, like Randolph Childress and too many others to mention. Should have went: undrafted

22 Jeryl Sasser (SG)
United States
Orlando Magic (from Milwaukee via Houston)
SMU

Would-be PGs who can’t pass or shoot, but are ‘big’, are another almost guaranteed miss. Should have went: undrafted

23 Brandon Armstrong (SG)
United States
Houston Rockets (from Dallas via Orlando, traded to New Jersey)
Pepperdine

See Forte. Should have went: undrafted.

24 Raul Lopez (PG)
Spain
Utah Jazz
Real Madrid (Spain)

How’s he playing in Europe? Should have went: undrafted.

25 Gerald Wallace (SF)
United States
Sacramento Kings
Alabama

On the other hand, crazy athletic swingmen who defend great and can dribble a little, but can’t shoot, are great bets to take. At worst, they become a Stacey Augmon or Bowen type. Sacto missed out when it didn’t hold on to him as Doug Christie faded. Should have went: 4

26 Samuel Dalembert (C)
Canada
Philadelphia 76ers
Seton Hall

Another disappointment, as he has Chandler/ Kwame skills but inconsistent effort and poor hoops IQ. Still got rich, though. Should have went: 25

27 Jamaal Tinsley (PG)
United States
Vancouver Grizzlies
Iowa State

Talented at passing and good D, injury-prone and poor character. Tough call, but dearth of real PGs in league (and weak draft) pushes him up. Should have went: 14

28 Tony Parker (PG)
France
San Antonio Spurs
Paris Basket Racing (France)
Why RC Buford is the best. If his jumper becomes reliable, perennial all-star, and is Finals MVP now. At 27, Hawks GM considered taking him, but decided to trade the pick. Just another of Atlanta’s fabulous decisions this decade. Should have went: 1

30 Trenton Hassell (SG)
United States
Chicago Bulls
Austin Peay

Again, taking ace defensive 2-guards, even if they cannot shoot, looks like a sound strategy, at least for rotation players. Should have went: 22

31 Gilbert Arenas (PG)
United States
Golden State Warriors
Arizona

This one’s hard to fathom, as he came from a big winning college program and had played D in college, and obviously had an excellent handle. The undersized 2-guard rule obviously affected him, but I still can’t imagine looking at him vs Sasser, Armstrong, or Lopez and thinking they’re better. I wonder if his quirkiness came across as bad character? Should have went: 4

38 Mehmet Okur (C/F)
Turkey
Detroit Pistons
Tofas Bursa (Turkey)

He and Troy Murphy should’ve switched places. The slightly greater athleticism makes a big difference in marginal cases. Should have went: 10

40 Earl Watson (PG)
United States
Seattle SuperSonics
UCLA

UCLA went through a down period when he was there, and he didn’t score much – but still. NBA teams underrate pure point guard skills. Should have went: 16

42 Bobby Simmons (F/G)
United States
Seattle SuperSonics
DePaul

Would deserve higher if he wasn’t hurt so much. Had one really nice season for the Clippers. Should have went: 17

53 Jarron Collins (F/C)
United States
Utah Jazz
Stanford

Coup for Utah – not really any different from his brother. Should have went: 19

undrafted players

Carlos Arroyo (PG), Puerto Rico and Florida International
Can score, can’t defend, inconsistent effort, needs right system. Should have went: 20

Maurice Evans (SG/SF), Texas – see Gerald Wallace. Finally given regular PT, he was a revelation for the Lakers this season. Crazy that he wasn’t drafted and had to play overseas first. Should be a valuable swingman for years. Should have went: 11

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