Thursday, June 28, 2007

Quick draft thoughts

1. Zabian Dowdell (PG, Va Tech) and Kyle Visser (beefy C, Wake Forest) were undrafted, but I (and Hollinger) were relatively high on both of them. So I hope they go to camp with a team I like....

2. Maybe Danny Ainge isn't a complete idiot. Under pressure to improve rapidly and with only the #5 pick and an expiring contract (Ratliff) as major bait, he tried for KG and Shawn Marion, but both made clear through their agents they would be only one year rentals. So he trades the pick for an amazingly efficient scorer who complements Pierce's driving game beautifully in Ray Allen, AND gets a potential starting C/PF in Glen Davis at 35 in return! If no more deals are made, I expect BOTH players to start for Boston next year (alongside Pierce, Rondo, and Jefferson), and for Boston to make the playoffs next season. And because he traded Wally S. instead, Ainge still has Ratliff's expiring contract to facilitate another deal - or to give him some cap room next summer.

3. The deep pockets of Paul Allen and shrewd moves by Kevin Pritchard over the past 2 drafts mean Portland may have the brightest future of any team in the league. They have an embarrassment of riches in prospects at practically every position. Here's their roster as of now:

PG Jarrett Jack, Sergio Rodriguez, Petteri Koponen, Taurean Green
SG Brandon Roy, Rudy Fernandez, Martell Webster, Steve Francis
SF Ime Udoka, Travis Outlaw, Darius Miles
PF LaMarcus Aldridge, Channing Frye, Josh McRoberts, Raef LaFrentz
C Greg Oden, Joel Przybilla, Jamaal Magloire, Luke Schenscher

Jamaal Magloire, Ime Udoka, Travis Outlaw and Luke Schenscher are free agents and may not return, Steve Francis might be bought out, and Rudy Fernandez and Petteri Koponen may well stay overseas for now, but there is still a wealth of young talent and even possibly cap room in a couple of years, when LaFrentz and Miles come off the books. And obviously moves could still be made - SF is the position most clearly still needing an upgrade, and they have a plethora of young PGs, a position of need for many teams - perhaps Atlanta would trade a Josh Smith or Marvin Williams for a PG or 2? They may not be able to make the playoffs in the loaded West next season, but they look to have a bright future.

4. Meanwhile, how are Eddy Curry and Zach Randolph going to share the low block - or play any defense? And is there any possibility Zach could get in trouble in the NYC nightlife? Isiah may have outdone himself this time.... surely he'll trade David Lee for some overpriced vet next. Or worse, just not give him any minutes.

5. Finally, congrats to my childhood fave, the Atlanta Hawks. They did the right thing in picking Horford at 3, and Acie Law is defensible at 11. If they simply stay the course and don't screw things up, they will be a playoff team soon, perhaps even this season - if Horford is a serious ROY candidate, as I expect him to be.

2 comments:

Psych Pundit said...

I, too, like the Hawks' choice of Horford at #3, but think they'll regret taking Acie Law at #11 in lieu of Rodney Stuckey (grabbed by Detroit at #15). Even though he's been scouted as a 'combo guard' rathe than a pure point, Stuckey actually had more assists per game than Law last year (5.5 vs 5.0), as well as vastly better steals and rebounding numbers. If you believe Hollinger's numbers, he projects out much bette than Law in the NBA.

Keith said...

To be honest, I've never actually seen Stuckey play a live game - only highlights, so I don't feel strongly about him one way or the other. I will say he played against inferior competition to Law, so simple stats comparisons need to be taken with a grain of salt - though Hollinger used a strength of competition adjustment and he still came out ahead. Law appears to be a clutch 'winner' type player, a slightly better Jameer Nelson, and I think that does mean something.