The draft – first, a statistical look

First, the draft according to John Hollinger’s formula – it only includes collegians, so we’ll have to guess/ interpolate where he would rank foreigners. His formula includes a significant age adjustment, so if Yi is really 19, he would probably be a lottery pick; if he’s actually 22 (as most believe), then drop him towards the end of the first round… I would guess (and this is just my guess, with nothing explicit from Hollinger - and assuming he’s 19, as the Chinese officials insist) that Hollinger would have him somewhere in the 7-10 range; and in some more wild-ass guessing, a few foreign guards (Petteri Koponen, Rudy Fernandez, Marco Belinelli, Renaldas Seibutis) and bigs (Kyrylo Fesenko, Sun Yue, Stanko Barac, Ali Traore) might conceivably be in the 20s….

Partial explanation – again, for a full one, see his original article –

Space between picks = at least 14 pt difference between consecutive picks (so no space between means the players are very close in talent, e.g. #s 4-6); his system has an over 500 score = traditional lottery to mid-first round pick, with 16 (above average) college players over 500 this year

1. Kevin Durant (with a bullet - way ahead of Oden!)

2.Greg Oden

3. Mike Conley Jr.

4.Thaddeus Young
5.Brandan Wright
6. Al Horford

7. Nick Fazekas

(Yi?)

8.Josh McRoberts
9. Rodney Stuckey

10. Jared Dudley

11.Joakim Noah
12.Glen Davis
13.Sean Williams
14. Jeff Green
15. Kyle Visser
16. Herbert Hill
17. Javaris Crittenton
18. Wilson Chandler
19. Julian Wright
20. Daequan Cook
21. D.J. Strawberry
22. Jason Smith
23. Alando Tucker
24. Corey Brewer
25. Al Thornton
26. Marcus Williams
27. Acie Law
28. Aaron Gray
29. Zabian Dowdell
30. Spencer Hawes

Other notables
31 Morris Almond
32 Derrick Byars
33 Gabe Pruitt
34 Nick Young
35 Taurean Green
36 Arron Afflalo
37 Ramon Sessions