Keith's first annual mock draft (2007)

Now, my first annual official mock draft – SI or anyone, care to join me? (First round only, and what teams should do, assuming they keep their picks – i.e., day of draft trades cannot be incorporated. So I’m assuming e.g. that Atlanta has picks 3 and 11). My rationale – when we look back in 5 to 8 years, who will be the best players from this draft? Position matters only insofar as that player will get an opportunity over that 5-8 year timespan – so position almost never makes a difference, unless you’re, say, a PG drafted by the Hornets or a SG drafted by the Lakers (assuming Kobe stays) .....

1. Portland - Greg Oden, Ohio St – a no-brainer, likely to be somewhere between Ewing and the Admiral in effectiveness
2. Seattle - Kevin Durant, Texas – Carmelo Anthony plus a few more rebounds. Will lead the league in scoring, but never be a legit MVP.
3. Atlanta - Al Horford, Fla – think Carlos Boozer to Elton Brand – hope he stays healthy.
4 Memphis - Mike Conley Jr., Ohio St – a young Tony Parker with better D. He and Horford are very close on my board, but Parker learned how to shoot after coming into the league – will Conley?
5 Boston - Joakim Noah, Fla – Varejao crossed with Rodman – terrific D, should board well, a leader, no scoring
6 Milwaukee – Glen Davis, LSU – vastly underrated because of weight issue – if he keeps it off, he’s a beast, a real ‘Baby Shaq’ – a 20/10 monster. I considered him as high as 2nd.
7 Minnesota – Corey Brewer, Fla. Worst case scenario is Bruce Bowen, not Todd Day – because he’s not a headcase.
8. Charlotte - Brandan Wright, UNC. More promise (because better freshman year) than Marvin Williams, an otherwise similar super-raw frosh out of UNC
9 Chicago -Thaddeus Young, GT. Looks like a 20 pt scorer on the wing for a long time – Mitch Richmond?
10 Sacto - Rodney Stuckey – combo guard does a little bit of everything. Best case scenario is Joe Dumars, but likely less – which is still darn good
11 Atlanta – Sean (Pothead) Williams, BC. Half the league tokes, so... why not take a Rasheed Wallace-type talent (though without the outside shot).
12 Philly - Josh McRoberts, Duke. They need everything, but esp. a PF – but all the good ones are gone; they hope Hollinger and the scouts from the last 2 years are right about McRoberts, and not the Duke fans.
13 New Orleans – Jared Dudley, BC. The Shane Battier lite of this draft, and they need wing players.
14 LA Clippers – Acie Law, Texas A&M. He and Brewer are my first major disagreements with Hollinger’s rankings. He may never be a star, but given NBA PGs, I think he can be a starter and clutch player – Sam Cassell lite.

End of the lottery – and no Yi, you may notice.

15. Detroit - Nick Fazekas, Nevada. Think Keith van Horn, who could shoot and help a team when surrounded by sound defenders. Detroit fits perfectly.
16. Washington - Jeff Green, Georgetown. Local kid should be a solid but unspectacular pro.
17. NJ Nets - Herbert Hill, Providence. They need a bigtime rebounder who’s overlooked – cf. Paul Millsap last year.
18. Golden St. - Julian Wright, Kansas. A tweener who can’t shoot, but should defend well and contribute as marginal starter/ solid bench force.
19. LA Lakers - Zabian Dowdell, Va Tech. I like him best of the remaining point guards – sorta like Acie Law, solid at several things, great at none.
20. Miami – Nick Young, USC. Hollinger is way down on him, but uberathletic guards often outperform their college stats – see Gerald Wallace. Young would be higher, but I don’t see him having Wallace’s defensive ability, making him closer to Dahntay Jones than Wallace. And I see D. Wade leaving Miami after Shaq retires...
21. Philly - Kyle Visser, WF. Philly needs power players, and here I defer to Hollinger’s rankings – he’s the best left on the board.
22. Charlotte – Tiago Splitter, Brazil – should be a solid defender and non-scorer akin to countryman Varejao.
23. Knicks - D.J. Strawberry, Maryland. Isiah won’t take anyone as defensively ept as this legacy. He could easily have Eric Snow’s career.
24. Phoenix - Al Thornton, FSU. He should be a solid bench scorer with little else to contribute and have a relatively short career, as he’s old for a rook and will be worthless once he loses a step.
25 Utah - Petteri Koponen, PG, Finland. A better and taller version of Beno Udrih. Or, if you prefer, Steve Blake.
26 Houston – SG Rudy Fernandez, Spain. Good Eurostats but painfully skinny, so will be manhandled and a poor defender here. Could still be good rotation player as long as coach is aware of matchups – i.e., don’t guard a Kobe or Bonzi Wells or Maurice Evans.
27 Detroit – SG Marco Belinelli, Italy. See Rudy Fernandez.
28 Spurs – Jason Smith, Col St. Much higher if he could shoot 3s or was bulkier – but he isn’t. Somewhere between Brad Sellars on the low end and Keith van Horn on the high end.
29 Phoenix - Taurean Green, Fla. We’re into the Jacques Vaughn backup PGs who don’t kill you and play decent D phase now.
30 Philly - Derrick Byars, Vandy. A mediocre backup swingman – best case is Mo Peterson.

And finally, some words of warning -
Predicted BUSTS – These fellows may go in the lottery to mid-first round, but I predict they will suck!

YI JIANLIAN – failed to dominate in inferior Chinese league and is probably 22 – if the Hawks use the #3 on him instead of getting Amare Stoudamire in trade, Billy Knight may go down as worst GM ever.

Javaris Crittenton, PG, Ga Tech – big points who aren’t quick, and turn it over when they penetrate, don’t work out – see my review of Jeryl Sasser from 2001.

Spencer Hawes, C, Washington. Will be lucky to be as good as his journeyman uncle Steve Hawes was – a career backup. Will be routinely abused on defense, sure to be seen as the dunkee in many posters to come. Shawn Bradley, minus 6 inches?

Gabe Pruitt, PG, USC – surrounded by better players in college, not really very good.

Arron Afflalo, SG, UCLA – see Gabe Pruitt.