Summer 2008 – Shaun Livingston has made only a halting recovery in the 20 games played since he returned from his knee reconstruction, and signs are the Clippers are unconvinced he’s worth the money and will allow him to leave via restricted free agency this summer, joining Sam Cassell, Quentin Ross, Corey Maggette and Elton Brand as free agents on the way out of town. The hot rumor has the Spurs after Brand, who at this time (pending the draft and other possible re-signings) have only have three players under contract -- Parker, Ginobili and Duncan. Now that KG and Marion have re-upped with their teams, all signs are that Elton Brand will be a Spur soon and help Tim Duncan in his quest to catch Bill Russell’s record of 11 titles….
How can the Clippers avoid such a return to NBA laughingstock? They will have to take some chances, but there are plausible scenarios for so doing. Let’s begin by assessing the team, and then laying out some scenarios for improving the Clippers.
First, a retrospective: 2005-6 was easily the best season in Clipper history – they crushed Denver in the first round of the playoffs, and took Phoenix to 7 games in the second round; if not for a brain cramp by Daniel Ewing in allowing a literal last-second Raja Bell 3 (or by Coach Dunleavy for putting him in the situation), the Clippers would’ve played Dallas in the conference finals. They then added Phoenix playoff star Tim Thomas to augment a powerful frontcourt rotation, and figured Corey Maggette would have to be healthier than the year before.
So, hopes were thus high heading into the 2006-7 season; pundits universally saw the Clippers as a playoff team, and many saw them making the second round again and winning at least 50 games. The reality was quite a bit different. At the start of the season, every single rotation player (except Cuttino Mobley) was playing worse than the season previous, even Elton Brand, who after an arduous summer playing for Team USA (and then producing a movie and getting married) descended from the stratosphere of a top-5 player in the league to merely all-star level. (And Mobley fell off in the second half of the season.)
Without Elton carrying the team by himself, the dropoff of all the average players to something less spelled big trouble. Especially disappointing was the lack of progress by presumed prodigy Shaun Livingston (and then his season-ending, career-threatening injury), which when combined with Sam Cassell’s regression and renewed fragility made PG play a millstone that sunk their playoff hopes (to mix metaphors).
Meanwhile, Corey Maggette was feuding with Coach Dunleavy over his role (he wanted to start, not be a 6th man) and his defense, and Zeljko Rebraca, a valuable offensive force off the bench in 2005-6, was injured and out for the season, and later released. The Clippers were a dysfunctional bunch, made worse by the evident lack of compatibility in the frontcourt between the star Brand and the prospect Kaman – both played better when the other was out of the game, largely because Kaman selfishly forced shots and disrupted the offense whenever Elton was in the game.
With the season going down the tubes and Daniel Ewing the only healthy PG on the roster, the Clippers signed Jason Hart off waivers and put him in the starting lineup – and miraculously, the Clippers began playing much better. (Maggette started playing much better at this time too, perhaps because the trade deadline passed and he knew he would remain a Clipper for the rest of the season – and injuries forced Dunleavy to reinsert him in the starting lineup.) With a week to go, the Clippers were in 8th place in the West, and despite their vicissitudes, controlled their fate for a playoff spot. But a terrible home loss to Sacramento on the final Sunday of the season (in which everyone but Brand stunk up the joint) meant Golden State would have to lose one of their final two games for the Clips to sneak in – and the Warriors didn’t. The conclusion:
40-42, 4th place Pacific Division, 9th in Western Conference
Being the best team to miss the playoffs only means one gets the last pick in the lottery.
...
In an article entitled “NBA Market Watch: Los Angeles Clippers” by Heather N. Allen, Paul Gearan, and Bradley Sutton, they have a scale that maps players from below to above league average on both offense and defense. I can use their scale to summarize the Clipper roster (and contract status) as follows – using (!) to indicate disagreement with their conclusions:
EB – 2 more seasons, good (well above average) on offense and defense
Cuttino – 3 more, near average on offense but worse on D
CMag, 2 more, good O, average D
QRoss, 1 more, same as Maggette (!! - this is a prima facie rejection of their method, as Ross is clearly better on defense than offense!)
TThomas, 3 more, average on both
Kaman, 4 more, good D (!), bad O
Cassell, 1 more, average on O, bad on D
SLivingston, 2 more, below ave, especially on O (perhaps the trade rumors bothered him, or his knee hurt more than let on, even before the official injury)
Other players - Non-rotation (not enough minutes for meaningful evaluation) with 1 more year on contract –Aaron Williams, Paul Davis
Possible re-sign/ team option: Jason Hart, D Ewing, JSingleton, WConroy, YKorolev
Contract rights to players overseas: Guillermo Diaz, Sofoklis Schortsianitis
Usage (% of possessions) in order, greatest to least:
SCassell, CMag, EB, TThomas, SLiv, Kaman, Mobley, Hart, Ross
(it’s a problem when easily your most efficient player is only 3rd in usage %, despite being the ‘star’ - teamwork and PG play killed the Clips last year.)
....
The Clipper draft – Chad Ford's summary:
"Al Thornton slipped because of his age (24) and questions about his wrist -- but he has an NBA-ready game. His arrival makes it appear that Corey Maggette is back on the trading block.
Jared Jordan is one of the best pure point guards in this draft class. He's not big or athletic, but he has a sixth sense for seeing the floor that's akin to the way injured Clippers point guard Shaun Livingston does."
It seems safe to say that Thornton could be in the rotation, perhaps even a starter, next season, but duplicates Maggette's skills and role on the team; and Jordan should make the team and could become a backup PG soon.
...
What to do?
If Minnesota wanted to reload with young up and comers, rather than just take expiring contracts, the Clips could make a moderately enticing offer for KG:
KG for Corey Maggette, Tim Thomas, Chris Kaman, Shaun Livingston, and the return of the future Minnesota 1st rounder owed to the Clippers.
That would leave a Clipper team of – EB, KG, PDavis, and AWilliams up front; Cuttino Mobley, AlThornton, QRoss, and JSingleton at the wings, and at PG- Sam Cassell, Jared Jordan, Jason Hart and perhaps Conroy or Ewing. If they signed Papaloukas (likely to require the full midlevel to do so) and brought Schortsianitis over, they would even have experience and depth.
Kaman, Livingston, and Maggette have all been deemed untouchable at various points last season, but the drafting of Al Thornton makes clear that Maggette is on the block, and Livingston’s injury means he is surely dealable if the team wants to win this season. If the Clips do nothing, they appear headed for the lottery again in an increasingly loaded West, and Elton Brand isn’t getting any younger. If owner Donald Sterling is willing to spend, then the pieces above could get a KG, Jermaine O’Neal, or another upgrade from a team looking to build for the future. Otherwise, they should keep Livingston and look at dealing at least Cassell, Brand and Maggette and begin to rebuild themselves.
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