Saturday, June 30, 2007

Marc Stein's fuzzy math

Marc Stein's article assays 6 possible destinations for Kevin Garnett this summer. Like many a lazy article on this topic, however, Stein doesn't bother to check whether his scenarios are even possible under the salary cap - although he does mention that all of Garnett's trade kicker ($6.75 million) must, as of July 1, be added to his $22 million salary for 2007-08 to make the deal work under the cap. That is, if traded, Kevin is owed $28.75 million next season, and so a team must come within 25% of that in what salary it sends out - a minimum of about $23 million.

So, most of the deals Stein mentions ARE NOT POSSIBLE under the salary cap. That makes most of his article bogus. For example, to pair KG with both Paul Pierce and Ray Allen, Boston would have to trade virtually the rest of the team - including bad contracts like Scalabrine's - to get the deal to work. In a league that has 5 players on the floor at a time, 3 man rosters aren't a winning strategy.

For Phoenix, Amare plus the expiring contracts of Thomas and Piatkowski aren't enough either - Phoenix would have to add more, non-expiring contracts, like Diaw and Barbosa. Only the Lakers could easily absorb the hit without losing most of their roster, and even they don't have enough expiring contracts (only Kwame). It looks like Minnesota will need a 3 or 4-team trade or must give up its hope of dramatic salary cap off-loading - once more, it looks like McHale waited too late to make a deal.

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