The tier system and the Hawks’ incompetence

In drafting by tiers, one selects the player that most fits one’s needs from the highest tier available; so if only one player from the highest tier is available when you pick, you automatically take him. But if several players in the highest tier are available, you take the one that best fits your team’s needs.

Chad Ford explains by an example:

“Let me give you an example from the worst-drafting team over the last few years, the Atlanta Hawks.

Hawks GM Billy Knight has stated that he takes the best player on the board, regardless of team need. He's proven that the last few years by taking Marvin Williams ahead of Chris Paul and Deron Williams in 2005, and taking Shelden Williams ahead of a point guard such as Rajon Rondo in 2006.

A source formerly with Atlanta's front office told me that the Hawks had Marvin Williams ranked No. 1, Andrew Bogut ranked No. 2, Deron Williams ranked No. 3 and Paul ranked No. 4 in 2005. So on draft night, Knight took Marvin Williams with the No. 2 pick after the Bucks selected Bogut No. 1 overall.

In a tier system, however, the source conceded that all four players, in his mind at least, would have been Tier 1 players -- in other words, the Hawks thought all four had equal long-term impact potential. If the Hawks had employed a tier system, they would have ranked inside the tier based on team need and fit, rather than just ranking the prospects from one to 30.

In that case, the Hawks likely would have ranked either Bogut (they needed a center) or Deron Williams (they still need a point guard) No. 1. Marvin Williams actually would have been ranked No. 4 under that scenario.”

As the Hawks actually had the second pick, then by using the tier system they would’ve drafted Deron Williams, and so far, that looks much wiser than Marvin Williams – though Marvin remains very young, so the jury is still out.

This year’s draft tiers, according to Ford:

TIER 1 – Oden and Durant
TIER 2- Corey Brewer, Mike Conley, Jeff Green, Al Horford, Yi Jianlian, Brandan Wright
TIER 3- Spencer Hawes, Joakim Noah, Al Thornton, Julian Wright
TIER 4- Javaris Crittenton, Acie Law, Rodney Stuckey, Nick Young, Thaddeus Young
TIER 5- Morris Almond, Josh McRoberts, Gabe Pruitt, Jason Smith, Tiago Splitter, Sean Williams
TIER 6- Arron Afflalo, Marco Belinelli, Derrick Byars, Daequan Cook, Glen Davis, Jared Dudley, Nick Fazekas, Rudy Fernandez, Marc Gasol, Taurean Green, Petteri Koponen, Marcus Williams

(Ford has 36 players for 30 slots because he claims he included in Tier 6 every player that a team told him was in its first round.)

But in practice, teams seem to really have only 3 players in Tier 2 – Conley, Horford, and Yi. If mock drafts can be trusted, the rest of tier 2 seems to blend into tier 3.

In any case, by Ford’s logic, to continue the case of Atlanta, this year they would pick Conley (biggest need is PG) with pick #3, and probably Hawes (or Noah, if somehow he fell that far – not likely) with pick 11, as center is their second biggest need. But if I’m right, that would be disastrous; Conley may be a defensible pick, but Hawes is a BUST waiting to happen. Far better would be to take Horford and pray for Noah at 11, or if he's gone, Brewer (if he drops), Law, or Stuckey. Or, of course, I would pick Glen Davis, aka Big Baby, as the highest rated player on my mock likely to be around at #11. Perhaps that eventuality would be reason to go with Conley at 3 - but better would be to trade down from 3 to 5 or 6 and take Conley, as many teams want to go up to 3 for Horford. Honestly, if he's really going to be an all-star quality PF like Elton Brand, I wouldn't take the chance. The Hawks should take Horford, and damn the tiers.... this year.

Unless the Hawks miracle occurs and Amare really does become a Hawk....